PA - Trafalgar: Biden +2% (user search)
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  PA - Trafalgar: Biden +2% (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA - Trafalgar: Biden +2%  (Read 1601 times)
pbrower2a
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Posts: 26,868
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« on: September 20, 2020, 12:19:13 PM »

TRAsh. FALsehood. GARbage.
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pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,868
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2020, 03:16:39 AM »


You really think Biden is gonna win a 413 landslide that never happened since 1964, it will be a 291-247 election like Cook has it

It's within the range of possibility in the event that Trump really fouls up and does more to offend voters.

New Hampshire is likely the difference between 228 and 232 electoral votes. The next states that fall for Biden are Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Arizona (11), Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), and Texas (32), with the often-wayward second districts of Maine and Nebraska (1 each) in there. That's a huge number of electoral votes in that range, all but those of the two Second Districts and Iowa in states with at least ten electoral votes.

At this point, Michigan is probably out of reach for Trump (as the late Ernie Harwell said of a home run "it's lawnng gonnne"). Still the range of 181 electoral votes is only ten states (all but Iowa at least ten electoral votes) and two wayward districts.

In landslides, the winner typically wins almost all the close races, and this is possible. Presidential elections are close -- or they aren't. This election is going to gravitate to about 290 electoral votes for Biden or something in the 360-413 range. Trump's campaign is in shambles, but there is always the chance that he will come up with a surprise that has Democrats sweating on November 3. It is also possible that his campaign will disintegrate. 
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