It's about Michigan's sixth Congressional district, which includes Kalamazoo, St. Joseph, Cass, Berrien, Van Buren, and Allegan Counties. Aside from Kalamazoo-Portage, the 'micropolitan' area of St. Josph and Benton Harbor, and Niles (now practically a suburb of South Bend, Indiana) it is a very rural and agricultural district. Other cities include Sturgis, Three Rivers, Allegan, and South Haven, none of which even approach 20,000 people. I know this district well.I used to live there and I have been all over it.
It is about a Congressional District. Fred Upton had talked about retiring, and the GOP hadn't found someone to take over for him.
It is no unbiased survey, as this prose suggests:
The 6th District in Michigan covers six counties in the southwest corner of Michigan, with Kalamazoo as its largest city. Fred Upton has been the Congressman here for an astounding 34 years; but his tepid acquiescence to Donald Trump may have finally shaken 6th District voters awake. The coronavirus crisis is causing a realignment across the country as people seek real leadership. State Representative Jon Hoadley has represented Kalamazoo in Lansing for 6 years, and he represents a fresh face and a community-based approach that this area sorely needs. They have tired of Fred Upton, and it is well past time for a change. Michigan 6th voters have a unique opportunity to put a real leader to work for them in Congress in Jon Hoadley.
I am a Democratic hack, and I can recognize this loaded language. Fred Upton has two possible assets for his campaign: his daughter is supermodel Kate Upton Verlander and his son-in-law is future Hall of Fame pitcher Justin Verlander. If Verlander isn't pitching the Houston Astros into the playoffs, he might do some other pitching this year -- for his father-in-law.
The district:
If this district goes for Joe Biden in November, then Donald Trump will be savaged electorally in Michigan. This district is in many ways much more like Indiana than like the rest of Michigan. It is R+4.
This district went for Obama in 2008, barely went for Romney in 2012, and went for Trump by 9% in 2016. If Biden wins this district by 3% (there are far too many undecided in a 47-44 split), then he is likely winning Michigan by 7-8%.
Overpowering foreign policy, any talk of political corruption, and even the economy:
This might be a Republican-leaning area, but the voters clearly know who is taking care of this crisis – Governor Whitmer’s job rating for “dealing with the coronavirus is 56% positive and 43% negative, while Donald Trump’s rating is 43% positive to 55% negative. And they largely have no idea what Fred Upton is doing to help them – his rating is 26% positive to 34% negative, with the bulk of voters saying they are not sure how he is doing.
Cough, cough. This district skews elderly, and even if the economic damage relating to a shutdown is likely to not outlast the shutdown by much, deaths from COVID-19 are forever. I question whether there will be much forgiveness of the President. As the 2008 and 2016 elections show, this district can swing in Presidential elections. Younger voters are not going to forgive any politician who has given Donald Trump any slack. Upton can win, but he will have to assert himself as someone who can separate himself from Donald Trump. It is a pity in a way, as Trump ruined plenty of Congressional careers in 2018 and may wreck a few more in 2020, including those who were in office before long Trump entered the political scene.
