In 2008, Obama made it easy because he was winning a bunch of states with margins similar to those of Reagan in 1984 while losing a bunch of states with margins similar to those of McGovern in 1972. Once the networks called Ohio, there was just no reasonable way for McCain to win. The networks waited for the formality of the states on the West Coast to close, but they knew what was coming. The network that I watched said that as it called California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington that the margin of the popular vote was still razor-thin but that the numbers from the West Coast would make it a wide margin. Then the networks started calling Colorado, Florida, and Virginia. The networks had run out of votes in Ohio an hour and a half earlier. (All times are Eastern).
Figuring that it will not be Trump will not be the one to win a landslide, we might see early indicators of a landslide against him. At 7PM (using red for D wins and orange for D leads, blue for R wins and orange for R leads, and white for near ties) but yellowing the results when states are called, we might see something like this at 7PM:
Margin 10%+ D lead D win R win R lead 70% saturation Margin 5-9.9%+ D lead D win R win R lead 50% saturation Margin 1-4.9%+ D lead D win R win R lead 30% saturation Margin under 1%+ D lead D win R win R lead 20% saturation -- a razor-thin lead for anyone is in white
yellow -- next batch of states to be called
Kentucky is a surprise only in that the Trump lead, although beyond any chance of a Democrat winning it, is decidedly narrower than usual. Vermont was never in doubt. The media are questioning where the votes are coming from in the Southeast. Ordinarily the rural votes in Virginia come in early and the urban votes come in late, but the media want to be sure. Has Atlanta become unusually efficient in counting its votes? Indiana has over 60% of its votes in, but there is a big problem with that for guessing which way the wind is blowing in the Hoosier State. The votes are largely already in from the Eastern Time Zone, and the polls just closed only in the northwestern and southwestern corners of the state.
But that is the limited information that anyone has at 7PM. There is some clear wisdom in precedent: that no Republican nominee since the 1920s has won a Presidential election in the Electoral College without winning Indiana by more than a 10% margin. Some votes may still be coming in from Indianapolis, Evansville, Gary, Hammond, and Michigan City... and those are not going to give Trump any 60-40 advantage.
At 7:30 two more states are closed, and West Virginia, which goes by about a 57-43 margin for Trump as one reasonably expects and is an instant call. Ohio gives no meaningful result quickly. Nothing really changes by 7:30 except that the rural vote is much weaker for Trump in the southeastern US than is usual. Virginia is usually a slow call for a Democrat, with the network news typically not calling it until the urban precincts give the Democrat a lead that the Democrat will not relinquish.
At this point Trump leads 13-3 in the Electoral College. That is as good as things will get for him.
Margin 10%+ D lead D win R win R lead 70% saturation Margin 5-9.9%+ D lead D win R win R lead 50% saturation Margin 1-4.9%+ D lead D win R win R lead 30% saturation Margin under 1%+ D lead D win R win R lead 20% saturation -- a razor-thin lead for anyone is in white
yellow -- next batch of states to be closed
At 7:53 PM the networks quit biting their tongues on Virginia. They have decided that in view of the exit polls and the lackluster showing of Trump in rural votes, Trump has no chance of winning Virginia. At least he lost Virginia in 2016, so nothing really changes the narrative yet. The D lead in Virginia is about 6%, and it is not going to stay there as the urban precincts start reporting over the evening. The margin will get even worse! Meanwhile, the Democrat takes a slight, but indecisive lead in Ohio.
Margin 10%+ D lead D win R win R lead 70% saturation Margin 5-9.9%+ D lead D win R win R lead 50% saturation Margin 1-4.9%+ D lead D win R win R lead 30% saturation Margin under 1%+ D lead D win R win R lead 20% saturation -- a razor-thin lead for anyone is in white
yellow -- next batch of states to be closed
(This is part of a series, and I will soon be doing the election from 8PM to 8:59 PM). Go ahead and comment on what you see so far if you wish.