The Skowronek Theory of Presidential Cycles

[pbrower2a]

The worst two losses by incumbent Presidents in the 20th century were Hoover (1932) and Carter (1980) That is 48 years apart. I came to the conclusion, even before the Mueller report came out, that Donald Trump is headed to defeat because six keys have turned against him in the Lichtman test.

He lost the Party mandate because his Party lost seats (in fact the majority) in the midterm election. He faces a serious challenge in the primary election in former Governor William Weld (I saw this as the killer, and it happened yesterday before the exposure of the bulk of the Mueller Report), 'his' economy cannot do better than the Obama economy (which rises from a would-be replay of the Great Depression), social unrest in the form of racist and terrorist attacks has happened with the President mishandling the situations, HIS IS THE MOST PERVASIVELY CORRUPT ADMINISTRATION IN AMERICAN HISTORY, and America's usual allies find him an embarrassment.

The Mueller Report is an embarrassment, but it simply loads onto the perception of a fantastically-corrupt Presidency. Such looks like the most likely theme of Presidential failure.