Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[pbrower2a]

That those are Texas numbers is the real shock. They show one of two things:

(1) that Texas is rapidly moving to the Left with respect to America as a whole (which I do not see),
(2) a Presidency in disarray (which I see).

OK, Texas demographics (quickly-growing Hispanic, especially Mexican-American minority; improving educational standards; people moving out of "Blue" states and taking their politics with them -- see also Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada) could cause Texas to drift some. 

The heyday of Republicans winning all statewide races is over. Republicans have done all that they could to  reshape the political culture of Texas, but there is only so far that one can go.

Texas has been a clean-government state for a long time -- from when Democrats were dominant. Trump is monstrously corrupt, and that is inconsistent with Texas values.  A corrupt federal government in disarray? Texans dislike that.

[pbrower2a]

In a wave election, the Dems don't have to outright win TX, they have to play the expectations game, and come close enough, so that statewide Dems in the close Senate races: AZ, GA, NC, and TX, deep red states, come close enough to flip the Senate back to the Dems.

With a 304-234, victory map, certain red state senate races can flip.

Democrats don't win close elections. Its going to be a bloodbath when they win whether its 2020 or 2022 or 2024 or heaven forbid 2026 and 2028.

Republicans have had more success in close elections for President because they trcognize that the States elect the President, and the People do not. Republicans succeed by winning the right votes and discouraging the 'wrong' ones from voting. So it was with Lee Atwater and Karl Rove, and so it is today.

2012 was 'close to being close'; Obama would have barely won the Electoral College had Florida gone to Mitt Romney. 

[pbrower2a]

Critical Insights - Maine (RV):

Approve - 34%
Disapprove - 58%

That’s terrible although this poll might be Dem-friendly. He better hope he doesn’t perform this poorly on Election Day.

Their Fall 2018 survey had Trump at 41/50.

Maine, close in 2016, will not be close in 2020.

Yes, I know that it is possible for an incumbent President to thoroughly tank in a couple of states that one barely won or barely lost when elected  in the next election and still win nationwide. Think of how badly Obama lost Indiana and Missouri in 2012. But Obama had more cushion, and he still won most of his bare wins of 2008 in 2012. Trump has practically no cushion.

I look at the arguable swing states as AZ, FL, IA, MI. PA, NC, and WI. Iowa doesn't figure, but any theree of the other states lose the election for Trump -- and two of the st+ates flip the election to the Democrat if  if one of them is Florida.
 

Senator Susan Collins' approval is now barely underwater at 41-42 in approval. It is probably that the vote for Judge Drunk-enough has taken her down. Sure, disapproval is still manageable, but it looks as if much of the approval that she once had as an alleged moderate has become 'undecided'  That is how electoral losses begin.

Meanwhile, approval for Senator Angus King is at 57% (57-22), which is a nice place to be before an election. It's about where Susan Collins used to be.

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%




[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

I was polled in Michigan -- Presidency, Senate, Congress, and the "Green New Deal".

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina: Emerson, May 31-June 3, 932 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 52

Trump also has terrible head-to-head results in this poll.  I'm somewhat skeptical about the sample, which seems too highly educated (54% with a college degree).

It doesn't change the map. That said, there are other points worthy of consideration:Republican Senator Thom Tillis appears to be in a vulnerable position facing re-election against potential Democratic opponent, State Senator Erica Smith, who leads Tillis 46% to 39%, with 15% of voters undecided. Neither does the polling from Michigan (see above).

In the Governor’s race, the incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper leads his potential Republican opponent Lt. Governor Dan Forest, 52% to 38%, with 10% undecided.

(common noun decapitalized)

Ouch, if you are a Republican.

Issues:

When asked about recent abortion legislation in the states of Alabama, Georgia and Missouri, a majority of voters (56%) oppose North Carolina passing similar restrictions, with 32% supporting such legislation. 12% of voters are unsure on the subject. Republicans buck the trend with 56% in support of similar legislation, while 29% of Independents and 14% of Democrats support similar legislation. There is no difference based on gender.

On international relations, a majority of voters (51%) oppose sending troops to Iran, with 17% supporting sending troops, and 32% unsure on this issue. There is little support for troop intervention at the present time, with Democrats and Independents opposing sending troops by  6 to 1. Republicans are split, with 30% in support and 27% opposed, 42% are undecided on sending the troops to Iran question.

Glengariff poll, Michigan, for WDIV-TV (NBC-4, Detroit) and the Detroit News. Likely voters:



 

Every Democrat leads Trump in a binary choice in Michigan, but especially Biden and Sanders:



Impeachment?



Not yet.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/06/05/amash-presidential-bid-hurts-biden-michigan/1331256001/

....................

Amash is far better known in parts of Michigan, as he is from the Grand Rapids area. I see Michigan going to Biden about as it did for Obama in 2008 if one does not consider conservative or libertarian alternatives as choices in Michigan, or like it did for Reagan against Carter in 1980 with such a conservative or libertarian alternative. Obama in 2008 was much more impressive than Reagan in 1980 in Michigan.

Although matchups between Trump and Democrats other than Biden and Sanders give wider disparities than do those with lesser-known opponents, this may reflect name recognition better than anything else. Whoever wins the Democratic nomination for President will have  name recognition -- fast.

If you were wondering whether I was polled for this one: no. That is another poll.


Texas: Quinnipiac.

President Donald Trump is locked in too-close-to-call races with any one of seven top Democratic challengers in the 2020 presidential race in Texas, where former Vice President Joseph Biden has 48 percent to President Trump with 44 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Other matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll show:

    President Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
    Trump at 47 percent to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 44 percent;
    Trump at 48 percent to former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke with 45 percent;
    Trump with 46 percent to South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg's 44 percent;
    Trump at 47 percent to California Sen. Kamala Harris at 43 percent;
    Trump with 46 percent and former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro at 43 percent.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625

...When one is basically tied in a state that has typically straddled 400 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee for about thirty years, one is in deep trouble as a Republican. 

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[pbrower2a]

Remember: I do not mix Morning Consult polling with other statewide polling.

Net approval

-10 or more severe
-5 to -9
-1 to -4
tie -- white
+1 to +4
+5 to +9
+10 or higher

Now how does President Trump win?

[pbrower2a]

Tennessee rarely gets polled.

TN-Vanderbilt/SSRS:
Approval 54%
Disapproval 44%

https://www.vanderbilt.edu/csdi/testing/spring_2019_toplines.pdf

Tennessee should be one of Trump's strongest states. This is tepid. He will almost certainly win it, but not by the 61-35 margin by which he trounced Hillary Clinton in 2016. I'd guess about 56-44, still a small double-digit margin.

This is consistent with the President losing about 5% support nationwide, and with otherwise-inexplicably bad approval ratings for the President in neighboring Georgia and North Carolina.  

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[pbrower2a]

Marist, May 31-June 4, 944 adults including 783 RV (prior poll April 24-29)

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 36 (-2)

RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-5)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-3)

2020:

Definitely vote for Trump 36 (+3)
Definitely vote against Trump 51 (-3)
Unsure 13 (+1)

Uh-oh, looks another Trump "surge!"

I'd suggest amending the originial post to clarify that the "Definitely vote for/etc" numbers are for registered voters.

In other words, while Trump is 43-49 in approval he's 36-51 on voting intention. Confirms what we've seen in other polls. I wonder if this is just a quirk or something for him to seriously worry about.

The "vote for/against" question is is closer to definitive than approval/disapproval or favorable/unfavorable numbers. The final vote is definitive by law, barring only overt fraud.

Obviously, "vote against" includes third-Party or independent, right-leaning alternatives to the President.

[pbrower2a]

It's New York State and a favorability poll. Notice that Trump loses to some deep also-rans in New York Stte.

58% Kirsten Gillibrand
34% Donald Trump

48% Bill de Blasio
36% Donald Trump

This Siena College Poll was conducted June 2-6, 2019 by telephone calls conducted in English to 812 New York State registered voters. Respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest male in the household. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting.

https://scri.siena.edu/2019/06/10/voters-on-end-of-session-agenda-yes-on-marijuana-55-40

Because it is favorability I will not put it on the map.

[pbrower2a]

New York Times; seventeen-state internal poll

June 10, 2019

WASHINGTON — Late at night, using his old personal cellphone number, President Trump has been calling former advisers who have not heard from him in years, eager to discuss his standing in the polls against the top Democrats in the field — specifically Joseph R. Biden Jr., whom he describes in those conversations as “too old” and “not as popular as people think.”

After being briefed on a devastating 17-state poll conducted by his campaign pollster, Tony Fabrizio, Mr. Trump told aides to deny that his internal polling showed him trailing Mr. Biden in many of the states he needs to win, even though he is also trailing in public polls from key states like Texas, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And when top-line details of the polling leaked, including numbers showing the president lagging in a cluster of critical Rust Belt states, Mr. Trump instructed aides to say publicly that other data showed him doing well.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/10/us/politics/trump-biden-iowa.html

Assume that the results will be suppressed to the extent and for as long a time as possible. I don't even know what states were polled.

I found the pollster's website, and I found no data on this internal poll. 

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, June 6-10, 1214 RV (3-week change)

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

A big bump for Trump.  But the head-to-head matchups tell a different story:


Biden 53, Trump 40
Sanders 51, Trump 42
Harris 49, Trump 41
Warren 49, Trump 42
Buttigieg 47, Trump 42
Booker 47, Trump 42

If he can't crack 42%, then he stands to lose in a landslide.

[pbrower2a]

Seventeen states and one Congressional district were decided by 10% or less in 2016 ...

You have 17 states colored-in on your map, but two (not one) Congressional Districts.
Is it one or two Congressional Districts?

Trump won NE-02 by 2.24% and ME-02 by 10.29%. 

I showed ME-02 in color because I was not then sure whether it was just over 10% or just under 10% in its margin for Trump. It is a swing district this time.

[pbrower2a]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, June 9-11, 1500 adults including

Adults:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+2)

2020: Generic D 39 (-1), Trump 36 (nc)

RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 30 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

2020: Generic D 46 (nc), Trump 41 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 46 (+1), R 40 (-1)

Could this be a tariff bump? Never thought I would say tariffs could help, but i think Mexico caving threw Trump a bone and benefited the economy

I don't see a bump. First, any change under 4% is within the margin of error -- but when numbers for "strong approval" and "strong disapproval" both rise by minuscule amounts, I see a tendency for people to become more firm in their attitudes.

Note that strong disapproval for both 'adults' and 'registered voters' is very close to total approval, which means that about as many people have no confidence in the current President than accept that he is doing most things well. Much of electioneering in the final stage is canvassing, and 'strong disapproval' means that someone canvassing for Trump is going to find some rude responses that can discourage all but the most fanatical supporter.   

[pbrower2a]

EPIC-MRA, Michigan:

(This) poll ... offers only a statistical snapshot of the electorate at a given point in time and, nine months before the Democratic primary and 17 months before the general election, there is no saying who will win the Democratic nomination or whether Trump can build more support and get reelected.

But it does indicate continued issues for the president in a state that helped him win the Electoral College vote three years ago. According to the poll:

    49% of those surveyed outright support Biden, who was President Barack Obama's vice president, with 3% leaning toward supporting him, compared with 37% who support Trump and 4% who lean toward supporting the president.  Only 7% were undecided.

    Biden had a 57%-35% edge in metro Detroit, the most populous area of the state, but also led the outer ring of Detroit's suburbs, 62%-35%, and in northern Michigan, 46%-42% according to the poll. Trump held slight leads of 3 percentage points in central and west Michigan and in and around Bay City.

    Biden led among all age groups but had an especially large lead — 65%-to-27% — among younger voters ages 18-34. Porn said that suggests that even if younger voters select someone other than the 76-year-old Biden in the Democratic primary, they would still consider supporting him in the general election.

    While white voters split between the two candidates with 47% each, African Americans supported Biden 95%-3%.

    While Democrats supported Biden 93%-2%, Trump can't count on the same level of support from Republicans, with 83% supporting him and 12% backing Biden. Meanwhile, among self-described independents, 48% supported Biden, 36% supported Trump and 16% were undecided. 

The Biden-Trump matchup was the only head-to-head contest polled in June by EPIC-MRA even though there are nearly two dozen Democrats running for the nomination to face Trump in 2020.

It is an excellent-good-fair-poor poll, so I do not show it on the map.   

But note well:

1. Donald Trump will not win re-election if he gets only 83% of the Republican vote
2. He will not win Michigan (or many other states) if he breaks even with the white vote
3. He cannot win Michigan without winning northern Michigan (the Upper Peninsula and the northern Lower Peninsula
4. He is doing badly in the outer suburbs of Detroit, where he did well enough to win the state
5. He is nearly breaking even in 'western Michigan', which is almost identical to Indiana in its voting patterns.

Michigan is not a microcosm of America, politically or otherwise.

[pbrower2a]

My guess about the internal poll:

Seventeen states and one Congressional district were decided by 10% or less in 2016. The states in color are the most likely candidates:

2016 result among states decided by 10% or less:

8% or more -- saturation 7
4% to 7.99% -- saturation 5
1.5% to 3.99% -- saturation 3
under 1.5% -- saturation 2

Data from President Donald Trump's first internal reelection campaign poll conducted in March, obtained exclusively by ABC News, showed him losing a matchup by wide margins to former Vice President Joe Biden in key battleground states.


Trump has repeatedly denied that such data exists.

The polling data, revealed for the first time by ABC News, showed a double-digit lead for Biden in Pennsylvania 55-39 and Wisconsin 51-41 and had Biden leading by seven points in Florida. In Texas, a Republican stronghold, the numbers showed the president only leading by two points.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/president-trumps-internal-polling-data-march-showed-joe/story?id=63718268


It's from March, so it is not current from any state. This suggests anything from a 7% to 9% swing in at least four of the states in question. Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would be enough to swing electoral results from a Trump win in 2016 to a Trump loss in 2020.

Trump's people would surely have lauded any results that show him getting closer results or even staying similarly close in any state that he lost, including Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, or Virginia. A 7-9% shift would be more than enough to swing Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina. Iowa and Ohio would at least be 'iffy', and I would expect Iowa to go against Trump (not that its six electoral votes would decide anything) because its demographics are so much like those of Wisconsin. 

New Mexico would not take much to be a blowout loss for the President in 2020. And then there is Michigan. NE-02 was not likely polled, but demographic trends alone should make it close in themselves. OK, I will not show it. Neither will I show ME-02.

There are just no surprises here. Trump's internal polling  is close to polling that I have seen elsewhere.

8% or more -- saturation 7
4% to 7.99% -- saturation 5
2% to 3.99% -- saturation 2
under 2% -- white

This data, including the estimates that I draw from it, is obsolete. I see something close to an electoral win by Joseph Biden to that of Obama in 2008 in the event that President Trump holds onto Ohio, or something analogous to either win by Bill Clinton in the 1990s if the President loses Ohio.

It would be pointless to put this data onto a general map. Even the legend does not fit, as in this one I am using 8% (twice the margin of error) as the borderline between meaningful contest and not-so-meaningful contest instead of the more conventional 10%. Besides -- it is from March, so it is about three months old.

The President's internal pollster seems to be getting results similar to those of just about everyone else. 

[pbrower2a]

Zogby, several states.



AZ 47-53
FL 48-50
MI 40-61 (rounding error... I call it 40-60)
OH 46-53
PA 44-55
SC 57-42
WI 45-53

Well, Trump will not lose the entire Atlantic coast...

OK, it is Zogby, a much-derided pollster, but the results look conventional enough. Ohio is something of a surprise until you see how execrable the results are for the President in Michigan, which looks much like the Glengariff and EPIC-MRA polls.   Except for the areas south and east of the I-71 and I-76 corridor, Ohio is politically much like Michigan; it endures the same distress in industrial areas and among farmers. Ohio is a big soybean-producing state, and the trade war hurts soybean farmers. Ohio differs from Michigan in that to the east and south of the suburbs of Cincinnati, Columbus, Canton, and Youngstown is Appalachian.

Dislike Zogby? There will be more polls.

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[pbrower2a]

So how did Trump win in 2016?



Let's discuss the states that swung from Obama to Trump and those that nearly did so. 

Democrats did not vote in the numbers in which they voted in 2012. About 170K fewer people voted for Clinton than for Obama in Iowa, nearly 500K in Ohio, 300K in Wisconsin,  200K in Minnesota, nearly 200K in Michigan, 50K in Maine, and 5K in Pennsylvania.  Clinton actually got more votes than Obama in Florida, but Trump gained even more in Florida. 

Trump won Florida and Pennsylvania by gaining more votes. He did not get many more votes in Wisconsin (2K), far fewer than enough to win by added R voters. Trump got 65K more voters in Michigan.

If Democrats get out the vote in 2020, they win.

[pbrower2a]

NBC has released the results for all but five of the states polled on Meet the Press today.  The states not identified are Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.

The internal polling paints a picture of an incumbent president with serious ground to gain across the country as his re-election campaign kicks into higher gear.

While the campaign tested other Democratic presidential candidates against Trump, Biden polled the best of the group, according the source.

In Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan — three states where Trump edged Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by narrow margins that proved decisive in his victory — Trump trails Biden by double-digits. In three of those states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida — Biden’s leads sit outside the poll’s margin of error.

Trump is also behind the former vice president in Iowa by 7 points, in North Carolina by 8 points, in Virginia by 17 points, in Ohio by 1 point, in Georgia by 6 points, in Minnesota by 14 points, and in Maine by 15 points.

In Texas, where a Democratic presidential nominee hasn’t won since President Jimmy Carter in 1976, Trump leads by just 2 points.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/trump-campaign-cutting-ties-pollsters-after-internal-numbers-leaked-n1017991

I am not incorporating these polls because they are from March. I have every reason to believe that they were conducted properly, their results showing what other pollsters have found.

[pbrower2a]

NBC has released the results for all but five of the states polled on Meet the Press today.  The states not identified are Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.

The internal polling paints a picture of an incumbent president with serious ground to gain across the country as his re-election campaign kicks into higher gear.

While the campaign tested other Democratic presidential candidates against Trump, Biden polled the best of the group, according the source.

In Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan — three states where Trump edged Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by narrow margins that proved decisive in his victory — Trump trails Biden by double-digits. In three of those states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida — Biden’s leads sit outside the poll’s margin of error.

Trump is also behind the former vice president in Iowa by 7 points, in North Carolina by 8 points, in Virginia by 17 points, in Ohio by 1 point, in Georgia by 6 points, in Minnesota by 14 points, and in Maine by 15 points.

In Texas, where a Democratic presidential nominee hasn’t won since President Jimmy Carter in 1976, Trump leads by just 2 points.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/trump-campaign-cutting-ties-pollsters-after-internal-numbers-leaked-n1017991

I am not incorporating these polls because they are from March. I have every reason to believe that they were conducted properly, their results showing what other pollsters have found.

A good morning line though?

It is evidence that the 'fake news' about polling of the President's approval numbers is not so fake.

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky rarely gets polled.

Kentucky: Gravis, June 11-12, 741 LV

Approve 60 (strongly 48)
Disapprove 37 (strongly 27)

Trump 57, Biden 37
Trump 57, Sanders 35
Trump 60, Buttigieg 28
Trump 60, Warren 28

Kentucky should be one of Trump's strongest states. This is tepid. He will almost certainly win it, but not by the 63-33 margin by which he trounced Hillary Clinton in 2016.

This is consistent with the President losing about 5% support nationwide from 2016, and with otherwise-inexplicably bad approval ratings for the President in  Georgia and North Carolina.  

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[pbrower2a]

How much will his numbers drop because of the Iran stuff?

Not much. It will take filled body bags to bring down support for Trump. The personality cult is strong. It is hard to imagine his disapproval numbers going much lower. 

[pbrower2a]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, June 11-13 (change from March)

Pennsylvania (587 LV):

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 49 (nc)

Michigan (565 LV):

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Wisconsin (535 LV):

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 51 (-3)

Who are these guys?

[pbrower2a]

Florida, Quinnipiac:

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2629

Trump approval, 44-51. Biden is up by 9 over Trump, and all other named Democrats are ahead of the President.

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[pbrower2a]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, June 11-13 (change from March)

Pennsylvania (587 LV):

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 49 (nc)

Michigan (565 LV):

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Wisconsin (535 LV):

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 51 (-3)

Who are these guys?

Some former Republican operatives.

Yeah, for Rubio.

Therefore suspect. They might be kissing up to Donald Trump.

OK, Zogby and ARG have been held in low regard, but at least they are non-partisan. There is always the possibility that they might start getting valid results.  They are not suspected of cooking the books.   

Firehouse Strategies is thus on  double-secret probation.

[pbrower2a]

PPP tends to have an R bias. Not much -- possibly over-caution by the Democrat who runs it, according to his story.

It could also be that the international scene is getting dicier, and such gives an initial gain in polling to the incumbent.