Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[pbrower2a]

PSB Research, March 12-21, 1000 adults.  538 gives this pollster a B- rating, but I don't see a recent prior from them to compare.

Approve 42
Disapprove 58

Strongly approve 20
Strongly disapprove 42

If President Donald Trump runs for President again in the 2020 election, do you plan to vote for him?

Yes 29
No 56
Not sure 15

Much about it is cannabis.

The "Trump or not" question is even more devastating than approval. Even the "no" offers him a ceiling of 44% of the popular vote. Split the "not sure" 8-7 for Trump, and one has no precedent since the Civil War. Taft lost in 1912 when his Party split on the Presidency, which will not happen this time. Such a performance would be worse than for Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. 

OK, Trump is without precedent. If he should lose, then the theme will be a combination of corruption and incompetence. 

[pbrower2a]

If I'm going through these threads in a year, it will be awfully confusing that there is a gap between 1.4 and 1.6. Also, your holdup is that there used to be a 1.5 thread that got merged? That makes no sense. The 1.5 thread no longer exists and the only mention of it is buried deep in the middle of the 1.4 thread. Make this 1.5.

It is 1.5 now.

[pbrower2a]

ARG monthly economic survey, April 17-20, 1100 adults

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

R: 88/11
D: 9/87
I: 36/60

Partly before, and partly after the release of the Mueller report.

What horrid numbers among independent voters! The 11% disapproval rate among Republicans doesn't seem so bad until one figures that disapproval within one's own Party rarely breaks into double digits. I would assume that some Republicans still believe in the Rule of Law more than in the personality of a President.

I would not make much of a 2% change in approval or disapproval ratings for an incumbent President.   

[pbrower2a]

LOL, 538 adjusted that puppy *down* to 37%.

MC has usually been kind of favorable for Trump, so it's not surprising.  This could be an outlier, of course.

Ipsos / Reuters, 1005 adults, Apr 18-19:
https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-TRUMP-RUSSIA-POLL/010091JB28J/Mueller%20Investigation%20Report%2004%2019%202019%20TRENDED%20PID.pdf

Approve: 37 (-6)
Disapprove: 56 (+2)

Oof.

Terrible poll for Trump.  Impeachment went from 39/49 in March to 40/42 now.  Whether he should resign went from 46/46 to 47/37.  Even 22% of Republicans said Trump should resign!

Two outliers can happen, but it is unlikely that one has two. Polls often come in on Tuesday, and those involving a full weekend after the Mueller Report will start coming in. Approval and disapproval numbers for this President have been remarkably stable. 6% drops in approval for a President in one week are rare. Both are outside the usual 4% margin of error.

[pbrower2a]

It's an interral poll for Bernie Sanders, so take it with a grain of salt. Actually three statewide polls. I was polled in Michigan (the other two states were Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). It was not a push poll, as questions were asked with no obvious bias. Most obviously, on approval and disapproval of Donald Trump as President:

Michigan 41-58
Pennsylvania 41-57
Wisconsin 42-55

That is approval to disapproval, and if the polling that I got was indicative, it was before the release of the redacted Mueller Report.

So how does Sanders do against Trump? Apparently not as well as the margin suggests, but (if this polling is right) well enough to win these three states solidly:

Michigan 52-41
Pennsylvania 51-43
Wisconsin 52-42

with Trump getting a vote share close to his approval number, but Sanders falling short of Trump's disapproval number.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5974060-Tulchin-Research-Memo-Sanders-Defeating-Trump-in.html

Because it is an internal poll I am not putting it on the map. For practically any other Democrat, I see Trump losses in all three states . Trump can afford to lose two of these unless he loses Florida (in which case he must win Michigan and Pennsylvania) or one if he should lose Arizona, Georgia (which seems to be in play), or North Carolina. Ohio? Trump is not losing either Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.  Iowa doesn't figure because (1) it is demographically close to Wisconsin and will probably go with Wisconsin anyway, and (2) there seems to be no other state with fewer than ten electoral votes that Trump lost that seems in play this time.

I'm changing my mind on this. The two nationwide polls that have come out after the Mueller Report suggest a huge drop in Trump approval, and these may be among the last polls to show three critical states before such. The general rule is that (unless you see a problem with the methodology) if you do not like a poll, then wait for a new one. Besides, we are running low on the number of posts available before we start using "Trump approval ratings thread, 1.5" I have yet to see any statewide polls following the disclosure of the redacted Mueller Report.

In any event, some horrid polls for Trump appear in some other states that seemed even more sympathetic to him, and these three polls fit. "To Trump or not to Trump" does not change. Trump is not winning with these numbers.

Approval and disapproval ratings of Donald Trump:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 50
40-43% 77
under 40%  144

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

27 more states, and 193 electoral votes to go!    

To Trump or not to Trump, as I put it:

8% or higher margin against Trump -- maroon
4-7.9% against Trump -- medium red
under 4% margin against Trump -- pink

I have yet to see exact ties or 'better' for Trump.      
  




  

[pbrower2a]

We will see a good one soon enough.  It's the movement that marks the Ipsos and Morning Consult polls -- and it is huge movement.

If there should be a statewide poll, then we might see a contrast for a state. 

[pbrower2a]

It's Zogby, and it is Trump vs. someone else among likely voters. Wisconsin, the tipping-point state of 2016 and close to such in 2020:



Trump loses to everyone, at least if one ignores any margin of error.

[pbrower2a]

Unless there is a split in the Left side of the political spectrum, Trump does not win with less than 45% in practically any state.

[pbrower2a]

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&trendline=true&map=true

This one looks pretty good overall although probably has the same underestimate WWC support for Trump and overestimate Hispanic support for Trump outside FL.

Caveats:

1. It is over three months. Most statewide polls are over much-shorter times, so I can't relate these results to statewide polls over a weekend -- which is most of what I have, or even the month-long polling of Morning Consult.

2. Two national polls already show Trump support undergoing significant drops following the release of the  Mueller report. See below. Although there were apparently no statewide polls taken in the weekend following the release of the redacted report, there will be such reports. Even the three polling results that I have for the three narrowest Trump wins of 2016 (and these come from an internal poll for the Bernie Sanders campaign), the last three that I have gotten, are from before the Mueller Report exposing the ethical cesspool of the Trump campaign of 2016.

3. We can expect some systematic faults of sampling by any pollster on populations  that will distort results. The question about such remains: who has the faults, and which ones are significant?

We can go with the argument "but this pollster got this election right to an extent that someone else did not get so right". Such implies a difference in modeling of any election. Trump obviously wins re-election with an electorate like those of 2010 or 2014, and obviously loses with an electorate of 2006, 2008, 2012, or 2018. 2016? Which way is the wind blowing? Who can say what sort of electorate we will have?  

Concurrences:

1. This is the same pollster in all fifty states. It is apples to apples, oranges to oranges.

2. Trump polling has been remarkably stable, at least until the release of the Mueller Report.

3. We get to see results from states that don't get polled often.

4. This could be a contrast to what we see in the last week of April and from early May. I am not predicting polling results as the result of events, even if the Mueller Report is a huge event.

From this collection of data exclusively (except that I am guessing that Trump has no chance to win Dee Cee):

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

Note that I am changing my format here. I cannot see the President winning any state in which his disapproval is over 51%. If Obama could not win in 2012 in any state in which is disapproval rating ever got above 51%, then how could Trump barring some huge positive event? Obama is as slick and competent a campaigner and political strategist as we have seen in decades, and to get re-elected he had to be that slick and competent. At this I in practice give Trump much leeway. I must -- you know my bias. I thoroughly loathe him, and I thought Obama a fine President.

But this said, any state in maroon is practically certain to give Trump a double-digit loss, and any state in red has a high likelihood of giving him at the least a high-single-digit loss. States in pink or the one in white will be the ones to watch. Nothing is in light blue, so there is no state in which he is up 49-47 or so, but it is worth noting that Trump approval is at 50% in Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas... and at a mere 51% in Indiana.

So what about Indiana? Since the 1920s, no Republican nominee for President has won nationwide without winning Indiana by a double-digit margin. Even in the two elections in which the Republican won the electoral college without winning a plurality of the vote, the winning Republican (Dubya in 2000 and Trump in 2016) the Republican won the state by a double-digit margin. The disapproval number is just too high and the approval number is just too low  to offer the state as a ten-point win for Trump in 2020.  Indiana does not seem to be drifting Democratic, and it is not as if Indiana will be making voting easier to the benefit of Hoosier Democrats (mail-in or early voting). If you are a Democrat and hear at 7 PM that Trump has a 53-46 win in Indiana, you can consider that a very good sign.
 
How good do I think Obama was? Basically, the next effective conservative President will behave much more like Obama than like Trump and will also be a chilly rationalist with similar acumen. Someone with the political skills of Reagan and the temperament of Eisenhower is a good President. Conservatives who want tax cuts, regulatory relief that outlasts the president, and an economic order that puts more responsibility on the common man to create wealth instead of blowing it will be better off with a conservative version of Barack Obama than with another Donald Trump Add to this -- contrast Obama to Trump on foreign policy, and Obama is the conservative with a mailed fist under the velvet glove, which is the right way for dealing with ISIS, North Korea, and perhaps Iran.  



I may prefer this polling data for my start in 1.5. We are running out of available posts in 1.4.

(I corrected some coloring).

[pbrower2a]

ABC/WaPo, April 22-25, 1001 adults (previous poll in late Jan.)


Approve 39 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-4)

Thats frustrating. But these numbers seems to give merit to the theory that Mueller and Russia are already built into Trump's numbers.

Well, the prior poll was in the middle of the shutdown, which was a period when Trump's numbers were generally awful.  The two before that were 40/53 (Nov.) and 41/54 (Oct.)

Thank you for the reminder.


39% approval and 45% strong disapproval are still horrid numbers. WaPo has nothing from February, March, or early-to-middle April. Trump polling was awful during the shutdown.

The Mueller Report isn't going away, and I cannot think of anything under reaction that could clear the President. I can only imagine that what lies behind redactions for "Ongoing investigation" and "Grand jury" will not be good news for Trump. The FBI does not have the resources for wild-goose chases. 

[pbrower2a]

Here is 'my' starting point for the 2020 Presidential election based upon polling from January to the middle of April with a map of statewide approvals before the release of the Mueller report in its first, redacted version. I do not expect the next redacted version to bring any improvement to the prospects for re-election of the President.

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&trendline=true&map=true

This one looks pretty good overall although probably has the same underestimate WWC support for Trump and overestimate Hispanic support for Trump outside FL.

Caveats:

1. It is over three months. Most statewide polls are over much-shorter times, so I can't relate these results to statewide polls over a weekend -- which is most of what I have, or even the month-long polling of Morning Consult.

2. Two national polls already show Trump support undergoing significant drops following the release of the  Mueller report. See below. Although there were apparently no statewide polls taken in the weekend following the release of the redacted report, there will be such reports. Even the three polling results that I have for the three narrowest Trump wins of 2016 (and these come from an internal poll for the Bernie Sanders campaign), the last three that I have gotten, are from before the Mueller Report exposing the ethical cesspool of the Trump campaign of 2016.

3. We can expect some systematic faults of sampling by any pollster on populations  that will distort results. The question about such remains: who has the faults, and which ones are significant?

We can go with the argument "but this pollster got this election right to an extent that someone else did not get so right". Such implies a difference in modeling of any election. Trump obviously wins re-election with an electorate like those of 2010 or 2014, and obviously loses with an electorate of 2006, 2008, 2012, or 2018. 2016? Which way is the wind blowing? Who can say what sort of electorate we will have? 

Concurrences:

1. This is the same pollster in all fifty states. It is apples to apples, oranges to oranges.

2. Trump polling has been remarkably stable, at least until the release of the Mueller Report.

3. We get to see results from states that don't get polled often.

4. This could be a contrast to what we see in the last week of April and from early May. I am not predicting polling results as the result of events, even if the Mueller Report is a huge event.

From this collection of data exclusively (except that I am guessing that Trump has no chance to win Dee Cee):

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

Note that I am changing my format here. I cannot see the President winning any state in which his disapproval is over 51%. If Obama could not win in 2012 in any state in which is disapproval rating ever got above 51%, then how could Trump barring some huge positive event? Obama is as slick and competent a campaigner and political strategist as we have seen in decades, and to get re-elected he had to be that slick and competent. At this I in practice give Trump much leeway. I must -- you know my bias. I thoroughly loathe him, and I thought Obama a fine President.

But this said, any state in maroon is practically certain to give Trump a double-digit loss, and any state in red has a high likelihood of giving him at the least a high-double-digit loss. States in pink or the one in white will be the ones to watch. Nothing is in light blue, so there is no state in which he is up 49-47 or so, but it is worth noting that Trump approval is at 50% in Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas... and at a mere 51% in Indiana.

So what about Indiana? Since the 1920s, no Republican nominee for President has won nationwide without winning Indiana by a double-digit margin. Even in the two elections in which the Republican won the electoral college without winning a plurality of the vote, the winning Republican (Dubya in 2000 and Trump in 2016) the Republican won the state by a double-digit margin. The disapproval number is just too high and the approval number is just too low  to offer the state as a ten-point win for Trump in 2020.  Indiana does not seem to be drifting Democratic, and it is not as if Indiana will be making voting easier to the benefit of Hoosier Democrats (mail-in or early voting). If you are a Democrat and hear at 7 PM that Trump has a 53-46 win in Indiana, you can consider that a very good sign.

[pbrower2a]

To Trump or not to Trump, as I put it:

8% or higher margin against Trump -- maroon
4-7.9% against Trump -- medium red
under 4% margin against Trump -- pink

I have yet to see exact ties or 'better' for Trump.   

[pbrower2a]

First update of statewide polling, with the first poll of a state after the release of the Mueller Report.

PPP, Wisconsin, and the focus is on healthcare. No mention is made of anything in the Mueller Report. It is a poll for an advocacy group, but these are the first two questions:

Performance: approve of Trump 44%, disapprove 54%
Trump 43%, Democrat 53%

then, trust on medical coverage  Trump 42%, Democrats 52%


https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/WisconsinFinal.pdf

Trump is not winning Wisconsin with these numbers!

The Trump or not shade does not change.

Ohio -- Northern Ohio University.

This could be an outlier -- but note that it comes from before the release of the Mueller Report, April 5-10.

The words used to describe approval and disapproval are "satisfied" and "dissatisfied", which is a passive way of expressing approval and disapproval. 

Satisfied 35%, neutral 15%, dissatisfied 50%.

Trump wins if he gets all of the "neutral", but getting the whole of 15%  is practically impossible.

...60% of the potential electorate is excited or very excited about voting in the 2020 Presidential election.  30% are neutral, and only 8% are unexcited or strongly unexcited.

OK, the level of excitement should help the President if they want to vote for him.

But -- "A Democrat" gets only 41% of the likely vote, but Trump struggles at this point to get 34% of the Ohio electorate  voting for him.

This suggests that Ohio will be close, and if I were predicting Ohio in 2020, I would see it as close with the Democrat getting a slight edge.

Ohio is in the unstable zone between 295 and 375 electoral votes for the Democrat. Results in electoral votes do not cluster around the mean win for successful Presidential nominees around 62% of the electoral vote (which is about what Obama did in 2016).

I can't really express this on either map. There are just too many people on the bubble -- and this poll is 20-some days old.

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[pbrower2a]

Well, whadd'ya think? I have already posted the first statewide poll  after the release of the Mueller Report on "1.5". It is PPP, Wisconsin, and basically, Trump faces numbers that suggests that Wiscinsin is for him at best on the fringe of contention.

I suggest that you start making the transition to '1.5'. Move your favorite posts soon, because when this thread closes such will be difficult.   

I now welcome comments in 1.5.  The timing is mere coincidence. "1.4" will be closed in perhaps a week.

[pbrower2a]

Except for Nixon (2%), Ford (1%), and  Reagan (3%), none of them surpassed his approval rating in the subsequent election. Each of these did so by a small amount.

I predict that Trump will surpass his current approval rating as a percentage of the popular vote, but not by much -- and far less than enough with which to get re-elected.

It is not that I disagree with President Trump; he has simply done so much so wrong that it would all be inexcusable if I agreed with him.

[pbrower2a]

Ford, second-from the lowest, was closer to Reagan and Obama in approval at analogous times, than to Trump. Reagan was a near-great President if one is a conservative and Obama is a near-great President if one is a liberal. Ford lacked the political savvy of Obama and Reagan, which reflects that most Presidents have been either Senators or State governors before becoming President. Obama and Reagan had similar political skills but used them for different objectives.

Obviously, Gerald Ford was a far more decent person than Donald Trump, which matters greatly. It is impossible to be a good President if one is a heel as is Trump. Hey, admit it, everyone, no matter what your ideology -- Donald Trump is a heel. His behavior would be abominable if he expressed boilerplate liberalism at every turn.

The ancient Greek poet Heraclitus formulated, and the late Senator John McCain much more recently seconded, the simplest quip about human nature: character is destiny.  Good families and good schools ideally foster character which implies the ability to choose kindness over revenge, integrity over convenience, service over indulgence, and caution over impulse. None of this is easy, but such is essential in an effective leader in any endeavor. 

[pbrower2a]

Texas, Emerson:

President Trump has a 46% approval/44% disapproval in Texas. However, he remains popular within his party, leading Republican opponent former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld 87% to 13%. (n=344, +/-5.3%). This is consistent with other Emerson polls conducted in different states over the past several months.

 

Head to Heads:

In general election matchups, Trump is in statistical dead heats with four of the top six Democratic opponents, and leads the other two. In a Donald Trump versus Joe Biden matchup, the two are almost exactly even at 50% for Biden and 49% for Trump. Beto O’Rourke versus Trump is very similar, with 50% going to Beto and 50% supporting Trump. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are the other Democrats within the margin, with Trump receiving 51% to Sanders’ 49% and Trump leading Warren 53% to 47%. The rest fall outside of the margin, with Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg each receiving 46% support to Trump’s 54%.

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/04/28/2020-texas-biden-and-beto-in-dead-heat-in-democratic-primary/

As if I have not said this numerous times, Texas has typically straddled 400 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee. Unless Ohio has become more R than Texas (in which case Texas is close to being 400 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee, such remains so as it has been since the 1990s.

President Trump has not solidified adequate support in Texas to ensure himself of winning the state in 2020 in the general election.

President Trump has a 46% approval/44% disapproval in Texas. However, he remains popular within his party, leading Republican opponent former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld 87% to 13%. (n=344, +/-5.3%). This is consistent with other Emerson polls conducted in different states over the past several months.

Head to Heads:

In general election matchups, Trump is in statistical dead heats with four of the top six Democratic opponents, and leads the other two. In a Donald Trump versus Joe Biden matchup, the two are almost exactly even at 50% for Biden and 49% for Trump. Beto O’Rourke versus Trump is very similar, with 50% going to Beto and 50% supporting Trump. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are the other Democrats within the margin, with Trump receiving 51% to Sanders’ 49% and Trump leading Warren 53% to 47%. The rest fall outside of the margin, with Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg each receiving 46% support to Trump’s 54%.

 

Sure, it is Emerson, but if Trump has mixed results against the various potential Democratic nominees in a state that he absolutely must win to have any chance and that indicates a landslide win for a Democratic nominee, then he is in a bad position. 

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire: Suffolk, April 25-28, 800 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 53

It is favorability and non-favorability. There is also a question of how the Democrat (whoever wins) will fare against Trump, and a 43-40 split  is worthless. (More attention was given to Elizabeth Warren, and that may have given many the heebie-jeebies about such a split. She is an unusually weak candidate for President, as shown in the polling. As you will notice I am already putting polling results on "1.5". Eighteen more posts, max, on this thread. Such is the choice of the people at the Atlas.

[pbrower2a]

Technically this is favorability, and not approval so I cannot really put it on the polling map.

https://www2.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2019/04/29/read-full-results-suffolk-university-boston-globe-poll/WAyevf7yhzt1wUWcZKywQL/story.html

Favorability of Donald Trump, 41-53

Trump vs. the unidentified Democratic nominee -- 40-43, with a huge number of undecided... not usable.

No change in the maps.

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire: Suffolk, April 25-28, 800 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 53

It is favorability and non-favorability. There is also a question of how the Democrat (whoever wins) will fare against Trump, and a 43-40 split  is worthless. (More attention was given to Elizabeth Warren, and that may have given many the heebie-jeebies about such a split. She is an unusually weak candidate for President, as shown in the polling. As you will notice I am already putting polling results on "1.5". Eighteen more posts, max, on this thread. Such is the choice of the people at the Atlas.

Look closer.  As I mentioned in the other polling thread, this poll has both approval and favorability (and both round to 41/53).  Question 7 is approval.  Question 8 is favorability.

Thank  you.

[pbrower2a]

Technically this is favorability, and not approval so I cannot really put it on the polling map.

https://www2.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2019/04/29/read-full-results-suffolk-university-boston-globe-poll/WAyevf7yhzt1wUWcZKywQL/story.html

Favorability of Donald Trump, 41-53

Trump vs. the unidentified Democratic nominee -- 40-43, with a huge number of undecided... not usable.

No change in the maps.

It has both.  Question 7 is Trump approval, question 8 is Trump favorability.  Both round to 41/53, although they were slightly different at more decimal places (approval 40.63/53.38, favorability 41.13/53.50).

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[pbrower2a]

A reminder:

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac: nationwide.

This is the first nationwide poll that the Q has taken following the release of the Mueller Report. Because there is no overt question of approval or disapproval of the President, I expect such data to be released tomorrow (May 1).

However, the question is posed: will you or will you not vote for Donald Trump in 2020?

  

TREND: In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Trump is the Republican candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you definitely not vote for him?

                     Def     Consdr  DefNot
                     Vote    Voting  Vote     DK/NA
 
Apr 30, 2019         33      13      52        2
Mar 28, 2019         30      13      53        3

There is no significant change. Q does not show any reduction of Trump support following the report from last month. Still: definitely not vote (for Trump) means that the President will not get a majority of the vote. "Definitely vote" and "consider" add to 46%, which is close to what he got in 2016, and is up 3% from last month.

Trump wins if he gets 46% vote and Democrats simply run up the vote in a few states, especially California and New York while Trump gets bare pluralities in almost all genuine swing states as he did in 2016. At 45% he loses, so he needs to win all the "consider" votes in 2016.  

Other data:

Among Democrats and Democratic-leaners, Presidential support  for those running are 38% for Biden, 12% for Warren, 11% for Sanders, 10% for Buttegieg, 8% for Harris, and 5% at most for anyone else. Biden has an edge among Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters 50 or older. We may be seeing a rapid narrowing of the Democratic field with some quick fades or people who never had a chance to begin with. Because this thread does not have the primaries as a focus, I can say little more here.

70% of Americans say that they could vote for an openly-gay male as President, but only 36% think America could do so.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2617

[pbrower2a]

From the moribund "1.4" thread:

Marist, April 24-29, 1017 adults including 840 RV (prior poll March 25-27)

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-2)

RV:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+4)

Strongly approve 27 (not in March data)
Strongly disapprove 41

Vote for Trump in 2020?

Definitely yes 33 (-2)
Definitely no 54 (nc)

CNN/SSRS, April 25-28, 1007 adults (prior poll March 14-17)

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 35 (not asked in March)
Strongly disapprove 42

Impeach Trump?

Yes 37 (+1)
No 59 (nc)

Again, "strongly disapprove" is close to total approval. I am surprised that the Mueller report has changed few minds on whether Donald Trump is an acceptable President. As with many news stories that look bad to a majority of Americans, such seems to strengthen contempt and cause supporters to defend the president with greater vehemence. Good news for him might give him more approval, but at this point those who disapprove may be thinking that anything good happens despite him. (I expect this with his infrastructure proposal).

It is obviously premature to try to impeach President Trump. Investigate? Such has started. The negative ads will practically write themselves.


"Adults" and "registered voters" get much the same numbers. I am guessing that practically everyone now a registered voter as of the 2018 election will vote in 2020.

The "definitely yes" is below the percentage of the vote that Hoover got in 1932 or that Carter got in 1980. I expect Trump to win most of those who cannot say definitely "yes" or "no" -- but he must win practically all of them to get the plurality of votes in enough states in which to win re-election.   Trump won the Electoral college with 46% of the popular vote. 45% loses for him unless the Left side of the political spectrum splits significantly.  

The Economist/YouGov (weekly), April 27-30, 1500 adults including

Adults:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (nc)

2020: Generic D 42 (+1), Trump 34 (-1)

RV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

2020: Generic D 49 (+2), Trump 38 (-1)

One thing is consistent about Trump: polling results. Does anything in the above three polls suggest that President Trump will be re-elected?

[pbrower2a]

CNN/SSRS, April 25-28, 1007 adults (prior poll March 14-17)

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 35 (not asked in March)
Strongly disapprove 42

Impeach Trump?

Yes 37 (+1)
No 59 (nc)

RV:

44/53%   (strongly 37/43%) MOE 3.9%

RV Very Enthu Pres (I guess very enthusiastic about voting for president):

46/52% (strongly 42/47%) MOE 4.5%


Seems like Trump's MAGA-base are more enthusiastic, but still is too smal. Interesting how/if the Democratic, perhaps, dirty primary will influence that.

The MAGA types will be excited to canvass, but they are going to find lots of people hostile to the President -- and the MAGA types will not have a clue. The people hostile to Trump will remain hostile to them in part because such people are more educated and more firm in their confidence of their facts, and less likely to change their minds after hearing a superficial argument that Trump is the most wonderful thing to have ever happened in American politics.

The MAGA base, as is so with extremists, is much more enthusiastic about its cause than people behind a more moderate opponent. But -- and this is a big but -- there will be little room between enthusiastic support and rejection. I thought that supporters of Goldwater and McGovern, whom the other Side cast as dangerous radicals, were much more excited than the usual supporters of a pol closer to the center -- let us say Nixon or Clinton. But one vote from someone who supports a pol strongly and a vote from someone who just can't vote for the one with the seemingly-radical ideas and votes hesitantly counts just as much.   

I see Biden getting close to 40% of the support within the Democratic Party at this stage, and this early such looks like the prospect of a swift end to the 'quarterback controversy' for the nomination for President among Democrats.

It's your choice to decide how much of this is opinion, how much is experience, and how much is my beliefs. The best chance for Trump getting re-elected has been a splintered Democratic electorate, and even hat seems to be fading.