Not sure about Florida
OH and NC could change over in the next year-and-a-half
But this is where I'd put this ticket at today
It's two solid candidates
But Warren might not be as much of a vote getter this cycle as some other potential running mates. I could be wrong.
You must have seen the voting by states for House seats, and that corresponds with your map. Polling for Trump in Georgia has been consistently awful. I see Colorado, Maine at-large, New Hampshire and New Mexico even more 'gone' for Trump based on polling; there have been comparatively few polls of Georgia, but none of them reflect well on Trump. I see a reasonable range of 296 to 377 electoral votes for the Democratic nominee barring a complete electoral collapse of Trump.