Clearly the suburbs are trending Democratic, but KS-1 and KS-4 are still extremely Republican, and I don't see KS being a battleground state until the late 2020s at the very earliest. I think 2020 will be telling as to whether it's becoming a purple state in the long term, or whether 2018 was a bit of a fluke.
Republican presidential nominee share of the vote in KS since 2000:
2016: 56.2
2012: 59.7
2008: 56.6
2004: 62.0
2000: 58.0
I see no trend -- do you? -- except for 2004 to 2008 all shifts have been at or near the margin of error, and even the difference between 2004 and 2008 suggests that Obama was winning a landslide outside of the Deep and Mountain South following a close win for the incumbent Republican in 2004.
But -- Kansas will remain profoundly conservative, with the only meaningful change possible in either
(1) rural distress giving an opening to a Democrat, as in 1932 and 1936
(2) the Kansas GOP splintering, with (most likely) the more moderate wing of the GOP merging with the Democrats in Kansas,
(3) an unusual shift in Kansas' demographics, such as a large increase in the Hispanic population
(4) or a blow-out win of a Democratic nominee for President.
