Indictment-O-Rama, Act 3: Cohen Up the River

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Know well: in a criminal investigation, the legal process is definitive. Jury trials and plea bargains constitute the formal reality.

Mike Flynn could face consequences: probation, a fine, his passport, and a loss of military rank. But if he is the most credible person under investigation, then I can only imagine what he has dealt to Robert Mueller. Every month of freedom that he has gotten comes at the cost of perhaps a year of freedom (or perhaps the ability to stay in America) to someone else.

That memo has has enough black stripes to make a tiger envious.  What names and deeds are concealed? Watch for plea bargains, court trials, and resignations in disgrace.

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John Dean on Cohen filing: Congress will have to 'start impeachment proceedings'

I don't think it's wise for Dems to do that. Alas, they will do it and fail. At the end of the day, if they try, it'll be Clinton all over again. Newspaper headlines will flash: "TRUMP ACQUITTED".

While I dont think impeachment would succeed right now, there is a difference between Clinton and Trump. Most Americans support Mueller and his investigation.

Ken Starr on the other hand, was always extremely unpopular

Comparing what’s happening now to what happened during Bill Clinton makes no sense. This is uncharted territory.

Again, all you guys have are polls. Polls. The same polls that had me sad on election night that Rich Cordray was gonna be my Governor, Andrew Gillum was going to be Governor of Florida, Rick Scott was gonna lose, Kim Reynolds was doomed, Donnelly might pull through, Hawley wasn't gonna win Missouri and Hillary Clinton was gonna win 350 electoral votes.

Without citing polls, tell me what the purpose of a year of dividing America when it will change nothing is? You can't kick him out of office. He could easily win again with or without impeachment from the Democrats. It could backlash, it might not. But what's the purpose of putting the country through it?

What is the point of dividing America? The Right has done its share to divide America for a long time. Start with the so-called Moral Majority in the 1970s. Only later came the Tea Party.

Nobody is now citing polls. I am  not predicting what the polling will be for President Trump next week.  Donald Trump never had the liberals and is finding conservatives who were more concerned about economics (regulatory relief, tax cuts) than anything else who could hold their noses and vote for Trump are leaving him. People who believe in freedom hold suspect a President who has sold out America to a country hostile to democracy.

The remaining question is whether Mike Pence has guilty knowledge about Trump activities. If he does, then he must also go.

The best that we might do is to have a conservative President with no taint of Trump. The optimal Republican President would be someone with the skill set of Reagan and the temperament of Eisenhower, which would be a conservative version of Barack Obama. Such a politician could win election in 2020, but the damage that two more years of Trump (or Pence should he be tainted) is not worth any Democratic advantage in 2020.   

I question whether Republican pols other than Trump got aid in 2016 that allowed them to win. We obviously can't re-litigate the House (now moot), but there might be some Senate seats.

Whether you are a liberal or a conservative, you must recognize that credibility of the system  matters far more than getting your way or getting some transitory advantage. America may have been in a conservative mood since 2010, but it has never been in the mood for corruption or fascism. Witch hunt? Witches of the Wicca sort are no threat. We have far worse to root out.

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Schiff: Trump may face ‘real prospect of jail time’

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https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1071794159261020160

Why wait?


It's not like he's going to be less of a President just because he's locked in a jail cell. He can get his briefings and sign documents during visiting hours, and meet with foreign dignitaries for photo ops in the exercise yard. He can spend the rest of his time sitting and watching cable news and shouting, just like now. If anything, his image should be improved by the inability to fire off stream of consciousness insults to the whole world or watching his sad antics during public appearances. If the cult really misses it, maybe Fox News can start a reality show featuring a cantankerous old racist - or save on budget and just do reruns of the Archie Bunker show. And if the GOP has a problem with it, they can still replace him with Pence whenever they want.

He could flee the country at a reasonable opportunity.  He could sneak over to the Russian embassy.

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A decision that indicting a sitting President without impeachment and removal is allowed could be abused. I can see some DA out to make a name filing a manslaughter charge against a future Democrat President for letting an illegal immigrant into the country who then killed someone...

Nobody could ever convict someone for an administrative error . So, physician, why did you not counsel the mother of this future serial killer to abort the baby? So, police officer -- why were you patrolling 5th Street instead of 6th Street where a drunk driver slammed into a pedestrian? So, Mr. President, why did you let the Pearl Harbor attack happen on your watch? You must resign on behalf of someone more competent.

We are not expected to have or use prophetic powers.     

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3 years is a substantial amount of time for a first offender on this sort of nonviolent crime. Cohen's not getting off easy. Won't be eligible for early release for 2 1/2 years.

Has to report to prison in March.

In a federal case? Not really. I'm surprised it was that low.

White collar offenders get very long time, even for first offenses, if they are involved in criminal enterprises or have committed multiple crimes. Thus Madoff. Many of the federal non-violent offenders have done large-scale frauds -- and those often involve mail fraud or wire fraud. It is hard to commit a large-scale financial crime without committing either mail  fraud (soliciting fraudulent transactions by mail, or getting payments by mail) or wire fraud (using broadcast media or the Internet to solicit dishonest business). Getting funds by check  or credit card typically imply wire fraud because most transactions involving a check or credit card imply a wire transfer of funds at some point.

The feds treat mail fraud and wire fraud with great seriousness. 

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Doesn't treason actually require the US to be at war with Russia?

Treason can include dirty deals before a war or a 'hostile takeover'.

Article 3, Section 3 defines treason as a offense to be prosecuted:

Definition: In Article III, Section 3 of the United States Constitution, treason is specifically limited to levying war against the US, or adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort. Conviction requires two witnesses or a confession in open court.[2]

Penalty: U.S. Code Title 18: Death,[8] or not less than 5 years' imprisonment and not more than life imprisonment without the possibility of parole (minimum fine of $10,000, if not sentenced to death). Any person convicted of treason against the United States will permanently lose the right to ever hold or run for public office anywhere in any capacity within the United States. [9][10]

(Wikipedia)

The idea is to limit the charge of treason to very specific offenses against the sovereignty of the US. That includes a rebellion with the intention of overthrowing a lawfully-constituted US government (the Confederacy never intended to do that),  participating in a puppet regime of a foreign power (think of Quisling or Laval) or giving a foreign power assurances that US forces will be unable to defend themselves (such as by stealing or destroying munitions for a border garrison, guiding enemy forces in an effort to conquer territory, or promising to suppress resistance). Aid and comfort does not mean something so trivial as food and lodging.

There must probably be some malign intent or unjustified reward (money or political authority).

A treason charge is difficult to prosecute. Other acts of treachery from desertion to to terrorism to ervice in an enemy army to espionage to war crimes are easier to prove. Such people, let us say Julius and Ethel Rosenberg, are typically prosecuted as spies, or like John Walker Lindh for illegal transactions with an enemy. 

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But the investigation is still ongoing; Mueller is getting convictions and flip witness. Trump could do a lot more if he was so inclined. Like have the Special Counsel's Office mysteriously catch ablaze.

We have no idea what Whitaker is doing behind the scenes, though, do we?

Whitaker is getting briefed on major developments, but that's it (he has no authority or input). Rosenstein is still supervising.

Side note: does anyone else feel like Atlas as a whole has severely underestimated the scope and potential impact of this investigation since it started?

Good investigations are secretive, and investigators do not leak out information except to set traps for unwary suspects who might do something incriminating. The idea is that the suspect is to do something stupid, like trying to flee, destroy evidence, or discuss with associates how to testify in court.

For incompetence, think of the late Senator Joseph McCarthy, who leaked ill-prepared stories of Communist infiltration of the federal government in the 1950s. For competence, look at Robert Mueller, who leaves the announcements to jury trials or plea bargains. 

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The Russians are coming!

It looks as if we know why Vladimir Putin so likes Donald Trump and disliked Barack Obama. Barack Obama would not tamper with the rule of law to make things easy on those who violate human rights. Donald Trump has contempt for human rights unless it is to protect those associated with him in their pursuit of maximal profits.

Note that this is from CHBC, which is about as conservative and pro-business as CNBC isn't.

 

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I hate to laugh at someone for having gout, but if I have to laugh at someone for that, what better person than Manafort?

Paul Manafort Does Indeed Have Gout

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My uncle had gout a few years ago when he was around 50, which was surprising considering he kept himself in pretty good shape. He pointed out though, that it's not gout. Everyone seems to call it "the gout".

As someone who has endured both gout and a broken bone, the two are similarly painful. Don;t trivialize gout. The best way to deal with it is to drink huge amounts of water. When I have gout I drink water out of a flower vase. That dilutes the uric acid so that it can exit the body.

On the other hand, someone who aided a dictator in bleeding his country could hardly get a more fitting reward.

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Evan McMullin
‏Verified account @Evan_McMullin

Evan McMullin Retweeted Donald J. Trump

I’ve always been fascinated by traitors. They consider themselves highly intelligent, yet fail to understand how likely they are to be caught. When they are, they become men without a home, having betrayed their countrymen and been used by an enemy. So it will be with this one.

https://twitter.com/Evan_McMullin/status/1084111008073949184

The definitive example: Vidkun Quisling, a brilliant man, even thought himself a philosopher. His fall came not from the absurdity of his regime but from the collapse of the Nazi regime that sponsored him. Quisling was a megalomaniac who found his way to what he saw as the Wave of the Future.

For the Red (Commie) side: I think of Matyas Rakosi, who styled himself "Stalin's best Hungarian pupil", who seemed to have followed the lesson plan well right down to the bloody purges. But he was one of those types who squeezes so hard that everybody tries to evade him, and His cruelty and incompetence spurred the Hungarian Revolution of 1956. Had that revolution succeeded there might have been a rope awaiting him upon any return. Rakosi fled to the Soviet Union as his rule got shaky.

Hubristic pride? A juvenile sense of invulnerability?

Remember Caesar: thou art mortal!

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Schiff announces sweeping investigation into Trump's finances

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Beautiful

But partisan witch hunts!

Money is the language of white-collar crime. 

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It is possible that the actual level of collusion was limited; Russia's stuff was done mostly independently and Trump knew very little about it. But he certainly did later on and tried to stymie the investigation.

But any cover-up is as much a crime as the crime itself (except perhaps for murder and rape) in our legal system.

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Who would file charges for lying to Congress anyway?

Did you ever read about the Kefauver Committee? Senator Estes Kefauver organized investigations of organized crime in interstate commerce, and although many mobsters were called before committees of both Houses of Congress, most mobsters knew enough to plead the Fifth Amendment. Had they admitted their crimes, then such would be cause for conviction for crimes themselves. Had they denied what they did they could have been nailed for lying to Congress, which has time in federal prison as a consequence.

the crimes themselves -- or perjury.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_Special_Committee_to_Investigate_Crime_in_Interstate_Commerce