Can the GOP win back the Suburbs without sacrificing WWC voters? (user search)
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  Can the GOP win back the Suburbs without sacrificing WWC voters? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Can the GOP win back the Suburbs without sacrificing WWC voters?  (Read 2801 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: November 21, 2018, 01:00:29 PM »

It's no secret that the Republican Party is hemorrhaging suburban voters at an alarming rate in areas all around the country. From Cobb and Gwinnett counties in my state, to Tarrant County in Texas, to Orange County in California, there seems to be a uniform shift away from Republicans in these areas. My question is, is it possible for Republicans to win back these wealthier, more educated suburban voters while at the same time maintaining their gains with voters in the white working class?

If it's not possible, and Republicans can only win one group, which should they prioritize?

Donald Trump exploited the longstanding rift between white working-class and educated suburbanite voters  to win big among the WWC... and the educated suburban voters are catching on. The two demographics have little in common in values. The WWC has seen educated people as an exploitative and abusive elite for decades.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2018, 09:52:03 AM »

The two groups are so ideologically incompatible that they cannot be part of the same party. The cultural divide is bigger than those between middle-class groups (let us say Jews and Japanese-Americans) who vote heavily Democratic.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2018, 06:42:05 PM »

Those well-educated people were once known as 'Rockefeller Republicans' that remained with the GOP until at least 1988. Obama got them in 2008 and the Democrats have held them.

We need remember that five states that voted for Carter in 1976 and Clinton twice (Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia) all voted against Gore in 2000, all went against Obama by 10% or greater margins in a 52-45 election, and have never shown any sign of going back to the Democrats in Presidential elections. Senator Manchin  barely scraped by in 2018 in a good year for Democrats, but the narrowness of his margin of victory suggests that that will be his last win.

Those states are all below average in most social indicators (poverty, crime, employee pay, and educational attainment), and never were compatible with "Rockefeller Republicans". (Missouri is close to those states in most regards). Texas seems to be drifting D. It never had many "Rockefeller Republicans" until the growth of the high-tech industries, but people who fit that demographic are now commonplace enough for Texas to be more likely to vote against Trump in 2016 than any of  Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, or West Virginia.
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