Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[pbrower2a]

Hmm, poll after poll of catastrophic news for the Dems since the Korea bounce a few week back. Time to face reality.  This is '02 all over again. Even the PA specials were miserable at the lack of swing.

You're, what, 12? You must have no memory of 9/11 or the aftermath.

I get that you're a troll and moderation tolerates this nonsense, but don't speak about events that you have no memory of.

I am cautious enough to expect that even if the bump diminishes I cannot predict how much it will diminish. I will wait until I see some statewide polls to make any assessment. My map at this point seeks to establish the possibility (or lack thereof, or likelihood) of a re-election of President Trump, Nationwide polls have looked better for him, but the optimism that he may have parlayed into polling improv3ement just may have vanished. Note that I say "may have", as I rely upon statewide polling. The states elect the President, and the People do not.

[pbrower2a]

Congrats Senator Heller.

https://twitter.com/RileySnyder/status/997170065182085121

From before the collapse of North Korean de-nuclearization talks, 50% disapproval says that President Trump will not win Nevada. Besides, Nevada is a tough state to poll. It's Greater Las Vegas, Greater Reno-Sparks-Carson City, and a great expanse of thinly-populated rangeland and desert.

Besides, changes in polling results within the margin of error do not merit discussion as proof of anything. 

[pbrower2a]

Isn't it amazing? The trolls don't even know enough to have caution about changes in one poll in one state when those changes are within the margin of error.

[pbrower2a]

PPP

WI - 46/50 (-4)
AZ - 46/50 (-4)

http://ktvk.images.worldnow.com/library/d417fb2e-5764-4a05-839f-642b6307a018.pdf
https://www.tmj4.com/news/political/politics-on-a-plate-trump-s-approval-rating-and-the-affordable-care-act

From August 30, 2010; 12:18 AM:

And in Wisconsin, where Sen. Russell Feingold (D) and Oshkosh businessman Ron Johnson (R) are squaring off, a University of Wisconsin survey showed Obama's job-approval rating at 49 percent, with 46 percent disapproving. (-4%)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/29/AR2010082903878.html

More meaningless dogshít polls

No -- only early. We have yet to see how Americans react to the implosion of hopes about the ending of the North Korean nuclear and missile programs. There could be much polling going on this weekend, the last before Labor Day.

[pbrower2a]

SurveyUSA-Georgia: Approve 36, disapprove 42

22% undecided in what has looked like a swing state? I can't use it. I can use the polls for Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin, though.

[pbrower2a]

First statewide poll that I have shown for a while. The other two either are favorability (Michigan) or have a wide difference between approval and disapproval (about 15%) in a swing state (Florida). It's Tennessee.  I have seen few polls from during that 'bump'. It may be just as well that we saw few of those.

 

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Similar to the NC poll in showing statewide increase in approval for the President.

[/quote]

I expect the bump that the President got for the talk of getting a nuke agreement with North Korea will dissipate soon. We have seen few polls from during the bump, and at that we may be blessed. I'm predicting a return to 'normal'.

The Senate seat looks within range of a takeover by the Democrats with those favorability numbers.

PPP (for advocacy groups) 46-50. Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin.

Approval:

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.  

[pbrower2a]

ARG, May 17-20, 1100 adults (change from last month)

Approve 37 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Approval/disapproval by party ID:

R: 82/14
D: 6/91
I: 34/60

Inconsistent with a bump for promises of a nuke deal with North Korea by the alleged Great Negotiator. Poor pollster, but consistent with Trump support being 40% or lower.

[pbrower2a]

ARG, May 17-20, 1100 adults (change from last month)

Approve 37 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Approval/disapproval by party ID:

R: 82/14
D: 6/91
I: 34/60

Inconsistent with a bump for promises of a nuke deal with North Korea by the alleged Great Negotiator. Poor pollster, but consistent with Trump support being 40% or lower.

Not necessarily.  ARG has always had poor approval numbers for Trump.  I think they've been in the 30's for his entire presidency.

I am not going to say that 37% approval is equivalent to 37% of the vote, which is close to the minimum for Presidential nominees of one of the two major parties in binary elections. I find it hard to believe that Donald Trump would do worse in 2020 than Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. But this brings the narrative that he will not be re-elected back to the range of self-evidence.

The more significant number is the 58% disapproval, which means that people canvassing for the President in 2020 will have a tough time convincing people except in areas in which the President gets strong support. I can see 58% of the American public not voting for him.

In any event -- watch the statewide polls. Those show the true flavor of a Presidential race.  With disapproval that high, the Democrats would have to bring out an overt criminal as a nominee to lose to Donald Trump. 

[pbrower2a]

Trashmussen

Approve: 47% (-3)
Disapprove: 51% (+2)

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

The President can't win re-election with this level of disapproval.

[pbrower2a]

West Virginia, internal poll for Senator Manchin



Sure, this is an internal poll for Senator Manchin (who is up 50-42 over the Republican nominee). But in this, Trump is seen favorably 61-36. There would seem to be no Trump coattails to help a Republican nominee for the US Senate seat up for election in West Virginia. But this is favorability, and not approval, so I can't use it. Were it approval, it would look good for the President in West Virginia.  

[pbrower2a]

Texas, Quinnipiac

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https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2542


...Texas is getting much more attention than has been usual in polling.

Washington (state), PPP:

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This bodes ill for President Trump in areas of farming and ranching.


Approval:

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.  

[pbrower2a]

Farmers and ranchers have ordinarily been a core constituency for Republicans. That may not be so in 2018 and 2020, which means that Republicans can lose badly -- Senate seats, House seats, Governorships... in the High Plains. The Presidency? These states are not going to make or break Republican campaigns for President.

[pbrower2a]

Watch out for North and South Dakota this year and in 2020. They could be battlegrounds in 2020?

If those two states (or Kansas or Nebraska) should be battlegrounds in  2020, then there will likely  be a Democratic landslide

[pbrower2a]

ND and SD are such small states,  it's like HI,  not worth it.

But the people of those states are worth it.

[pbrower2a]

Just a couple things to throw some cold water on the Trump obituaries in this thread lately...

—Trump’s RCP average (44.6%) is the highest it has been since April 2017.

—Obama’s RCP averages in the summer of 2010 fluctuated between 43-47%.

Both of these facts are provably true with hard data, but I’ll just sit back and wait to be called a delusional bullshi++er for asserting them.

RCP includes landline polls by Rasmussen. Landline-only polling is obsolete because landline-only phone users skew elderly and conservative.   

[pbrower2a]

Texas, PPP:


Approval 49 disapproval 46

https://www.scribd.com/document/381154820/PPP-poll-of-TX-SEN-for-Giffords

Quinnipac poll is later. It holds.

 

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.  



[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

That 43-28 intensity gap between "strongly disapprove" and "strongly approve" is going to be his undoing one day.

Around election time it will be obvious. People canvassing for President Trump will encounter much hostility. That might not be so obvious in August, but as the leaves start to turn, the discouragement will cripple his campaign. There might also be fewer canvassers as those come from the "strongly approve" category.

Canvassing can turn out votes. It can get people to recognize that there might good cause to vote in ways contrary to what is expected. It may have turned a nearly-even Presidential election in 2008 into a near-landslide and given a victory to a struggling President in 2012. It may have been the difference between what looked like a Clinton landslide in 2016 into something in reach for Donald Trump, who had an unlikely and unseen army of supporters.

It may be predictive blindness on my part, but I cannot see President Trump recovering, let alone expanding, his base in 2020. He is vindictive, cruel, and insensitive. He chooses Cabinet officers who see nothing wrong with offending the sensibilities of a near-majority due to extremism and arrogance. He has achieved nothing except to satisfy his base. Maybe people can come to like that.

If you think that he can prevail against an incredibly-weak or an allegedly-extreme opponent, then think again. That's what Jimmy Carter's people thought of Ronald Reagan.  To be sure, Carter and Trump show very different problems as President, but I can't see a difference in effect yet that puts Trump in reach of re-election.   

[pbrower2a]

Back to where he has been at his worst. Can he go lower? I doubt it. He's got too many cultists behind him who would believe him no matter what.

[pbrower2a]

Back to where he has been at his worst. Can he go lower? I doubt it. He's got too many cultists behind him who would believe him no matter what.

Trump's cult is no bigger than any other President. It's no surprise that his approval is as "high" as it is when the economy is doing pretty good. Most people don't obsessively follow every news story and care that Pruitt did some stuff or Trump said some mean thing. They tend to look at the overall story. And for most people... they are about as good or slightly better off than they were in 2016, with a marginally bigger pocketbook thanks to rising wages + tax cuts.

You'll see how small his cult really is if things actually start going south for people. His approvals may go down to about 25-29... which is exactly around Bush's levels.

Trump's cult is far larger than any other major American leader. Anyone else does half the sh**t he's done they'd be gone. A result of decades of anti-intellectualism.

Nope. His strong approvals are no higher than Bush's, Obamas, or anyone elses.

You say that Trump is so obviously bad... but most Americans have been doing better in the past 2 years than they were before 2016. It's easy to see why GOP partisans are mostly sticking with the President when their pockets are fatter and the economy is improving. Many don't like some specific Trump action.... but the USA is doing better than it was before 2016. Most people who approve of Trump now would approve of Bush, or would approve of Romney, etc.

The damage of bad leadership takes several years to manifest itself in failed wars and in corrupt booms that go bust. The second Gulf War seemed to go well enough for a while. The corrupt boom in real estate speculation under Dubya took six years before it imploded. Do you remember the big hustle of Dubya's "Ownership Society"? People were enticed to buy houses that they could never afford with loans with negative amortization and balloon payments down the line that the borrowers would never be able to pay. Unable to pay the huge down payment two years later, they would default on a house rising in value... and the lender would get a profit from selling a house of increased valuation to another customer. That was more profitable than waiting for regular payments to come in from someone who successfully pays off a mortgage. In the end there is nobody able to buy the property, and the lender gets stuck with a foreclosed property no longer marketable. When that happens often enough, the real estate bubble collapses.

The hustle with Donald Trump is rising rents. Eventually people end up spending everything on rent and having to scavenge in garbage cans. That too goes bust. 
 

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Rural areas will get hit hardest and earliest with high input prices (especially energy) and low commodity prices. I see that happening already. Farmers and ranchers, usually a conservative segment of the political order, will be the first to feel the hit from the consequences of the President's trade war. If the causes were not quite the same, Rural America went from reliably conservative to being in strong support of the New Deal of Franklin Roosevelt.

Let us also remember that well-educated people might have sympathy for people of limited learning, but they also have unwavering contempt for people of pompous ignorance such as that of Sarah Palin or Donald Trump. Note the thread on the Republican Party treating ignorance and superstition as virtues. Note well that well-educated people voted for Barack Obama, and that the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 will be the one most capable of attaching to the legacy of Barack Obama. Such a leader will fault Republicans and well-heeled special interests for the failure to enact the Obama agenda in full.

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Bill Clinton had a sane foreign policy. His economic policy (of course you can give Republican majorities at the time some credit) led to budget surpluses. The Whitewater scandal went nowhere. Most people excoriated his sexual dalliances.

Today we see careers ruined in the media and politics (probably academia and commerce as well) for sexual misconduct. Think of Al Franken, whom Democrats supported and gave up on. His sex scandals are far less severe than those of Donald Trump.

Most people see the current boom resulting from Obama -- not Trump. We have a nearly-nine-year boom in stock-market valuations. That is unusually, freakishly long. President Trump excoriates his predecessor at every turn.

Donald Trump causes me to question whether being an American is so great anymore. I have questions about his fundamental decencies, including respect for the rule of law. He governs in a way that one can interpret as either despotic or dictatorial, depending on interpretation; either one is contemptible. He insists upon winning no matter what cost others pay -- and I question more whether he will allow us the free election that we have come to recognize as a norm. His vituperative attacks on opponents and backsliders suggest a tyrant or his propagandists or hanging judges.

The best thing that I can say of the American political system is that it is not easy for him to transform into a vehicle of despotic rule. Maybe his sordid personality will fail at his objective of America as a reflection of his vile self.     

[pbrower2a]

President Obama can no longer get any blame for any economic meltdown. Any fault goes to Trump from here on.

[pbrower2a]

President Obama can no longer get any blame for any economic meltdown. Any fault goes to Drumpf from here on.

Agreed, though if that is the case, are voters now more likely to associate the good economy with Drumpf and not Obama?

Unfortunately yes even though all he has done for it is sign a tax cut bill and introduce unnecessary tariffs.

Disruptive, distorting tariffs could put an end to such prosperity.

[pbrower2a]

The environmental damage could take decades to undo. Higher profits from quick-buck shortcuts that allow current investors to reap quick profits and executives to reap huge bonuses will not be paid for in environmental amelioration. That's the Trump economic policy: privatize the profits and socialize the costs.

The expressions of Trump, Pruett, et al. are now more offensive than obviously harmful, especially if the environmental damage is done in secrecy. But as a rule, someone always pays.

[pbrower2a]

Another Q poll, this time of Ohio:

Quinnipiac-Ohio:

43% Approve
54% Disapprove

Source

In fact an improvement for the President, but not by much for approval. But disapproval is really awful for a state that might be R+4.

PPP and Quinnipiac are usually close, and this:

PPP:

Approve - 39%
Disprove - 54%

No change.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/PPP_Release_National_61318.pdf

suggests that the President has an absolute ceiling near 46% of the vote in a binary election. The low approval number suggests that he might face an internecine struggle for re-nomination or face a challenge from the Right. 39% is his floor, but that is close to the level of America's worst electoral losers. 

 

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.  


[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Franklin&Marshall, Pennsylvania. It has two measures of support for President Trump:

Excellent/good 35%

No mention is of poor and fair as numbers, but they obviously must be high together. I cannot accept this polling.  

Favorability:

Strongly favorable 26%
Somewhat favorable 14%
Undecided 3%
Somewhat unfavorable 7%
Strongly unfavorable 51%

77% of Pennsylvanians have strong opinions of the President, and the negative opinions lead almost two to one.

I do not conflate favorability to approval even if the pollster suggests favorability is a measure of performance.

But nobody can deny that this is a horrid result in a state that President Trump barely won in 2016 and probably needs in 2020.  

June 4-10, and it will not be placed on the map.

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/93840024988851901-f-m-poll-release-june-2018.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Tennessee is a battleground state for the Senate in 2018.