Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[pbrower2a]

Is it true that Obama never dipped below 44% in approval from 2009-2016?

That seems fairly remarkable

No, he dipped as low as 40 on several occasions.  http://news.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

...most critically in the first week of November 2014, when Republicans made big gains in the Senate that will not be undone until at least 2020.

Now I am not saying that 40% or lower approval for President Trump ensures that the Democrats take back the Senate. Democrats have far too many targets against that the Republicans think that they can win, and too few for winning back a majority that Republicans now hold. The 2018 Senate election is still an echo of the 2006 Democratic wave.

Count on this: the vested interests will put huge amounts of money into the 2018 Senate races. They want America to be a pure plutocracy, and should 2020 be an R disaster, then they will want some cushion. After all, no human suffering is in excess so long as it enriches or pampers the elites or enforces the will of those elites.

[pbrower2a]

^^^
He wouldn't win New Hampshire after calling it a drug infested den.

"How stupid are the people of Iowa?"

Iowa was always more friendly to a Trump type candidate. NH is not voting GOP in 2020.

Iowa has been more amenable to  populist style and appeals, than, for example, Virginia. 

[pbrower2a]

With the President in a "double-dog-dare you" mode...

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.wbaltv.com/article/poll-approval-ratings-for-gov-hogan-pres-trump/12462526

This is the first polling data that I have seen for any state for the last couple of weeks. I hope to see more soon from states more critical to the re-election of the President . Even if the state is Maryland, which President Trump cannot win in a free election, the "71% disapproval" is significantly worse than what I already had at "66% ".

This is the sort of support that one would expect of someone about to be overthrown in a military coup in some other country. Fortunately for President Trump Maryland is far out of the national average.

But just imagine how nasty things would be in America if the 71% approval were nationwide and we were nowhere near the next Presidential election.

Approval

Trump ahead      Trump behind

55% or higher    45% to 49%
50% to 54%       40% to 44%  
45% to 49%       under 40%

Ties are in white.



Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less


Ties are in white.


That's 68 electoral votes in places in which the President has disapproval ratings of 70% or more,  108 in which his disapproval is in excess of 65%, and 231 in which his disapproval ratings are 60% or higher.  

[pbrower2a]

This is the first polling data that I have seen for any state for the last couple of weeks. I hope to see more soon from states more critical to the re-election of the President . Even if the state is Maryland, which President Trump cannot win in a free election, the "71% disapproval" is significantly worse than what I already had at "66% ".

This is the sort of support that one would expect of someone about to be overthrown in a military coup in some other country.

That's absurd and factually inaccurate. Have you seen the opinion polling of some other Western leaders? Francois Hollande was regularly in the single-digits for much/most of his Presidency in France.

1. I refer to Maryland, which is a huge, well-known outlier in American politics.

2. I can hardly imagine America going so bad that President Trump could ever have an approval rating near 71% nationwide until he is close to leaving office (like three years from now) when the solution is to wait him out. Truman and Dubya got similar disapproval ratings near the ends of their Presidencies. Nixon? The Vice-President (once Spiro Agnew resigned) was a viable option.

3. France is not the sort of country in which military coups happen.

[pbrower2a]

3. France is not the sort of country in which military coups happen.

Barack Obama got along well with the military and intelligence services, much unlike President Trump. Caution and decency go a long way in leadership.

The Obama Presidency was a bad time in which to be a terrorist.

[pbrower2a]

Can it get worse?

The only organization capable of a rescue of desperate people in Puerto Rico in a timely manner is the Armed Services.

If I were President, the rescue of hundreds of thousands of Americans from thirst, hunger, heat, and medical distress comes before legislation and any 'culture wars'.  Add to this, I would not brag about my achievements until the job is done.

If I were Kim Jong-Un I would see this as evidence of the incompetence of President Trump.

[pbrower2a]

Fox News, Sep 24-26, 1017 RV (change from last month)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (-2) (New low in this poll)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

Do you think Donald Trump has the temperament to serve effectively as president? (change from Dec.)

Yes 37 (-7)
No 59 (+7)

Ouch. Ouch. Ouch.

The high rate of "strongly disapprove" suggests a massive defection from  this President already underway.   

[pbrower2a]

Fox News, Sep 24-26, 1017 RV (change from last month)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (-2) (New low in this poll)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

Do you think Donald Trump has the temperament to serve effectively as president? (change from Dec.)

Yes 37 (-7)
No 59 (+7)

How does one approve of Donald Trump's performance as president but simultaneously think he does not have the temperament to serve effectively?

Old guard conservatives who are embarrassed by his behavior but are making buck off the high stock market

It is simpler than that. We have yet to see consequences other than offenses to liberal and moderate sensibilities.

[pbrower2a]

Alabama, DDHQ 9/27-28, 590 LV

Strongly approve 219 38.8%
Somewhat approve 89 15.8%
Somewhat disapprove 42 7.4%
Strongly disapprove 200 35.5%
Undecided 14 2.5%

Total approve - 54.6%
Total disapprove - 42.9%

In the Senate race, they have Moore 50.2%, Jones 44.5%.

Approval

Trump ahead      Trump behind

55% or higher    45% to 49%
50% to 54%       40% to 44%  
45% to 49%       under 40%

Ties are in white.



Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less


Ties are in white.

[pbrower2a]

SurveyMonkey, Sep 22-28, 16,638 adults (change from 2 weeks ago)

Approve 40 (-5)
Disapprove 57 (+4)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+5)

The numbers for everything but "strongly approve" have changed at or just more than the margin of error. "Strongly approve" is so low that the decline of 2% is nearly a 10% drop in the number of people in that category. 

[pbrower2a]

Hawaii navy blue? Is that a mistake?

Thank you. Correction made.

I would assume so since the disapprove map has it at 64 percent.

[pbrower2a]

I wonder if his ratings will take a hit as a result of his incompetence regarding the Hurricane Maria aftermath in Puerto Rico.

This is worse than Katrina, and we know what Hurricane Katrina did to the polling numbers for Dubya.

Lying, glory-seeking fool!

[pbrower2a]

I wonder if his ratings will take a hit as a result of his incompetence regarding the Hurricane Maria aftermath in Puerto Rico.

This is worse than Katrina, and we know what Hurricane Katrina did to the polling numbers for Dubya.

Lying, glory-seeking fool!

I would assume Bush's numbers prior to that were higher than Trump's now, though. Also partisan loyalty probably wasn't quite as high then.

Dubya saw his approval ratings soar in the wake of 9/11. That's not a fair comparison for any President.

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, Washington Post:

 Trump, approval 33%[18 strong, 15 somewhat], disapproval 59%[11 somewhat, 48 strong] (registered voters)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/10/05/National-Politics/Polling/release_495.xml

The focus of this poll is in the gubernatorial race. Northam (D) has an overwhelming 54-41 lead over Gillespie (R), the libertarian getting 4% of the vote.  Gillespie is seen as a Trump supporter, but President Trump is not a factor for 54% of voters -- but support for the President will influence their votes positively for 17% of voters and opposition to him will influence 28% of voters negatively.   
 

Approval

Trump ahead      Trump behind

55% or higher    45% to 49%
50% to 54%       40% to 44%  
45% to 49%       under 40%

Ties are in white.



Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less


Ties are in white.


[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Trump and hispanics

National
Approve: 24%
Disapprove: 76%

Florida
Approve: 36%
Disapprove: 64%

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-reg-florida-hispanic-poll-trump-20171004-story.html

This may explain how execrably President Trump is doing in Colorado and new Mexico and why he is doing about as badly in Texas as in Iowa and Ohio. 

[pbrower2a]

Many of the Hispanics in Florida are right-wing Cuban-Americans.

[pbrower2a]

Trump and hispanics

National
Approve: 24%
Disapprove: 76%

Florida
Approve: 36%
Disapprove: 64%

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-reg-florida-hispanic-poll-trump-20171004-story.html

This may explain how execrably President Trump is doing in Colorado and new Mexico and why he is doing about as badly in Texas as in Iowa and Ohio. 

Is this really that bad?  The Florida number is actually higher than his 35% Hispanic vote according to exit polls in 2016.  Nationally his approval among Hispanics seems to be down less than among the electorate overall and I wouldn't assume all people that disapprove of him wont vote for him.  Some don't like him but will vote for him for ideological reasons.

At this level, a difference of 1% is statistical noise. Participation may matter more.

AP: 32/67
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ap-poll-just-24-percent-say-us-heading-in-right-direction/ar-AAsZSgo

Freezing.

This looks like an outlier, but we will have some corroboration if it should prove valid.

[pbrower2a]

The AP poll appears to be an outlier.

No other poll even comes close to the cross tabs

33% of Republicans do not disapprove of trump

That is about a 5 standard deviation difference than other recent polls

In 2016 the polls suggesting that Donald Trump was closing in on Hillary Clinton and that Democratic edges in Senate races vanishing looked like outliers. Then they proved true in the 2016 election. Just when you think that approval ratings for President Trump have recovered a little from their lowest comes a poll like this. But then comes some erratic and discreditable behavior, including the "calm before the storm" nonsense.  

Watch for more polls. They could corroborate or disavow this polling result.  

[pbrower2a]

If he's having another downturn what do we think the cause is? Is it the response to Puerto Rico finally showing up in the polls?

This could be.

All of America is at risk of some natural disaster -- blizzards, earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, forest fires, and [possibly] tsunamis or volcanic eruptions... Dealing with natural disasters is part of the job of the President, who has great resources (the Armed Services for rescues and the Treasury for reconstruction). Although the President might get no electoral credit for doing what is expected of him, as with Obama and some tornadoes... but should he bungle a relief effort, the President gets raked over the political coals. He should be raked over the coals for that.

The Red River (of the North) forms the boundary between Minnesota and North Dakota. Minnesota is usually Democratic in Presidential elections. It is also extremely vulnerable to floods because it thaws from south to north. Two of the larger cities of North Dakota,  Fargo and Grand Forks are in its flood plain. I could imagine Minnesota going for the Republican nominee if a Democratic President bungles flood relief along the Red River (because he is also bungling it on some vulnerable rivers in Minnesota). But could a Republican President have trouble with winning North Dakota in the event of a bungled response to the flood? Maybe.  

When the President bungles hurricane relief to Puerto Rico he scares the rest of us Americans.  His self-praise looks bad, too.  

[pbrower2a]

State of New York

Favorable: 28%
Unfavorable: 68%
Don't know/No opinion: 4%

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0917_Crosstabs.pdf

Like throwing candle-wax on a gasoline fire. At this rate, Trump will be lucky to avoid losing his home state by 40%.

From Reuters/Ipsos: Among rural voters, Trump is at 47/47, compared to 55/39 during the first week of his presidency.

Figuring that the American rural vote has gone Republican in every Presidential election since 1964, this is really bad news for the President, and quite possibly for the GOP. This may explain surprisingly-poor approval ratings for the President in such states as Indiana, Kansas, and Nebraska. West Virginia, too?  

The farm vote and the ranch vote are big chunks of the rural population and of course practically absent from urban populations. The farm vote is largely to the east of the 100th meridian, and the ranch vote is largely to the west of the 100th meridian. If the President is losing the farm vote, then he is losing not only 'urban' states with large rural populations like Michigan and Wisconsin, but also Ohio and Iowa -- maybe Indiana as well. West Virginia isn;t cattle-ranch country, so this could explain why the approval and disapproval ratings for West Virginia are so close.

If it is the ranch vote, then he could be losing Montana, which is much smaller game. But even such states as Nebraska,  North Dakota and South Dakota have some urban areas, so President  Trump could lose the Dakotas by splitting the rural vote evenly and losing such places as Bismarck, Fargo, Minot, Grand Forks, Rapid City, and Sioux Falls. We know about Greater Omaha and thus NE-02... but if Trump loses the farm vote he loses NE-01 as well. Then there's Texas. Texas has some very Right-leaning cities (Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland, Odessa, Wichita Falls), but it also has some giant cities (Houston, Dallas, San Antonio) and near-giant cities (Fort Worth, Austin, El Paso) and the heavily-Democratic areas in the lower Rio Grande Valley that go heavily Democratic. Splitting the rural areas while Trump loses the cities (and don't be fooled by suburban-fringe counties of Dallas and Houston having gone R for a long time; they are drifting D as have suburbs with similar demographics).

But what about race, patriotism, guns, and religion? Rural areas outside the South are not particularly racist. Should the American rural vote have more of a North-South split than the farm-ranch split, then President Trump might do sort-of-OK in the South but get clobbered in the rural North. Guns? Liberals are wise to avoid talking about gun control. Patriotism? The rural areas of America give more than their share of the members of the American Armed Services. Parents of soldiers may be patriotic, but they have little cause to cherish any reckless saber-rattling, let alone aggression. Religion? Donald Trump doesn't seem particularly Christian. If the even split of rural America gives President Trump an edge in the South in the rural vote, then the Democrat could easily win a map that looks like an Eisenhower win in the 1950s -- or Obama 2008 with the High Plains added.

Donald Trump surely knows less about rural America than does Obama, who at least won Illinois in a landslide in his Senate race and did better in non-southern rural America in 2008 than the usual northern Democrat.

Over size image

 



  
 

Approval

Trump ahead      Trump behind

55% or higher    45% to 49%
50% to 54%       40% to 44%  


45% to 49%       under 40%

Ties are in white.



Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less


Ties are in white.

[pbrower2a]

State of New York

Favorable: 28%
Unfavorable: 68%
Don't know/No opinion: 4%

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0917_Crosstabs.pdf

Like throwing candle-wax on a gasoline fire. At this rate, Trump will be lucky to avoid losing his home state by 40%.



That’s the main conclusion from a new Susquehanna Polling and Research poll commissioned by ABC27. The numbers are dismal for two Democrats seeking re-election next year and for the Republican in the White House less than a year.

The poll was conducted the last week of September among registered voters across Pennsylvania.

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, 37 percent approved, 53 percent disapproved and 10 percent were undecided.

http://abc27.com/2017/10/09/poll-finds-low-approval-ratings-for-wolf-casey-trump/

A bit old now. Susquehanna Polling tends to skew Republican, so this is awful. 

From Reuters/Ipsos: Among rural voters, Trump is at 47/47, compared to 55/39 during the first week of his presidency.

Figuring that the American rural vote has gone Republican in every Presidential election since 1964, this is really bad news for the President, and quite possibly for the GOP. This may explain surprisingly-poor approval ratings for the President in such states as Indiana, Kansas, and Nebraska. West Virginia, too?  

The farm vote and the ranch vote are big chunks of the rural population and of course practically absent from urban populations. The farm vote is largely to the east of the 100th meridian, and the ranch vote is largely to the west of the 100th meridian. If the President is losing the farm vote, then he is losing not only 'urban' states with large rural populations like Michigan and Wisconsin, but also Ohio and Iowa -- maybe Indiana as well. West Virginia isn;t cattle-ranch country, so this could explain why the approval and disapproval ratings for West Virginia are so close.

If it is the ranch vote, then he could be losing Montana, which is much smaller game. But even such states as Nebraska,  North Dakota and South Dakota have some urban areas, so President  Trump could lose the Dakotas by splitting the rural vote evenly and losing such places as Bismarck, Fargo, Minot, Grand Forks, Rapid City, and Sioux Falls. We know about Greater Omaha and thus NE-02... but if Trump loses the farm vote he loses NE-01 as well. Then there's Texas. Texas has some very Right-leaning cities (Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland, Odessa, Wichita Falls), but it also has some giant cities (Houston, Dallas, San Antonio) and near-giant cities (Fort Worth, Austin, El Paso) and the heavily-Democratic areas in the lower Rio Grande Valley that go heavily Democratic. Splitting the rural areas while Trump loses the cities (and don't be fooled by suburban-fringe counties of Dallas and Houston having gone R for a long time; they are drifting D as have suburbs with similar demographics).

But what about race, patriotism, guns, and religion? Rural areas outside the South are not particularly racist. Should the American rural vote have more of a North-South split than the farm-ranch split, then President Trump might do sort-of-OK in the South but get clobbered in the rural North. Guns? Liberals are wise to avoid talking about gun control. Patriotism? The rural areas of America give more than their share of the members of the American Armed Services. Parents of soldiers may be patriotic, but they have little cause to cherish any reckless saber-rattling, let alone aggression. Religion? Donald Trump doesn't seem particularly Christian. If the even split of rural America gives President Trump an edge in the South in the rural vote, then the Democrat could easily win a map that looks like an Eisenhower win in the 1950s -- or Obama 2008 with the High Plains added.

Donald Trump surely knows less about rural America than does Obama, who at least won Illinois in a landslide in his Senate race and did better in non-southern rural America in 2008 than the usual northern Democrat.


Approval

Trump ahead      Trump behind

55% or higher    45% to 49%
50% to 54%       40% to 44%  


45% to 49%       under 40%

Ties are in white.



Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less


Ties are in white.