Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

Democrats: permanent minority.

Only if the Republicans kill democracy.

[pbrower2a]

Is it wrong to love watching Trump fail?

It gives at most a grim satisfaction. I predict that we will see a significant change in American political culture. Maybe we will be more critical about facile slogans.

[pbrower2a]

Democratic internal.

Democratic opponent 47%
Flake 31%

Flake approval: 18/62
Trump approval: 44/53

It's pretty clear Flake has pissed off both the GOP base and Democrats, but PPP needs to stop with Generic Democrats and start polling real candidates like Sinema and Stanton.

Internal poll by Democrats, but it is consistent with other polls, and it is by a good pollster (PPP). Trump is doing badly in Arizona. Aside from being an awful President (a reasonably-good Republican President would have an approval rating near the inverse of what this President has in Arizona), Arizona could be drifting D due to California transplants getting away from high rents and the fast-growing Hispanic contingent of the vote (there could easily be some overlap). Arizona has a large Mormon population which is usually enthusiastic enough about a Republican President to keep Arizona in the "R" category. But Donald Trump is not the sort of Republican to excite Mormons.  The difference between '52' and '53' is likely noise...    

Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher

[pbrower2a]

I had to delete the NH thread because the usual suspects were derailing it with their trolling, but as you may know Trump called NH a "drug-infested den" in a telephone conversation with the Mexican president.

So don't be surprised if his disapproval goes up even more in the state, if that's even possible. Hopefully this helps Democrats take back the state for good in 2018.

The last poll of New Hampshire had a 60% disapproval rating for the President.

[pbrower2a]

Firehouse Strategies (R), 2901 LV in swing states (FL, OH, PA, WI).  Changes are from a similar poll in April.

Strongly Favorable 28.6 (-6.7)
Somewhat Favorable 13.3 (+4.1)
Somewhat Unfavorable 7.4 (+0.9)
Strongly Unfavorable 43.6 (+7.6)

Total Favorable 41.9 (-2.6)
Total Unfavorable 51.0 (+8.5)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I can't use this poll in my map. This is a composite between states and not within a state.  Composite data between polls within states, as I have for the Gallup data,  offer the possibility of averaging the data by time, so data in a period from January to July might average as polls from April. The Gallup data has allowed me to fill in spaces with what are in effect April polls if I have nothing newer. I want polls of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and not some mixture of them. For Ohio I have only the Gallup polling data that suggests on the average that approval ratings for President Trump were just slightly underwater in a time that I would average as April. Knowing how the trend has gone nationwide I might expect something like 47-48 to have become 44-51 or so, reflecting a crash in the President's approval rating  that would have repercussions in Ohio.

But my map does not reflect my expectations of what a new poll would say if offered. My map is of polling, and from that one might draw one's own conclusions.  If I were to guess how Donald Trump would do against 'Generic Democrat' in 2020, then I might show a map of such expectations   and identify it as such. I have no intention of showing such a map. Of course we can reasonably expect that since 1968, every incumbent President has sought re-election, we can reasonably expect Donald Trump to seek re-election even if his administration has proved a failure.  70+ in age and with some unhealthy habits (obesity, lack of exercise, poor diet) is not promising. There are people at age 70 that I have more expectation of reaching 80 than I have of some people aged 40 reaching 50 due solely to poor habits of health and good habits. But if something should happen to President Trump, then I would be reasonably confident in predicting that President Pence would run for re-election, in which case these polls would be irrelevant. We would be looking at polls of approval and disapproval.

Note also that I have quit using favorability polls, as I no longer need them. 

So what is useful from this poll? It shows that in three months, a trend in four states in which he needs three of the four (I will lose Pennsylvania and Michigan, making the three other states in this polling composite must-win states for the President.   

Although "Incumbent President" reliably runs for President, "Generic Democrat" and "Generic Republican" are highly active as constructs three years before a Presidential, Senatorial, or Gubernatorial election  -- but go into hibernation as personalities become important.  I am so satisfied with the idea that in 2020 that the incumbent Republican President will be running for re-election even if something happens to President Trump. That would mean that Mike  Pence runs for re-election.

.....

It is easy for me to say that unless President Trump finds ways in which to recover credibility he will go down to defeat. He got elected with less than a plurality of the popular vote (suggesting a statistical freak that one cannot expect to be relevant in 2020), which implies that he will need to develop new sources of political support just to be re-elected.  He has lost ground, and he has done nothing to suggest that he has gained ground. Either subsequent polls or the composite data from Gallup indicate that he is doing nothing that indicates a strong chance of winning bigger in 2020. His closest wins of 2016 (Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire) are swinging against him; a President faring better could expect those states to swing in his favor. Two of his three barest wins (Michigan and Pennsylvania) show evidence of swinging hard against him. 

Yes, a President  can win re-election if he won decisively one year and loses a little ground in the next election. But Barack Obama decisively lost a state that he won under flukish circumstances that weren't going to be repeated (a combination of high oil prices, tight credit, and high interest rates with an economy in apparent free-fall in 2008 allowed Obama to win Indiana, and even if those all got corrected those would work to the benefit of the Republicans).  So he gained nothing from 2008 to 2012 and lost sixteen more electoral votes from North Carolina and the Second Congressional District of Nebraska. He would have still been re-elected had he lost Florida and its 29 electoral votes. That would have still allowed President Obama to win re-election with 303 electoral votes.

But President Trump begins with about the same number of electoral votes as if he had won in a scenario in which President Obama had done as well in 2012 except in Florida. His position in Michigan and Pennsylvania is even worse than that of Obama between 2008 and 2012 in Indiana -- promises made and promises betrayed. He has no wiggle room. No incumbent President has been held in such contempt so early. If you are thinking of Hoover... he was doing fine until the Stock Market Crash of 1929, and it took a while for Americans to realize how bad the situation was and even more to start casting blame on the President.       

[pbrower2a]

Just like Trump would have been screwed had he not inherited a lot of money from his father, so too would he have been screwed if he had not inherited a solid economy from Obama.

88 years ago Herbert Hoover was riding an economy that he inherited from his predecessor, and that economy was chugging along just fine.

Of course, Obama is a far better President than is Coolidge and Herbert Hoover is not known for lacking a moral compass.

[pbrower2a]

Poll by ARG in New Hampshire, but only of people who say that they intend to vote in the Republican Primary of 2020.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

 

Question wording and responses:

If the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary election were being held today between John Kasich and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote - Kasich or Trump? (names rotated)

Kasich 52 - Trump 40

Republicans 51-42
Undeclared  54-37

If the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary election were being held today between John Kasich and Mike Pence, for whom would you vote - Kasich or Pence? (names rotated)

Kasich 41 - Pence 27

Republicans 37-30
Undeclared 48-21

New Hampshire is no longer a microcosm of America, but even this electorally-small state in a corner of the US powerfully suggests that Republicans are beginning to recognize that Donald Trump is a huge mistake.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/pres20/

P.S. -- I can only imagine what a general poll would be like. 

[pbrower2a]

Look at MS/AR. I kind of get MS having low D turnout in 2016 (romney only won by 13), but wow.

I'm thinking that Arkansas and Mississippi are the sorts of states in which connections to anything exotic (like Russia) are suspect, at least to white people. Patriotism matters greatly. There has never been any question of the loyalty of any Republican nominee for President since at least Eisenhower (who was probably suspect on loyalty to white supremacy). Now I think President Trump offers disbelief. 

[pbrower2a]

Poll of Michigan

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.wzzm13.com/news/local/michigan/michigan-poll-shows-president-trump-steady-and-kid-rock-competitive-in-senate-race/461745393


Wow. In a poll where Trump somehow had a 50% approval rating, Stabenow STILL leads by 8

First, even the name of the pollster (of whom I have never heard) looks wrong because even the name of the poster is a craven misspelling. If you remember some of the data from "Loof-Lipra"  Polling on April 1 (get it?) and some others with obvious flaws on that day (approval and disapproval adding to more than 100%, a poll allegedly by a high-school class [Wyatt Earp High School in Tombstone, Arizona -- get it?], and reports with such blatant misspellings as "Inniada" for "Indiana") this almost looks as if it is in the category.  

Second, it uses some suspicious words in polling. "Pretty good"? No other pollster uses that pair of words. There is no distinction between "poor" and very poor".  Note that these are not the usual "approve/disapprove' distinctions.

Third, this looks like a favorability poll that I am no longer using.

Fourth, there are no cross-tabs.

Fifth, the news item contains a picture of one of the candidates.

Sixth, the language of the analysis is biased and un-profesional:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"Some believe"... yeah, sure. Nebulous authority is worthless.

Does anyone think that I need to use this poll? This looks like a "Tell me what I want to hear" poll.  I used to say that beggars can't be choosers -- but in view of some Gallup data filling many states I can make some choices.  This poll almost looks like a spoof if it isn't a spoof. I am astonished that a network affiliate (ABC-13, Grand Rapids, Michigan) would fall for this if it isn;t a hack job or forgery.   

Michigan gets polled often enough that someone will corroborate or (more likely) refute this poll.      

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia

UNH Poll: New Hampshire

Trump approval: 34-55 (-21)

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_summer_presapp080917.pdf

North Carolina, PPP. Not commissioned by any outside group.

Approval/disapproval, President Trump: 44-50  
"Do you think that Donald Trump is really making America great again?" Yes -- 37% No -- 52%
Prefer Obama over Trump -- Obama 49, Trump 45

Approval, Gov. Roy Cooper (D) 48-33
Senator Richard Burr (R) 34-43 (re-elected 2016, up for re-election in 2022)
Senator Thom Tillis (R) 28-45 (up for re-election in 2020)

Generic ballot for US Congress... Democrat 46%, Republican 40%

Prefer the current ACA or something Trump wants? ACA 46%, GOP plan 33%, not sure 21%

Excited about voting in the 2018 election?

Very excited 51%
Somewhat 23%
Not at all 23%

The sample admits to voting 46-44, Trump over Clinton. North Carolina was close -- but not that close. Could it be that people who voted for President Trump often want to forget that they did so? I saw a similar phenomenon with Dubya after 2006 as his approval ratings went into the septic tank.

(amazing since there will be no Presidential, gubernatorial, or Senate election in 2018 in North Carolina).

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_NC_80917.pdf


North Carolina looks about R+6, so draw your own conclusions. I think that Republicans will have a hard time holding onto the House.

Virginia: Quinnipiac, Aug 3-8, 1082 RV

Approve 36
Disapprove 61

They also have Northam over Gillespie 44/38 for Governor, with 4% for the Libertarian candidate.

Senator approvals:

Kaine 54/38
Warner 59/30

Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60-69
reddish-black 70+

[pbrower2a]

After Trump's response to Charlottesville, I predict that he'll go below 35% in Gallup sometime in the coming week.

I dunno...depends on what portion of that 35% supports the Neo-nazis.

There aren't more than about 10K members of Klan groups and 10K members of neo-Nazi groups, with some significant overlaps.

There will be people who believe that those who got hurt or killed had it coming... but political violence is held in extreme contempt in America. People who get the news will figure out what is going on and recognize the Alt-Right for an intent to stir up trouble and getting it.

People who already see Donald Trump as a weak or malign leader will not be convinced otherwise with some hollow condemnation of these deeds. 

[pbrower2a]

10K each, except for allowing some overlap. Charlottesville is within a day's drive from places about as far away as Wisconsin, Missouri, and Louisiana for American fascists, many of whom generally avoid the Klan and the Nazis. After all there are some more 'sophisticated' people in the Alt Right who proclaim a more 'theoretical' basis of white supremacy.

This was apparently a big event for them.

Of course this is nothing like the Million Man March, the Women's March on Washington, or even the national Tea Party rallies. There will probably be more people making travels of more than 200 miles to witness the Great Eclipse of 2017 a week from Monday, for that matter, for what will be a largely apolitical event (although I can imagine people trying to exploit it for political purposes).

[pbrower2a]

After Trump's response to Charlottesville, I predict that he'll go below 35% in Gallup sometime in the coming week.

I dunno...depends on what portion of that 35% supports the Neo-nazis.

As late as the 1990s, when there were WWII vets in the Klan in large numbers, Nazi allusions were unwelcome in the Klan. Although Nazis and Klansmen are fascists with similar objects of hatred (including blacks and Jews), WWII vets in the Klan had no place for Nazism.

That is over. There aren't enough WWII vets to keep Klan groups from adopting Nazi  ideological traits, including the use of the word "Aryan".  

There aren't more than about 10K members of Klan groups and 10K members of neo-Nazi groups, with some significant overlaps.

I don't know if there would be a lot of crossover between the KKK and Neo Nazi groups. The South has the most KKK members and the South is the most hawkish nationalistic part of the country.  I would bet a lot of KKK members have a grandfather who fought in WW2 against the Nazis. That chest thumping militarism would not be very supportive of one of America's enemies.

The Klan is no longer so firmly Southern. For people who believe its racist agenda, Nazism may have been objectionable more as something exotic (German!) or anti-American. But this said, Nazism is no longer German (Nazi ideology, slogans, and symbols are illegal in Germany. Military museums that show a WWII aircraft mute the swastika, and model aircraft for sale in Germany do not have swastika decals.  But I have seen Confederate flags well to the north of the Mason-Dixon Line (and not associated with re-enacting the Civil War)... and I have seen people try to equate Abraham Lincoln with Karl Marx and Vladimir Lenin. 

People with so cranky an ideology as Ku Kluxism no longer care that their late grandfather fought Hitler. Nazi racism is close to Klan racism, even down to Holocaust denial. Does anyone want to find out whether "Jewish Lives Matter" in a Klan-dominated America? There are just too many blacks to process through gas chambers; after all, the Klan would be content with the restoration of race-based slavery. If one has nothing more to be proud of than being white, then the Klan or neo-Nazism just might be of interest. Proud to be white? I would have had no qualms about marrying and having children by a Filipina or Vietnamese wife and having children who can do partial differential equations. Proud of "white culture"? Someone who knows Michelangelo, J S Bach, and Dostoevsky well enough has far more to be proud of than "whiteness".

The Klan and neo-Nazis would probably murder me for my ridicule of them.

[pbrower2a]

Social unrest is not good for approval of a political leader. We shall see how this goes in statewide polling, paucity of which as we have.

[pbrower2a]

Figuring that we some of the polling is three-day composites... things could get worse for approval ratings.

[pbrower2a]

People will be running against President Trump in 2018 and 2020.

[pbrower2a]

The common idea that older millennials would be open to the GOP would be true if they GOP would moderate a la Huntsman, etc. but since that is not happening they won't and will stay Dem in huge numbers (analogous to the FDR Dem coalition). I am an older millennial and voted for Dem for the first time in '16 and support Northam here in VA because of how far to the right the GOP has gone.

I would, however, support a Centrist or Moderate Party should the GOP split in half, or should those parties become a real thing here in the US but that is some time off, imo.

The political center is badly represented in American political life.  There is such an ideological divide between elected Democrats and Republicans in Congress and nobody in the center. You may be well represented if you are a strong Republican in a district with a Republican Representative or if you are a strong Democrat in a district with a Democratic Representative. But if you are a Democrat with a Republican Representative you have a Representative who represents something very different from what you believe; see the same for a Republican in a district with a Democratic Representative.

I had a graphic available of the distribution of elected members of Congress and the electorate. The electorate has a distribution resembling a bell curve with a mode and median around an equilibrium between Democrats and Republicans, between Left and Right. But we have a bimodal distribution of elected Representatives with peaks well to the Left and Right with the center not covered at all.

This reality reflects much of our political pathology.  

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Aug 9-15, 1361 RV (change from Aug 2)

Approve 39 (+6)
Disapprove 57 (-4)

Maybe he told some people exactly what they wanted to believe.

[pbrower2a]

Opinion Savvy:

Approve 43% (35% Strongly)
Disapprove 55% (51% Strongly)

Source

Lefties They're throwing bile everywhere

51% strong disapproval? At that point, 'strong disapproval' is going into the political center.

Face it: conservatives are beginning to dislike the President. A couple days ago, MSNBC showed many public disavowals of the President's statements on the violence and extremism at the "Unite the Right" rally. MSNBC showed no Democratic condemnations. It needed not do so. Elected Republican officials are beginning to see President Trump as a political liability.

At this point, the President, should he run for re-election, will face a primary challenge in the general election or will find a third-party or independent campaign gutting his support.  

[pbrower2a]

Tennessee, PPP. August 11-13, 2017. For an advocacy group, but it does not change the map.

President Trump:

approve 51%
disapprove 42%

Note that this is on the weekend of the Unite The Right rally and before the President's bungled  response, This is practically identical to what I already have for Tennessee, suggesting some stability in the state's polling (barring any effects from the sordid response to the President's mealy-mouthed approach to a murderous affront to the sensibilities  of most Americans.  

Senator Bob Corker (R)

approve 34%
disapprove 47%

...which is execrable. Far worse than for the President. But he wins 47-37 against a generic Democrat. It's hard to remember now that Al Gore was a Senator from Tennessee, but that was 25 years ago when Tennessee had a reputation as one of the most progressive states south of the Ohio River. That is over!

Here's something telling:

Senator Bob Corker voted for the health care law that was being considered by the U.S. Senate. Does that make you less or more likely to vote for him in the next election, or does it not make a difference either way?

 44% Less likely
.......................................................
 33% More likely
.......................................................
 19% Makes no difference
.......................................
  4%  Not sure
.........................................................

http://ourlivesontheline.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Tennessee-PPP-Results.pdf  

Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60-69
reddish-black 70+

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is consistent with disapproval ratings of 60% or more in the three closest wins for the President.  I will update the map when I see the disapproval ratings, as that is a key statistic in my mapping.

I already had disapproval numbers in the low sixties for the President in Michigan and Pennsylvania, which left Wisconsin as the margin of victory in 2020. Iowa, which usually is close to Wisconsin in voting, is probably gone for the President too. I suspect that the full details will be shown on an NBC News program.

I'm not going to discuss Ohio.

[pbrower2a]

The three states that were the closest wins for Donald Trump have turned against him.  He won't be getting them back in 2020 except in a rigged election.

Marist, approval, registered voters (which will skew old because many voters of 2020 will be voting for the first time, and that will be largely younger voters). But even without an infusion of younger, liberal votes President Trump looks to be the political equivalent of a helpless lobster in a cooking pot full of boiling water -- at least in these three states.

Michigan: 36 approve, 55 disapprove.

Trump does above 50% with Republicans, White Evangelicals, "Trump supporters", "Tea Party supporters, and people describing themselves as  'conservative' or 'very conservative' but otherwise does badly among just about every identifiable group. Among men it is 43%, and from there it gets even worse across ever sector of ethnicity, educational level, income, and even region within Michigan, including southwestern Michigan which is usually about as solidly Republican as Alabama.

The Governor is term-limited, so he won't be running for re-election.  That will save him some embarrassment, as he was down 37-47 in favorability.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/MIpolls/MI170813/NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_Michigan%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_August%202017.pdf#page=3  

Pennsylvania: 35 approve 54 disapprove

Much the same as in Michigan -- Trump fails among every group except those directly connected to his ideology. He does have a 44-42 edge among white people without college degrees.

Governor Tom Wolf (D) 47-37 in favorability... good shape.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/PAPolls/PA170813/NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_Pennsylvania%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_August%202017.pdf#page=3

Wisconsin: 34 approve 56 disapprove

Much as in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Even "conservative/very conservative" support is rather weak for usual expectations at 63-26.  

Favorability/unfavorability of Governor Scott Walker : 40-53 among registered voters. He's going down, and he won't be able to help the President in a re-election bid unless he can turn his poor rating of favorability up significantly.  

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/WIPolls/WI170813/NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_Wisconsin%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_August%202017.pdf#page=3

Don't try running against Obama: in Wisconsin, 60% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of President Obama. In Pennsylvania it is 62%, and in Michigan it is 63%.

 

Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60-69
reddish-black 70+

[pbrower2a]

AmericanResearchGroup national poll
Trump Job Approval:
Approve - 33%
Disapprove - 62%


http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

Under 30% and he's going to jail.

Poll of doubtful source, left pathetic

Wasn't ARG one of the few pollsters who were fairly accurate in 2016?  Or am I remembering that wrong?

I don't know about 2016 specifically, but overall they have a C+ rating from 538 based on 260 polls, with a negligible bias (R+0.1).

C+ pollster? A good analogue is that someone taking the test who can answer the questions with obvious answers and some of modest difficulty well enough -- but nothing tougher.

Consistent with a President with crippled credibility.

[pbrower2a]

lol

Lmao, "other"

Yes, "Other" because it includes any form of disapproval. Basically "Crimethink", as Orwell described  thought incompatible with the Party.

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky, PPP: 60-36

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/347362-poll-mcconnells-approval-in-kentucky-at-18-percent

But approval of Senator McConnell is at 18%. Disapproval at 74%. Senator Rand Paul: 37-47.

 http://ourlivesontheline.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/KentuckyResults.pdf

The disparity in approval ratings between the President and the two Senators  is without obvious explanation.  The Senators take the hit for the Trump proposal to return to profiteer-first medicine in one of the poorest states, but the President is somehow exempt from political blow-back? Most of the other questions are related to medical coverage, and they generally go against the GOP agenda.

President Trump must have a full Teflon coverage in Kentucky. McConnell could lose a Senate seat in Kentucky in 2020 while President Trump wins this state decisively.

Arizona (the Arizona Republic, one of the most conservative newspapers in America):


About the Survey

 

The poll surveyed 400 likely Arizona 2018 general election voters who have a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender.  The live interview survey of voters was conducted by HighGround Public Affairs to both landline and cell phone users.  Anticipated turnout for the Arizona 2018 General Election has a partisan gap of Republican +12%.

 

Next, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job the following persons or groups are doing:

 

Q.        President Donald Trump

 

27.5%  Strongly Approve

14.3%  Somewhat Approve

6.5%    Somewhat Disapprove

48.3%  Strongly Disapprove

3.5%    Don’t Know, Refused

(Decimals: that's 42-54  for me as I fill to the next number for Trump and clip for Democrats)


 

Q.        As you may be aware, former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio was found guilty of criminal contempt of court for defying a Judge’s order to halt detention based solely on suspicion of a person’s immigration status.  There has been speculation that President Trump will pardon the former Sheriff.  Knowing what you know right now, would you support or oppose a Presidential pardon of former Sheriff Joe Arpaio?

28.3%  Strongly Support

8.8%    Somewhat Support

6.5%    Somewhat Oppose

50.3%  Strongly Oppose

6.3%    Don’t Know, Refused

Decimals, sure -- but I clip those.

We may be seeing a cultural change in Arizona. First, I'm guessing that lots of Californians escaping high rents and taxes are finding heir way to Arizona, and they are taking their political attitudes and expectations with them (OK, maybe many of those recent Californians are Hispanic, so that implies some overlap). The Hispanic segment of the electorate has been growing . It is more liberal than Anglo whites, and it is well organized politically. Assimilating? Sure. It is assimilating white Anglo people.

Arizona was closer in 2016 than usual, and it could be another Virginia  in its political trend (although either Colorado or New Mexico is a closer analogue in demographics).

Arizona has a big Mormon population -- and President Trump doesn't exactly fit Mormon family values as did... Obama.

Earlier polls have shown Trump treading water in the hottest and driest state in America (horrible pun, isn't it? I should have used that pun for Michigan and Wisconsin, which really have lakes!)... but you get the basic idea. These results are close to the Marist polls for Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But this poll does not deviate much from earlier polls, so it looks good enough for me for now.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2017/08/21/roberts-trumps-approval-arizona-dips-42-percent/588039001/  

The survey was conducted on August 18-19th and the margin of error of the survey is ±4.88% with 95% confidence.  The HighGround team has built a reputation of reliable and accurate polling over the past ten years – our research has been featured on Nate Silver’s 538, Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post, and many other publications. Last year, HighGround “nailed” the Prop 123 election results within 0.2% of the outcome prior to the May 2016 Special election. Clients and surveys conducted by HighGround include League of Arizona Cities and Towns, Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona, Restoring Arizona, Arizona Hospital and Health Care Association, Education Health and Safety Coalition, local school districts, and various candidate campaigns.  Visit our website to learn more about HighGround’s polling experience.

Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60-69
reddish-black 70+