Almost impossible to knock off a first term incumbent

[pbrower2a]

The one with more charisma wins? The problems that Carter and Hoover had in winning re-election had nothing to do with charisma.

Here is how Donald Trump loses:

1. Civil unrest. Donald Trump ran on a racist campaign, and millions of people are going to dislike it because he has gored their ox or because they abhor racism even it is supposedly for their (white) tribe. We will see lots of protests and demonstrations.

2. Economic meltdown. Do seven-year recoveries last long beyond the administration under which they started when the next President changes everything? I doubt it. Get an economic meltdown or high inflation by recent standards, and Donald Trump's legacy is toast.

3. Military or diplomatic catastrophes. War can be great for the profits of merchants of death, but when the body bags return to people who don't understand why the war continues, that all changes. Anti-war demonstrations bring us back to #1.

4. Perceived corruption. I am not predicting that Donald Trump or the GOP will start using the federal treasury as personal piggy banks, but it that happens, then the Republicans own it all.

Donald Trump has no experience in elective office, high appointed office (like Cabinet Secretary or Director of the CIA) or senior military leadership. He is going to try to run the federal government much like Trump Corporation, the only model that he knows for how to administer anything. People who now take the delight when a businessman and not a politician starts running the government like a business so that it will be as ruthlessly efficient as a business with profit-and-loss are going to find that much of government (like welfare, the military, foreign policy, and justice) does not run well that way -- and for that Donald Trump will get it all wrong or have no idea.  

Practically all liberals see no home in things going well for Donald Trump as President even when they disregard ideology.

The opinion that Americans have of Barack Obama will remain high, and all that the Democrats have to do to win the Presidency in 2020 is to have someone who reminds America of the last President generally seen as good by at least 50% of the electorate.      

[pbrower2a]

When was the last time the pv loser got this low of a share of the vote and still won?

No PV loser/EV winner has ever gotten this low share of the vote.

When one starts with a 55% unfavorability rate, one has much credibility to develop and many bridges to build. An even 2% shift in popular vote nationwide causes him or his successor to lose Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida in 2020. Even shifts are rare except in nearly-even races.

People whose sensibilities he insulted in 2016 will have a hard time voting for him in 2020... and many who voted for him will have to decide that he served their needs. So he promised jobs that did not appear or brought those jobs about by degrading the pay and working conditions of those already at work. If one still has a job but is living worse while economic elites live in opulent splendor, then one might see only a raw deal.

Donald Trump will have to betray the desires that he fostered among many workers because he made promises that cannot be delivered together. Add to that, most of those who got shut out of the political process for four years will want back in, and they will be strongly motivated if they are not shut down altogether.

Is there a new JFK/TR/Obama for the Democrats?  Such a young nominee would better understand the economic and political values of younger voters while not being beholden to special interests of aging groups within the Democratic party. Remember: by 2020 all Boomers (if you use Howe and Strauss/ divide between 1960 and 1961 between Boom and X -- Barack Obama is no Boomer; he acts much more like such Presidents as John Adams, Cleveland, Truman, and Eisenhower than like Clinton or Dubya) will be 60 or older at the end of the year. Elderly politicians can govern, but they need younger supporters for the bulk of their votes. Hillary Clinton got tepid support from the youngest voters and may have lost for that.

Minorities? It is easy to say that the Republicans will do better among them because they couldn't do worse than in 2016 while running a frankly racist campaign -- but it takes a long time to undo the damaging perception.

This is before people get to see his political persona fully sink in without the pressure to moderate to seem tolerable to moderates, and before he gets culpability or praise for his economic, military, or diplomatic policies. He is about as reckless as Obama is cautious, and such bodes ill.