The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Your confidence is misplaced. 45/45 are not good numbers for a newly elected president, they are not good numbers for an incumbent running for re-election either. You can plug your ears and pretend Trump is in good shape, but you'd just be lying to yourself.

No, I'm not confident about anything. I don't even care about these polls, because they do not matter at this point in time and don't tell us anything about 2020. Anyway, 45% isn't even bad for him, especially when you consider how much of the opposition to him is concentrated in the population centers of California, Illinois, New York, Maryland, etc. (states that he doesn't need in 2020) and how unpopular he was before the election. While it's nice to see some polls, they don't tell us anything about 2020.

Sure. Which is why I would not have been troubled by Barack Obama having a 35% approval rating in Idaho, Oklahoma, or Wyoming. You know as well as I do that polls of Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and California say little about 2020 because nobody has a reasonable expectation of Donald Trump winning any one of those states in a free and fair election.

But -- Virginia has been a swing state in the last three elections, and President Trump is doing badly there. I also see one for North Carolina, and North Carolina voters seem not to like him now. 

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac

Approve 36%   
Disapprove 44%

Sad!

...but also polarized.  Republicans like him, but Democrats don't by huge margins.

Looking at Trump's personal qualities, American voters say:

    56 - 39 percent that he is not honest;
    49 - 46 percent that he has good leadership skills;
    53 - 44 percent that he does not care about average Americans;
    62 - 33 percent that he is not level-headed;
    68 - 29 percent that he is a strong person;
    65 - 32 percent that he is intelligent.

Donald Trump will do more to divide the country, rather than unite the nation, voters say 55 - 40 percent. His policies will help their personal financial situation, 31 percent of voters say, while 28 percent say they will hurt and 38 percent say they will make no difference.

[pbrower2a]

Here's my  wish list of states for polling:

Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
North Carolina*
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia*
Wisconsin

*Approval only, as I already have favorability.

[pbrower2a]

Here's my  wish list of states for polling:

Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
North Carolina*
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia*
Wisconsin

*Approval only, as I already have favorability.

States with key Senate races, no? MO, IN, ND (rare, I know), MT

Then GA is one to watch. California too, since his numbers could sink a half dozen Republican Congressmen.

Only with reference to the Presidency.

I am surprised that I see so little about Senate races.  Those usually come with presidential approvals.

[pbrower2a]

A rather old poll (two weeks old) of Arizona, and by a Democratic pollster, relating to the US Senate race in 2018. Trump is barely ahead, 47-46 in favorability.  I am also adding white as a provision for a tie.

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  




[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Generally, I wouldn't consider approvals in the first week to give us a solid indication yet as to what is signal and what is noise, but going from 45/45 to 42/50 seems like a noteworthy shift in the course of just one week.

Less than the margin of error for approval, and slightly more than the margin of error for disapproval. It is also early.

This could be over his lie about the size of the crowd witnessing him being inaugurated and his denial of the size of the Women's March. As little as three months from now will those lies matter? Not likely. Maybe he learns something from this. Policies and their consequences will matter far more. Of course he can offend the sensibilities of people who did not vote for him in November and never will. But should he offend sensibilities of people who normally vote Republican, like farm and ranch interests, things will get ugly.

 

[pbrower2a]

Just lol at this board. Finally get something to cling to after your catastrophe that was the 2016 election.

You think you have him beat when he literally has 4 more years of being your president, AT LEAST.

It's just comical. It's like you guys NEVER stop thinking about elections, even after getting your hearts ripped out in the last 2 election cycles.

give it a damn rest and focus on policy, you (insult redacted and reported)

Republicans practically own policy... with a severe bumbler offending the sensibilities of a majority of Americans, so count on resistance when things go wrong. Besides, for most of us, our exercise in politics gets reduced to elections. Yes, we are stuck with Donald t5rump and a crushing GOP majority in both houses of Congress for at least two years.  

[pbrower2a]

PPP had a poll on Milwaukee County. Needless to say it is extremely hostile to Donald Trump and his loyal partner Governor Scott Walker.  I am excited at the prospect of seeing a poll from a state that our dicta... excuse me, President,  won.

[pbrower2a]

PPP had a poll on Milwaukee County. Needless to say it is extremely hostile to Donald Trump and his loyal partner Governor Scott Walker.  I am excited at the prospect of seeing a poll from a state that our dicta... excuse me, President,  won.

It's worth noting that the poll in question has Trump actually doing better there than he did in the election.

It's also a rather elderly sample, with 68% of the people polled over 46.

As a national concern, the big question in Wisconsin will be whether the Governor will get re-elected. He's obviously going to get little help in Milwaukee County.  Should a Democrat win the Governorship in Wisconsin, then Wisconsin will be a very tough hold for the  President.

[pbrower2a]

(moved to accommodate new data)

[pbrower2a]

pbrower, Trump also has negative favorables in AZ.

There was just a new poll yesterday.

39-49

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/8fe0874f-3ee1-4423-9f10-fe49d8a11495/AZ_Statewide_BorderWall_Toplines_1_29_17.pdf

It's easy to see why the border wall and a high tariff against Mexico would be unpopular in Arizona. It would be a disaster from an ecological and economic standpoint... and it would even be costly in human life just to build. It makes far more sense to rush the Arizona 85 link between I-8 and I-10 and  complete the Phoenix-Las Vegas expressway (which are in progress)  -- and maybe create a freeway link to "Arizona's beach" at Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

Tougher enforcement of the border crossings against illegal immigration and drug trafficking? Sure. Obama already did that.  

I did not see the overall topline for issues other than the tariff and the border wall, so I can't modify my map yet.  

[pbrower2a]

What does RAS consider likely voters and why are they polling them in January?

Likely voters are the people statistically least likely to miss a vote.  Those are older, more conservative voters with higher levels of income and education.

[pbrower2a]

pbrower2a, a programming question. At some point, why don't you make a Trump Approval Rating 2.0 Approval rating and just edit your map whenever a new state poll comes out?

For now the statewide polls have been coming out slowly enough (less than one per week) for either favorability or approval. I had to go back three pages to have the map that I copy, one that has both favorability and approval. I expect approval to become more relevant in about a moth (which is March).

Once a week? At this point I might be lucky to find one poll.

I often make comments when I enter a poll, and I expect to see comments about my comments especially if they are off-color or macabre.  

Addendum: I have moved a polling map to accommodate a poll that I did not expect to see.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, New Jersey. The first APPROVAL poll of any state that does not mention 'the transition'.

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve               36%    87%     7%    36%    44%    29%    38%    49%
Disapprove           55      7     88     54     47     63     55     42
DK/NA                    9      6      5     11      9      8      6      9
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Approve              34%    29%    38%    42%    48%    39%    43%    20%
Disapprove           61     61        54       48        45       52       49       70
DK/NA                 4     11      8      9      7      8      8     10
 

Sure, it is New Jersey, which is a very sure D state in Presidential races.  Donald Trump got 41% of the vote in New Jersey in 2016. The younger the voter, the less likely one is to support President Trump... the only demographic groups for which President Trump isn't under water is white men and whites without college degrees.

New Jersey of course is NOT a microcosm of America, but if the pattern of many people who voted for him in 2016 disapproving of the President that they voted for, then Election Night 2020 could be a rude awakening for the GOP -- perhaps as rude as Election Night 2008. Four percent of the electorate peeling away from the GOP by 2020 means that the Republican nominee (almost certainly an incumbent) gets 42% of the vote.

pbrower, Trump also has negative favorables in AZ.

There was just a new poll yesterday.

39-49

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/8fe0874f-3ee1-4423-9f10-fe49d8a11495/AZ_Statewide_BorderWall_Toplines_1_29_17.pdf

This is more or less job approval. His EO's or tariff proposal are both heavily underwater, and there's more Republicans than Dems polled. That should scare Flake.

I found the poll at KPNX-TV (NBC-12, Phoenix) :

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.12news.com/news/politics/arizona-voters-disapprove-of-trump-performance-new-poll-shows/394516763

Context  on specific policies suggests approval, and media may not use the words "favorability" and "approval" as we do. "Favorabilty" is expectation; "approval" is about results.  

In any event, this surely suggests that President Trump is having a very bad time in a state that he really must win in 2020 if he is to be re-elected.



Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

[pbrower2a]

SurveyMonkey
Jan 26 – Jan 30
4,444 Adults

48% Approve   50% Disapprove

Among RV only, it's 49-50 disapprove.

Correction made and noted.

CA (SurveyUSA, 800 adults polled yesterday):

34% approve
52% disapprove

Do you support? Or do you oppose? ... a new policy that prevents persons from 7 nations from entering the United States? Or, do you not know enough to say?

36-46 oppose

Should California withdraw from the United States and become an entirely new nation? Or should California remain part of the United States?

18-68 oppose

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bd38a6c0-bce1-4e2e-b7e7-9f6626d8bc6a

Map adjusted above.   

The 18% of Californians who would like to secede from America and go off on their own is alarming. There was little known sentiment for such before Donald Trump was elected President. To be sure, Barack Obama was a great match for California and Donald Trump is a horrible match.

California went (rounding up) 62-32 for Hillary Clinton. I see no significant difference between the positive vote for Trump and his approval rating. The "Muslim ban" does not yet hurt Donald Trump.  I'm not saying that it won't.    

[pbrower2a]

So, most people who disapprove of Trump already want to impeach him?  That's insane.

That's a... pretty big jump.

President Pence seems more and more likely every day.

25th or straight up impeachment? I do think when impeachment nears 45% the GOP will start fleeing. But I don't anticipate impeachment or 25th until past the 2018 midterms because the GOP is far more vulnerable in 2020 in the Senate.  

Nah. Weren't Bush's over 50%? Dems had the Senate and they never tried

The VP who would have succeeded Dubya was also seen as culpable. A double-impeachment after January 2007 would have gotten America Nancy Pelosi as President, which would have made things very tricky.   

[pbrower2a]

New Presidents usually try to do things to reach out to those who voted 'wrong', trying to ensure them that those who voted 'wrong' will not have cause to distrust the new President or that the President will solve the problems that people not voting for him still want solved. Donald Trump has faulted them instead for not falling in line. The 46% who voted for him is his maximum of possible support.  President Trump may satisfy GOP core support, but he does so while alienating just about everyone else. Contrast Barack Obama, who left no doubt that he wanted to solve the economic problems of Republicans, too, when the economy looked as if it were in a reprise of the economic meltdown eerily similar to that of 1929-1933.   

The executive orders that a Federal court overturns quickly on Constitutional grounds or for violating statute demonstrate a contempt for precedent contrary to the norm of nearly 230 years of American government, and perhaps even more if one goes back to Colonial times.

People who voted against him in 2016 are beginning to dislike him even more. But such people have only one vote.  That is the hope for Republicans. It is a huge gamble; Democrats need only win a few more thousand votes in the right places either by winning new, probably  younger non-voters of 2016, attrition of Trump voters of 2016 due to death or infirmity,  better campaigning, or turning some voters for President (and likely other offices) from Trump. 

[pbrower2a]

So what is impeachable?

1. Any deed generally recognized as criminal in nature as a felony offense, including but not limited to murder, rape, theft, perjury, filing a false tax return, violation of human rights, obstruction of justice,  or participation in a criminal enterprise.

2. Violations of international law, including war crimes of any kind or unilateral abrogation of treaties.

3. Failure to perform the minimal deeds of the President, exercise of powers explicitly denied to
 the President, or performing deeds incompatible with serving as President.

4. Misrepresentation of eligibility to be President.


My suggestions.

[pbrower2a]

Interestingly, Trump's approval rating on the economy is running about 13 points ahead of his overall approval rating.

It's still the Obama economy, one in which his stewardship still pays off in good results. President Trump has yet to call Americans to make great sacrifices on behalf of special interests as those special interests want.

[pbrower2a]

The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.

Subsample error and all, but yeah. If he's bleeding support in the Midwest, he's putting a fair number of GOP house members in danger.

I'm not sure if he's really bleeding support.  Or rather, while whatever post-election "bounce" he might have gotten has faded, I'm not sure if he's doing any worse now than he was on election day.  The Ohio exit poll, for example had his favorability #s in the state at:

favorable 41%
unfavorable 57%

Yet he won the state convincingly.  He was underwater on favorability almost everywhere, but still won.  Will the same hold on job approval though?  I'm not sure.

That's an interesting point. His job approval has, thus far, usually exceeded his favorability numbers. However, that could just be reg GOP voters saying "we like you doing X, but you're still an ass." Weird times.

On a related note, one theory I heard is that, because a good number of people assumed Hillary would win (2-3% of voters), they went with their GOP rep/senator to provide a check on her. Now, with Trump in there, I could see something similar happening in reverse, with people voting Dem just to keep him in check, not because they like the Dems... add that to the agitated Dem base... I can see a lot of seats moving in weird directions much faster than anticipated or in line with priors.

A poll of the Midwest soon after the election showed him with an overall edge in favorability in the Midwest.

[pbrower2a]

The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.

Subsample error and all, but yeah. If he's bleeding support in the Midwest, he's putting a fair number of GOP house members in danger.

I'm not sure if he's really bleeding support.  Or rather, while whatever post-election "bounce" he might have gotten has faded, I'm not sure if he's doing any worse now than he was on election day.  The Ohio exit poll, for example had his favorability #s in the state at:

favorable 41%
unfavorable 57%

Yet he won the state convincingly.  He was underwater on favorability almost everywhere, but still won.  Will the same hold on job approval though?  I'm not sure.

I'd like to know the source of this favorability rating. I would love to put it on the map because the state is Ohio, usually a slightly-R swing state. 

Ohioans must have found themselves getting something very different from what Donald Trump offered. 

Ohio votes heavily on bread-and-butter issues. Donald Trump has first addressed entry to the US by Muslims (a non-issue) and his proposed Border Wall (and few states are farther from the Mexican border than Ohio). The Border Wall will not create jobs in Ohio.

Add to this, Ohio is traditionally a Clean Government state. The Buckeye State shows little tolerance for corruption and scandal. Or is it a dictatorial President with a reactionary agenda?

   

[pbrower2a]

The poll was an electoral exit poll.

I'm guessing that Ohioans voted for Donald Trump despite low expectations.

[pbrower2a]

Under-performance of low expectations.

Three things to say about a parliamentary system:

1. Only persons who have political experience would go to the highest offices. Thus no Donald Trump. Before you say "What about Dwight Eisenhower?" -- he would be an obvious Member of Parliament.

2. Someone so awful as Donald Trump would be deposed in a vote of no confidence.

3. The potential for pointless rule by decree -- and nobody who has used the Executive Order so frequently, pointlessly, and ineptly as Donald Trump -- would be very low.

[pbrower2a]

Let's not forget that there is "disapproval" and "strong disapproval". 50% disapproval with 15% 'strong disapproval' is very different from 50% disapproval with 45% 'strong disapproval'. The semantics may not be obvious, but people with 'strong disapproval' are more likely to badger elected officials of the party of the President that they despise. Disliking the agenda is one thing; seeing the President as a would-be dictator who will take away guns or the right to contraception is very different. 

The incumbents in the same Party with the President widely and strongly disapproved get into the no-win situation in which they must either run on their records of support for the Party and the President or run from their records -- and lose.

Gerrymandering has well served Republicans when the electorate was polarized and easily defined on demographic realities. Republicans have created multitudes of R+5 or so districts, and in those politicians suitable for R+30 districts can get elected. But create  a situation in which the Democrats can pick off R+5 districts in which the Republican is suited for representing an R+30 district, and Republicans can lose -- big. 

Do I see this yet? I see only portents.

From PPP:

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Republicans own this mess, and they will need miracles to get out of it. The 45/42 Democratic lead on the generic ballot will not be enough to allow them to win the House; at that they would pick off a few seats here and there. But give the Democrats a 54/46 split of the national vote for Congress and the Democrats get a House majority.

[pbrower2a]

2/4/2017:
Disapproval 53%
Approval 42%

Gallup.

Fun fact... Ronald Reagan had a 42% approval rating, or worse, between July and October 1982.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1982

Nooo no no, see, Trump is different. Normal rules don't apply, all GOP midterms will be like 2002, etc etc.

Irony may be intended.

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Many Americans still thought Ronald Reagan 'scary' in 1982. In 2018? We have yet to see how Americans will see President Trump... It could get really ugly. If Democrats can get the younger voters out, then even "R+5" Congressional districts can be vulnerable.