The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Devastating.

People are now less willing to admit that the voted for President Trump, a sign that people tend to forget their poor decisions on political issues.  Biden, Sanders, and Warren all crush the President in voting preferences in 2020; Franken and Booker do well. Trump loses to a movie star of action pictures... a black man with no political experience. (Of course, someone has already shown that being black is not an absolute bar to being President).

By 8%, people now would rather that Hillary Clinton were President. Obama 'edges' him out 55-37, with only 6% unsure.

People want the President to resign  if it can be shown that he or his staff got political aid in the 2016 election. A majority of Americans do not think the Russian connection is fake news. A near-majority of Americans consider the firing of James Comey inapt even if they didn't like him. 

Damage goes beyond the Presidency.  Congress as a whole has a 15% approval rating, Senator Mitch McConnell has a 21% approval rating, and Paul Ryan has a 25% approval rating.  Some things that should trouble Republicans; 55% of voters are very excited about voting in 2018  and 18% are 'somewhat excited. Democrats have an 11%  edge in the general ballot for Congress, which would translate into a Democratic majority in the House, at the least.

A plurality wants the President impeached.

[pbrower2a]

Support for any politician generally has some floor of partisan loyalty and ideological blindness. Accepting that approval and disapproval are mirror images around 50% (maybe just the high 40s except at election time), I;m guessing that one can more easily go from 49% approval to 44% approval than from 39% approval to 34% approval. Politicians who got wiped out in re-election bids  often have solid support at the mid-thirties, as with Blanche Lincoln and Tom Corbett.  That's obviously not enough.

 

[pbrower2a]

Richard Nixon's lowest all-time Gallup approval rating was 24% in the summer of 1974, shortly before his resignation. George W. Bush had a similar all-time low in 2008.

But Nixon and Bush were amazing presidents compared to Trump. Different leagues really. Trump is by far the most deplorable leader of a western democratic country post WWII. It's not close.

Why?

To be worse one would have to be one of the Commies who transformed incipient democracies into tyrannies, like Bierut, Gottwald, or Rakosi.

[pbrower2a]

Politico/Morning Consult

42% Approve
50% Disapprove

Source

These are the worst numbers Trump has had in what has typically been his best poll. Also this poll is only post Comey firing, as it was taken before the events of Monday and Tuesday.

crosstabs:

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -6
Northeast: -14
South: +/-0
West: -20

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +2
blacks: -62
Hispanics: -16

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -8
$50-100k: -2
over $100k: -15

11% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  10% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

Anything that was within 10% from Hillary Clinton would go for her at this level of non-support for Donald Trump... even

TEXAS

[pbrower2a]

Two states, near neighbors in the alphabet, that is:

Brutal numbers for Trump in Utah:

17% Strongly Approve
28% Somewhat Approve
13% Somewhat Disapprove
41% Strongly Disapprove

45% Total Approve
55% Total Disapprove

Dan Jones & Associates

WaPo-GMU poll of registered voters in Virginia:

36% Approve
60% Disapprove

Donald Trump has been an incredibly-poor match for Virginia... mid-30s? He's going to make Goldwater's results in Virginia in 1964 look good by contrast.

Can you imagine an incumbent Republican President being vulnerable in Utah? Well, Trump is hardly an example of Mormon values. Mormons take family values and, clean government seriously. 

Virginia may be going strong D fast even without Trump, but not that fast.
 
Favorability:

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.   


Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures. 


Approval:

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40% 
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation