The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Interesting that Americans say their 3 most important issues are:

* the economy
* healthcare
* terrorism

And on these 3 issues, Trump has the following approvals:

* the economy (52-37)
* healthcare (47-43)
* terrorism (50-38)

Yet, overall he has a 46-50 approval.

1. It's still the Obama economy. The stewardship will change.

2. Repeal and replace... with what? Health savings accounts? Basically with those one ends up pre-paying for medical care near the end of life instead of enjoying life in the here-and-now. That's a raw deal.

3. There hasn't been a terrorist attack yet. President Obama has put the fear of the US Armed Forces in them/ I wonder how long that will last.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Virginia:

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https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2430

Virginia is not in an anti-government mood:

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But it is anti-Trump.

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.


[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Donald Trump can be so disliked as President that by November 2018 Americans vote in a Democratic majority in the House.

[pbrower2a]

If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

Only 9 more points to go!

On a serious note, I think people are severely underestimating the likelihood of him hitting the 20's. If a recession hits, his one trump card is gone. I also think people are OVERestimating how much nonsense/incompetence the public can tolerate. Personally, I think these weekly crises will wear on the public quicker than most think

It is still the Obama economy. Foreign policy has yet to shift fully away from the Obama universe. President Trump and the GOP own any economic meltdown.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup:
38/56

Damn

Damn

Get used to it. First impressions stick.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup:
38/56

Damn

Damn

Get used to it. First impressions stick.

I hope you're right. I am the eternal doubting Thomas here but hopefully.

I would prefer that he change his ways and stop the damage so that we have a political system worth keeping intact. Maybe we will have a Constitutional Convention and adopt a near-translation of the German Constitution, a constitution with far more protections against dictatorship and despotism than ours. Or perhaps we could have a Westminster-style parliament.

[pbrower2a]

If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

Only 9 more points to go!

On a serious note, I think people are severely underestimating the likelihood of him hitting the 20's. If a recession hits, his one trump card is gone. I also think people are OVERestimating how much nonsense/incompetence the public can tolerate. Personally, I think these weekly crises will wear on the public quicker than most think

It is still the Obama economy. Foreign policy has yet to shift fully away from the Obama universe. President Trump and the GOP own any economic meltdown.

Usually it takes 6-9 months for a President in his first year to completely own the economy.

True. It took almost three years for the Iranian hostage situation, which likely killed any chance of Jimmy Carter being re-elected, to come into being.

Six months was the time it took for the Coolidge economy (even if it was doomed before Hoover was inaugurated) to start a three-year implosion. The Obama economy does not have a bubble that makes most profit-seeking to become a Ponzi scheme -- yet.

As my other posts suggest, I expect Donald Trump to be an awful President, someone who blunders into disasters and panics when they happen, offering the wrong solutions and make things even worse, both for his ideology and for his personality. Sordid as his ideology must seem to liberals, his complete lack of probity is even more dangerous.   

[pbrower2a]

This is old (spring 2016), but it may be relevant to how the rest of the world sees President Trump:

 

[pbrower2a]

TEXAS



President Trump won Texas by about 9% in November, which was the weakest win by any Republican nominee for President in Texas  in twenty years.

It's positive approval, and if this is where Donald Trump (no poll of Texas is precise) is three years from now, then he wins Texas -- barely. But 'barely winning Texas' indicates that he would be losing states that Republican nominees for president just don't lose anymore. 

We need remember that Texas creates huge problems for pollsters because of its size, diversity, and regional difference. Texas straddles regions and is not a region in itself; it does not have a good analogue elsewhere in the United States. 

ARKANSAS (Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College):

60% Approve
35% Disapprove

Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R):

53% Approve
30% Disapprove

Do you support or oppose President Trump’s travel ban?

61% Support the Trump travel ban
34% Oppose the Trump travel ban

http://talkbusiness.net/2017/02/trump-popularity-unchanged-with-arkansas-voters-hutchinson-job-approval-solid

Favorability:

...If this sort of polling holds up into 2020, then people watching the Presidential election will have a 38-point mystery lasting long into the evening. But Texas would be the difference between about 400 electoral votes for the Democratic nominee and about 440.

Trump should do extremely well in the Mountain South -- that's certain at this point.

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[pbrower2a]

Trump crashed bigly in today's Rasmussen poll:

Approve: 51% (-4)
Disapprove: 49% (+4)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_feb20

Must be the credibility gap.

[pbrower2a]

The University of Texas poll is god awful. Doesn't mean the numbers are wrong necessarily, but still.

Texas is simply a tough state to poll.

The state straddles regions, it is ethnically diverse, it has economics from cotton to semiconductors, and it contains areas with of obvious analogues outside of Texas.

[pbrower2a]

http://www.yourerie.com/news/local-news/mercyhurst-poll-trumps-approval-rating-in-erie-county-at-41-percent/660441453

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Trump won Erie County, PA 48%-46%. Obama won the County in 2012 by 57%-41%.

In view of recent polls of Iowa and Michigan, I would expect President Trump to be underwater statewide in Pennsylvania.  Iowa was about R+2 against the Gallup poll. Erie County reflects that Donald Trump was able to address the economic misery of the Rust Belt without offering a tangible solution.  Now he needs solutions, and his purported solutions are all religious bigotry and special-interest favors that will do more harm than good.

I expect to see approval polls of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin fairly soon because those states were polled frequently in 2009 and 2013, often by Quinnipiac.

Show me polling for those three states and I will give you the earliest projection of the 2020 Presidential election.

...Handling the economy? It's still the Obama economy.

[pbrower2a]

Virginia: Roanoke Poll 

Approve 32%
Disapprove 50%

Methinks the GOP will probably lose the Governor's race again...

...and a handful of House seats. That is the most effective way to stop the Trump agenda should voters get sick of the President. 
....................

I hope to see some polls of states that have yet to be polled since the election. Virginia seems to be careening away from the GOP much as West Virginia careened away from the Democrats around 2000.

[pbrower2a]

How does one win national elections when 49% of the country "disapproves strongly" of your president?

Cause it was 49% in the right areas

Rural Michigan. Rural Wisconsin. Rural Pennsylvania.

[pbrower2a]

...and this poll is taken by a TRADE ORGANIZATION, asking only Republicans.

It's called 'damning with faint praise', much like saying that some .220 hitter occasionally gets some 'big hit'. Never mind that in the meantime he grounds out a lot and hits lots of medium-fly balls that almost always get caught. President Trump's low popularity in Florida can put an end to the political career of Governor Rick Scott and ensure that the Governor of Florida will do no special favors for the President in November 2018.

67% approval of the incumbent from his own Party indicates a political disaster in the making -- and this is before an economic meltdown, a sex scandal, a tale of bribery, bungling of a natural disaster, or a military or diplomatic debacle -- none of which have yet happened.

[pbrower2a]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-goucher-trump-poll-20170222-story.html

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Ouch! This is the zone in which military coups happen in some countries. But it is Maryland, one of the states most hostile to nationwide Republicans. 


Tennessee (MTSU):

51% Approve
32% Disapprove

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http://mtsupoll.org/2017/02/22/trumps-approval-on-the-edge-in-tennessee/
Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania, Franklin&Marshall.  Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor. 32% have President Trump at "excellent or good", 54% at poor, 13% fair.  Awful, really.

http://m.republicanherald.com/news/poll-disappointment-in-trump-casey-wolf-1.2158470

South Carolina, Winthrop University.

44% approve, 47% disapprove.

...and he gets only 77% support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. 

http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

CBS national poll. 39% approve, 51% disapprove.  I don;t show national polls on the map, but if anyone wants to guess that the President is faring better than this in Wisconsin or Ohio, go right ahead and believe it. .

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[pbrower2a]

Three years away from the start of the real campaigning of the 2020 Presidential election I can make the earliest possible prediction of its results.

Note that I make some assumptions.

First, that the 2020 election will be free and fair.  

Anything else (1) isn't interesting, (2) is a violation of over 200 years of precedent, or (3) indicates that the comparative few who own the assets and grab the income either have gained total power or have lost everything in a revolution or apocalyptic war.

Second, that American political culture does not change profoundly in the meantime.  

Ethnic divides and religious patterns remain much the same and have much the same general orientation. There is no trend toward fundamentalist religion or toward irreligion that would change voting patters. We haven't seen that since the late 1970s  and I don't expect to see that now.

Third, that the states change in their voting behavior only due to demographic change

The Hispanic and Asian populations are growing rapidly and making a bigger part of the electorate while black and white populations become lesser shares.

Fourth, approval-disapproval differentials remain much the same as they are now.

That assumes that President Trump does not endure even further losses of approval or make a miraculous recovery.  Could things go worse for him? Sure. Mass unrest. Economic meltdown. Military or diplomatic debacles. Scandals involving sex or financial turpitude.  I'm not saying that any one of those will happen, but I can't rule them out. If any of these happen, then Donald Trump might not even run for re-election, in which case all bets are off.  

Fifth, that President Trump will run for election.

He will not die, become incapacitated, resign, or be impeached whether by Congress or a military junta. Crazy as things are now I can't even rule out a military coup. To be sure, if he dislikes the Presidency he might choose not to run while expressing some noble cause for not seeking a second term, as did LBJ.

Sixth, that third parties will not greatly shape the election.

If the liberal side splits significantly, then President Trump wins. If some conservative-leaning nominee gets 10% or more of the vote, then Trump loses 'bigly'.

>>>>I have enough approval and favorability ratings of states to create a skeleton of a likely 2020 Presidential election. There are states (Colorado, Georgia, Ohio, and Wisconsin) for which I have nothing so far, for which I would like some data.

So add 6% to the most recent number for approval or favorability (where I had both favorability and approval, they were basically the same -- I prefer approval) to get the likely share of the vote in any state in the upcoming election. Nate Silver has a model for elected (not appointed) Governors and Senators that suggests that they normally lose support once they start legislating or governing because they can't please everyone who voted for them, but that they typically gain about 6% of the vote from an approval rating at the beginning of a campaign season by campaigning. That's the 'average' Governor or Senator running against the 'average' challenger. It worked well with Obama, whose approval ratings were in the mid 40s early in 2016, and he barely got re-elected by the popular vote. If it applies to Senators and Governors, then why not to the President?

So here are the data. I normed some unflattering polls for Trump in Florida and North Carolina to the national average , but other than that I simply took the latest numbers. Here is the raw data:

 NY - 31 MA - 25  NJ - 36 AZ - 39 FL - 34 (raise to 40) NC- 36 (raise to 40) MI-40 WV - 58 CA -34 NH - 43 VA - 38 IA - 42 AR - 60 TX - 46 VA -32 TN - 51 MD -29 PA - 32 SC - 44

Add 6 to the approval rating, and you get the following map:

      

white -- 49-51% for Trump (a virtual tie)

Trump wins:

60% or more
55-59.9%
51.0-54.9%

Trump loses, getting :

40% or less
40-44.9%
45-48.9%

[pbrower2a]

We can do some fill-ins. It's obvious that President Trump will have no chance in Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, New Mexico, Washington, Oregon, or Hawaii.  On the other side, I can expect Trump to be re-elected by big margins in states that Obama lost big twice (Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Nebraska (except for NE-02), Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Because much of the vote in Missouri is in the Ozarks and has much in common in culture with West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and northern Arkansas, I expect Trump to win Missouri. Obama winning Indiana in 2008 was something of a freak and likely unrepeatable.  Montana might vote for a Democrat for Governor or for a Senate seat, and was close for Obama in 2008, but it wasn't in 2012.

I expect Minnesota to be Minnesota, a fairly liberal state, and Wisconsin to move with Iowa back to the D column. Georgia was close in 2008 and 2016, so I'm not guessing there. South Carolina makes Georgia intriguing. Ohio? I'm saying nothing until I see a poll of Ohio. The sorts of people who swung Ohio from D to R in 2016 might behave much as such voters look likely to do in Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  

[pbrower2a]

We can do some fill-ins. It's obvious that President Trump will have no chance in Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, New Mexico, Washington, Oregon, or Hawaii.  On the other side, I can expect Trump to be re-elected by big margins in states that Obama lost big twice (Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska (except for NE-02), Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Because much of the vote in Missouri is in the Ozarks and has much in common in culture with West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and northern Arkansas, I expect Trump to win Missouri. Obama winning Indiana in 2008 was something of a freak and likely unrepeatable.  Montana might vote for a Democrat for Governor or for a Senate seat, and was close for Obama in 2008, but it wasn't in 2012.

I expect Minnesota to be Minnesota, a fairly liberal state, and Wisconsin to move with Iowa back to the D column. Georgia was close in 2008 and 2016, so I'm not guessing there. South Carolina makes Georgia intriguing. Ohio? I'm saying nothing until I see a poll of Ohio. The sorts of people who swung Ohio from D to R in 2016 might behave much as such voters look likely to do in Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.   

Perhaps a model that combines polling from several states to quantify where a state might stand? For example, Ohio + Minnesota might approximate where Wisconsin really stands.

Another is to see the Presidential election of 2016 as an anomaly with Obama 2012  with such states as  Arizona, North Carolina, Tennessee (maybe), and Texas drifting slightly D.

Watch gubernatorial elections in 2018.

[pbrower2a]

I think that the deep south will have roughly even approvals, with MS or AL having the highest of that set of states and Georgia the lowest

You are probably right. I show South Carolina as negative, and I would expect much the same in Georgia.

[pbrower2a]

At this point I would project a minimum of 321 electoral votes for the average Democratic nominee for President in the re-election bid of Donald Trump  based on giving anything in any shade of red, anything that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 except New Hampshire and ME-02, and Wisconsin, which I would expect to be close to Iowa. That's if I concede New Hampshire, ME-02, and Ohio, which is rather generous to President Trump with the data that I have.

That assumes that nothing really changes in three years and the usual dynamics of a Preisdential campaign apply from then.   

[pbrower2a]

Granted, it's only been about a month....but say his approval is the same or worse throughout the 2020 election.

Has there ever been an incumbent president with similar approval ratings who won reelection?

My assumption for this model is that his approval ratings stabilize around 40% and stay there. That is a cautious assumption, one that paradoxically might allow him to get a higher percentage of the total vote in 2020 and still lose.  Remember that he got about the same percentage of the total vote as Dukakis got in 1988 and that McCain got in 2008.

I can hardly expect him to do better than 40% or so over time. He has yet to fully enact an economic agenda that requires great reductions in living standards by most people on behalf of economic elites for benefits that won't appear for most people for at least twenty years... maybe, and if those benefits never appear, that's just too bad. He has yet to face an economic tailspin, and in view of the administrative chaos that we have all seen so far, I can't expect him to perform the sort of economic stewardship that either mitigates the harm or sets the economy on a new and better course. In view of the stormy relationship between him and both the intelligence services and the Armed Forces, I hardly expect any international crisis to go well while he is President -- and such crises are more likely to happen when the President shoots his mouth off about a major religion and about illegal immigrants who have been doing little harm.

So what will the electoral map look like if he has an approval rating around 30%? He could put together a scenario in which one gets the Obama states and the Carter states together... and then some.



He would not have to lose much to lose Texas. My model has Trump winning 52% of the popular vote in Texas  

[pbrower2a]

New York State, Siena. The state in which Donald Trump is best known doesn't like how he is doing. His favorability has slipped to 36% for Siena (but that is one category higher than the poll most recently been using), but it is still 36-59, 17% underwater. More significantly,
 

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See more at: https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/voters-give-cuomo-his-best-favorability-job-performance-ratings-in-more-tha#sthash.rlflo57P.dpuf  

Don't be surprised if some new state polls come in tomorrow and Wednesday.

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.



Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[pbrower2a]

On the economy: it is still the Obama economy, or the Federal Reserve Bank really manages it.

President Trump has yet to force economic reforms likely to inflict pain on the masses so that the super-rich can get even more -- like a national "Right-to-Work" (for much less, as union officials call it), abolition of the minimum wage laws, tax shifts, and destruction of the welfare system.  He has yet to succeed at forming an economic bubble analogous to the real estate mess of fifteen years ago.

We can pay more attention to approval than to favorability. Approval generally means recognition of the merits or demerits of official performance. It is possible to like someone who is hurting one, as in certain stages of an abusive relationship.  But that usually sours fast.

What is telling? New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut* residents likely know Donald Trump the person far better than any other Americans. If his approval rating in New York state is 29%,  and this is significantly lower than is normal for Republican Presidents in New York, then we can only imagine what direction his support will take in such states as Georgia*, Minnesota*, Ohio*, and Wisconsin* and will take over time. 

*states for which I have no polling data.

Can anyone come up with polling data for President Trump in New Jersey and New York from the first term of President George W. Bush?