pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 26,854
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« on: August 23, 2016, 07:15:58 PM » |
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In the absence of polls, I cautiously suggest "likely D", Clinton of course winning.
Minnesota swings rather little; it goes about 50% for a weak Democratic nominee and about 58% for a very strong one. Look at how it did with Reagan and with Obama. A Democratic nominee would have to be just incredibly bad (McGovern in 1972, Mondale without the Favorite Son effect) to lose the state.
It hasn't gone R+ for any Republican since the 1950s... the Democrat would have to win about 60% of the popular vote while winning 58% of the popular vote in Minnesota.
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Poll
