GA - Atlanta Journal Constitution: Clinton +4 / Clinton +3 (w/ Third Parties)

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of what the map will look like if Hillary Clinton is barely winning Georgia.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

I can't say who wins Utah after Donald Trump has bungled the usual Republican support -- a write-in campaign for Mitt Romney?

Texas goes D before any of the states of the arc of states (LA, AR, TN, KY, WV) that Bill Clinton won twice that Obama got clobbered in twice. If educated white suburbanites in Greater Atlanta are going to Clinton in Texas, they are doing so in Texas, too. But I can't assure anyone that Republicans will win in the High Plains states.

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of what the map will look like if Hillary Clinton is barely winning Georgia.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

I can't say who wins Utah after Donald Trump has bungled the usual Republican support -- a write-in campaign for Mitt Romney?

Texas goes D before any of the states of the arc of states (LA, AR, TN, KY, WV) that Bill Clinton won twice that Obama got clobbered in twice. If educated white suburbanites in Greater Atlanta are going to Clinton in Texas, they are doing so in Texas, too. But I can't assure anyone that Republicans will win in the High Plains states.

Why Idaho?

Fixed now.

[pbrower2a]

We may be seeing a Trump collapse in the polls or even an overall collapse of the Republican Party. Polls would react to this, and definitely not lead. 

Can Republicans recover? Maybe -- just maybe. But that itself suggests a prediction. Polls indicate how people would vote if the election were to be held today. Of course we do not have snap elections.

I can imagine scenarios in which the Republicans could win the Presidency in a landslide -- but such would suggest that the political cultures that underpin the Blue (Atlas Red) Firewall that reflects political cultures in about twenty states themselves are eroding. An alternative is that the Republicans would have a nominee stronger than the ones that they have had since Reagan or that the Democrats have elected an unusually-weak nominee.