pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 26,923
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« on: July 29, 2016, 01:03:06 PM » |
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There is no typical Presidential election.
It is possible to bunch them by scale of victory, so elections of 1972 and 1984 are extremely similar , and those two have an obvious parallel (if an inversion of Party) in 1936.
When the victor is the same in two adjacent elections the maps could be very similar -- as 2012/2008; 2004/2000; 1996/1992; and of course 1956/1952.
One election has a near-mean in percentages of popular and electoral votes -- 2012. But elections are otherwise close or they diverge as several levels of landslide. They do not bunch around 62% of of the electoral vote as 2012 was; they clearly diverge, getting much closer or getting farther away from closeness.
The 2012 election was a freak even if it got a mean-like result. As it is I can predict three possibilities for 2016: a close election with either Trump or Clinton winning or a blowout victory for Clinton.
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