IN-NBC/WSJ-Marist: All Republicans ahead of Clinton

[pbrower2a]

Winning Indiana by 7 means that Trump or Cruz will be losing the US as a whole by 5-6%. Indiana really does swing in elections; Republicans can win it in normal years by anything from about 3% to about 20%. (Going for Obama in 2008 was something of a fluke; the RV industry, whose workers are comparatively conservative, turned against Republicans when their market was hit by a combination of a credit crunch, sky-high gas prices, and as general downturn in the economy... and Obama campaigned in Indiana as if he needed the state). Obama lost the state in 2012 by about 10% because the economic triple-whammy was no longer in effect (he would have lost the state by about 20% had even one of the components of the triple-whammy were in effect in 2012) and because he could not campaign in Indiana. 

On the other side, if the Democratic nominee is winning Rhode Island (which is about as D as Indiana is R) by 7%, then the Democratic nominee is losing by about 5# nationwide.

Indiana does swing, but it almost always remains just out of reach of a Democratic nominee.

Or even more simply, Indiana is about 8% more Republican than Ohio, and if the Republican isn't winning Indiana by a double-digit margin, then he is also losing Ohio.