Looks about right. I think she ends up winning Ike style against Trump and by somewhere between Obama 2008 and Obama 2012 against Cruz.
If Trump somehow wins in the end, will people ever take those early general election polls seriously?
People should have learned by now never to take early general election polls seriously.
Isn't it hilarious how every Democrat says "These Kasich vs. Clinton numbers are junk because <insert mental gymnastics here>" but is convinced that the Trump vs. Clinton numbers MUST be right. I think it has to do with the fact that they really hate Trump - they want him to get humiliated so badly that they aren't able to distinguish reality from wishful thinking anymore. I mean, I'm not willing to rule out a Clinton landslide (say, 380 EV or so) either if Trump is the nominee, but it's very unlikely to happen. Most Republicans will come home for him in the end and assuming he's no Democratic plant, his worst case scenario is the 2012 map - NC - AZ.
I am a Democrat, and I consider Donald Trump to be the most obnoxious candidate for President who has had a chance to win any electoral votes since George Wallace in 1968. Dubya had his faults, but he was likable enough even if he was utterly shallow. Those Kasich-Clinton numbers mean something, namely that a reasonable Republican who says nothing stupid would win in 2016. That's what happens after eight years of one President: people want something very different.
Donald Trump scares me for his belligerency. Every President can be expected to do something aggressive on occasion. But this said, Donald Trump seems ready to beat someone up at every turn. He has said bigoted things and not backed down from them when told of the human consequences.
After eight years of one President, people want something different in style, and after eight years of a cautious President who respects precedent and legal nicety more than emotion and popular sentiment, who prefers nuance to bellicose confrontation, Donald Trump offers much the opposite. When such leads from one good President to another good President with largely a change of style, as from Eisenhower to Kennedy, we are fine. Obama to Trump would be like Eisenhower to... I doubt that you want to see what I think.
Yes, the projections of Kasich winning over both Clinton and Sanders says something: that in 2020 the incumbent Democrat who does defeat Donald Trump will almost certainly face a challenger much more competent than Donald Trump. Failure as President means defeat. Maybe the Republicans have their equivalent of Bill Clinton who can defeat a President who is basically more of the same that we will still associate with Barack Obama.
Sometimes, polling maps simply show elections that simply do not happen. We saw this with a bunch of matchups that I no longer show. Rubio? Walker? Bush? Huckabee? Carson? Fiorina? Do you care now?
I showed much the same in 2012. Example: Sarah Palin was going to lose about 440-100 in the Electoral College.
Four years from now the political climate can go from this:
Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
White -- tie or someone leading with less than 40%.
to something like this:
Hillary Clinton vs.
John Kasich 30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
White -- tie or someone leading with less than 40%.
Could Hillary Clinton be as ineffective at meeting the political realities of 2017-2020 as Jimmy Carter between 1977 and 1980? Maybe. Just maybe.
