MO-Docking Institute of Public Affairs: GOP candidates mostly ahead

[pbrower2a]

When someone is ahead with less than 45% of the Decided, then even a 5% difference matters little. Whoever has the lower ceiling loses.

There were polls in North Dakota and South Dakota in 2008 that showed Senator Obama up 45-42, and many people made much of those. He ended up losing those two states by about 8%. But he did get his 45% in those two states!

But strange things were happening in 2008, you say? Strange things are happening this time, too.

You have seen my maps, and they basically show that someone up 49-42 (a convincing and nearly-insurmountable lead) and someone up 42-38 (a lead at the margin of error but not insurmountable) are in the same category. That is a bug that I might need to fix.  Maybe I yellow leads involving a top number under 45 to orange for a Democrat or green for a Republican.

[pbrower2a]

I figured that anywhere that touches cultural Appalachia would be voting like OK within 15 years, but this is all happening very fast.  Would not be surprised at all if WV goes >70% for Trump.

True, though it is interesting that Trump polls weaker than Cruz/Rubio in head-to-head matchups here considering how pro-Trump much of Appalachia is.  Perhaps it's also a factor of suburban/exurban Missouri completely shifting away from the Democrats altogether.

The Ozarks and Appalachia are similar in culture and economics as well as scenery (having been in southern Missouri and southern West Virginia I can hardly tell one from the other in scenery). Similarities in politics can be expected to follow.