How does Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico trend GOP? What will it take to get them to appeal to the GOP again in the long term? These three states were 'red' back in the 1980s. Would the GOP changing their policies to Libertarian help their cause?
1. Cory Gardner barely won in 2014 running against a weak Democrat, Mark Udall.
2. People are moving to CO and NV in high numbers, especially from blue states. They import their liberal politics with them from their old state such as the west/east coast, which changes the demographics.
3. Should the GOP change their policies to become more of an urban/suburb educated party and 'steal' votes away from the Democratic party, but still be fiscally conservative and socially moderate?
1. Gardner loses in 2020.
2. They are moving from California for cheaper real estate and lower taxes. Even if they are conservatives they bring their kids already drifting D with them. Add to this, the Hispanic populations tend to bring a communitarian culture with them. Hispanics look out for each other as white Anglos closer to the questionable ethos of every-man-for-himself. Figure that there is much assimilation between Hispanics and Anglo whites, and assimilation is toward the Hispanic norm in political culture.
3. Easily said, and not easily done. The level of formal education was a strong proxy for Republican voting, but it is now a strong proxy for Democratic voting. Republicans adopted the Southern Strategy of appealing to the least-educated of white voters and ended up alienating the most-educated of voters whatever their origin. Except for not winning the Plains states and Mormon country, Obama wins look much like Eisenhower wins. Educated people are the swing voters between the 1950s and now.
Look closely at an Eisenhower win. The more middle-class a state was, the better Eisenhower did. Ike actually won three of the states normally toughest for Republican nominees for President then and now: Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Rhode Island. Not since 1924 has any Republican other than Eisenhower won all three states at once, but he won all three -- twice. Ike did not do so well in the Mountain and Deep South, where Obama did about as badly as McGovern.
Republicans need to give up on the white ignoramus vote; it no longer is large enough to win a national election. It's impossible to show contempt for liberal learning and win the respect of people who see formal education as necessary for avoiding poverty. It is worth remembering: the Asian, black, and Hispanic middle class are all well educated.