I also believe that the alleged affinity to Mexican-Americans by Cruz and Rubio because they are Hispanic is terribly overrated. Cruz and Rubio are the wrong sorts of Hispanics to appeal to Mexican-Americans anywhere. A liberal Hispanic of origins in the Dominican Republic (who would probably have about the same skin color as Barack Obama) would do well among Mexican-Americans.
Except perhaps in Texas, Mexican-Americans have become a very liberal bloc of voters. Such reflects the failure of Republicans to grasp onto the fast-growing Hispanic middle class through the anti-intellectualism and nativism that Republican pols have adapted for winning over Southern working-class white people.
I don't think Latino Americans will respond well to Rubio's plan of essentially 10 years of indentured servitude before illegal aliens can apply to become U.S citizens.
I also doubt that that will play well with the millions of working class Americans who vote Republican.
It would be fine with working-class whites, especially in the Deep and Mountain South, who think that they have nothing to lose because there is some non-white or 'un-American' underclass. The GOP has been selling ethnic privilege to poor white people while fleecing them economically. When white working-class people realize that they are being cheated, then the game is up for the Republican Party.
In any event, Mexican-Americans have never experienced the animus that blacks have experienced at the same time and place.
Looks about right.
Trump is likely not acceptable to the majority of voters, even against a trainwreck like Hillary.
Arizona has gone only once for the Democratic nominee since 1948. Republicans with a 9% lead in Arizona? That fits 2008 and 2012 fairly well.
Arizona was +9 in 2012 (Romney actually got a slightly higher share of the vote in 2012 than John McCain did in 2008) because 416,192 Arizonans are Mormons out of a population of 6,731,484 or 6.18% of the population.
Arizona may very well be a swing state in 2016. I agree it leans Republican but not by 9%
Donald Trump offends so many Mormon sensibilities that he could fail to get the usual high levels of Mormon support that all Republican presidential nominees have gotten since 1948. Without such support he could lose Arizona.
