What happens in Clinton vs. Trump?

[pbrower2a]

Clinton wins by a margin between 1988 and 2008.

Paradoxically, the elder Bush got little more of the popular vote in 1988 than Obama got in 2008.

Bush 53.37 -- Dukakis 45.65
Obama 52.86 -- McCain 45.60

But the elder Bush won 426 electoral votes, and Obama won 365.

To get 426 or more votes by adding to the Obama 2008 win, Hillary Clinton would need  to also win

MO    375
MT     378
GA     393
SD     396
AZ     406
ND     409
SC     417
TX     445

...which isn't going to happen.

Let's try adding states to 2012.

She would have to win North Carolina (347), NE-02 (348), Georgia (364), Arizona (376), Missouri (386), and the inner arc (Louisiana to West Virginia, states that Bill Clinton won twice but Obama lost by huge margins twice -- 424). If Hillary misses on one of the states of the inner arc (AR, KY, LA, TN, WV) she would have to pick up Indiana or South Carolina to get into the area of 420 electoral votes.

The American electorate is extremely polarized. Democrats are going to find poaching recent Republican voters difficult -- and Republicans are going to find poaching away recent Democratic voters difficult, except perhaps on local issues within states. Even corruption and gross incompetence seem to matter little. Demographic change and migration may matter more.     

[pbrower2a]

Hard to say as it will be dependent on how the political climate shapes up over the next year.  If the climate is similar to where its been the past month or two, with increased high profile terrorist activity and unease, Trump will successfully demagogue his way to the presidency.  If the terrorist threat is not as visceral a year from now and calmer minds prevail, Hillary will be in a better position.  It's going to be a lot closer than some imagine, however.  If Hillary and co. underestimate Trump we could have a very distressing situation on our hands. 

I think that you have it right. Partisan loyalties will still matter throughout 2016, and the crony capitalists will vote Republican because they can't imagine voting for any Democrat. Those partisan Establishment Republicans will vote for someone who promises tax cuts, weakening of labor unions, softening of environmental laws, and privatization of the public sector -- maybe wars for profit as well.

Donald Trump can succeed only in an environment in which millions are so disgruntled with politics that they would rather let a businessman run the government as if it were a business -- someone acting like a CEO.

Democrats do not have the equivalent of a "Daisy ad"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDTBnsqxZ3k

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-VzZQGWOqA