Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona:


Sanders (D): 39%
Trump (R): 36%
Other/Undecided: 25%

The poll was conducted March 7 to 11 and surveyed 701 likely Arizona voters.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2016/03/17/arizona-poll-trump-clinton-tied-in-november.html

Sanders has a slight lead against Trump, but he has yet to reach 40%. Thus I show Arizona as a tie for now for Trump vs. Sanders.  

Utah, KSL-TV (NBC-5, Salt Lake City)/Deseret News. Republicans other than Trump do OK -- and Trump does execrably.
 



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Can you imagine? Donald Trump could actually underperform Barry Goldwater (who lost almost 55-45 in 1964) in Utah.

Cruz and Kasich pose no such problem.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, North Carolina

The strongest Republican candidate for President in North Carolina is the one the party is least likely to nominate. John Kasich is the only hopeful in either party with a positive favorability among voters in the state- 36% have a good opinion of him to just 31% with a negative one. He leads Hillary Clinton 49/41 and Bernie Sanders 44/41 in hypothetical contests in the state. His lead over Clinton among independents is 59/26.

It looks like Republicans are going to nominate either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz though, and they both trail the Democratic candidates by small margins. Clinton leads Trump 44/42, and Sanders has a 48/41 advantage over him. While 81-82% of Republicans would support Cruz or Kasich over Clinton, only 73% say they would vote for Trump. He has a 31/58 favorability rating in the state, and his unpopularity is such that 15-18% of voters- including 22-25% of Republicans- say they would vote for a conservative independent candidate if he was the nominee and that was an option for them. Clinton and Sanders each lead Cruz by identical 45/42 spreads. Republicans are heading in a direction that puts North Carolina on the board for Democrats this fall, even though they have a candidate running who might be able to take it off the board.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_32216.pdf

Emerson College, Wisconsin:

Clinton (D): 47%
Trump (R): 38%

Clinton (D): 46%
Cruz (R): 45%

Sanders (D): 47%
Trump (R): 38%

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_73d4ad9247704c9488a764acae6f7767.pdf

Maine, Critical Insights

Hillary Clinton (D): 43%
Donald Trump (R): 34%

Bernie Sanders (D): 57%
Donald Trump (R): 31%

(I assume that Maine's two districts would be close to voting alike, which I would not say about the three districts of Nebraska). 



http://static.bangordailynews.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/115/files/2016/03/CI-Tracking_Spring-2016.pdf?ref=inline


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, with Sanders

See the above post. Note that the last time when Republicans lost the electoral votes of the Tarheel State in a close Presidential election was 1976, when Carter won all former Confederate states except Virginia.

Wisconsin, with Sanders.

Maine, with Sanders (but only against Trump)

Again, see above post.


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

I'd expect a poll from Marquette University Law School about Wisconsin at any time.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, North Carolina

The strongest Republican candidate for President in North Carolina is the one the party is least likely to nominate. John Kasich is the only hopeful in either party with a positive favorability among voters in the state- 36% have a good opinion of him to just 31% with a negative one. He leads Hillary Clinton 49/41 and Bernie Sanders 44/41 in hypothetical contests in the state. His lead over Clinton among independents is 59/26.

It looks like Republicans are going to nominate either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz though, and they both trail the Democratic candidates by small margins. Clinton leads Trump 44/42, and Sanders has a 48/41 advantage over him. While 81-82% of Republicans would support Cruz or Kasich over Clinton, only 73% say they would vote for Trump. He has a 31/58 favorability rating in the state, and his unpopularity is such that 15-18% of voters- including 22-25% of Republicans- say they would vote for a conservative independent candidate if he was the nominee and that was an option for them. Clinton and Sanders each lead Cruz by identical 45/42 spreads. Republicans are heading in a direction that puts North Carolina on the board for Democrats this fall, even though they have a candidate running who might be able to take it off the board.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_32216.pdf

Emerson College, Wisconsin:

Clinton (D): 47%
Trump (R): 38%

Clinton (D): 46%
Cruz (R): 45%

Sanders (D): 47%
Trump (R): 38%

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_73d4ad9247704c9488a764acae6f7767.pdf

Pennsylvania, Franklin and Marshall:

http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/295186459482343904-f-m-poll-release-march-2016-1.pdf

Clinton 46
Trump 33

Clinton 45
Cruz 35

No change to the map.


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan, SurveyUSA. Kasich makes Michigan interesting, but only so long as he is a viable candidate in theory or fact.
   
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=47c9cb86-78f1-4886-a8b3-df6ef090b5b8

Clinton 48
Romney 35

Clinton 49
Trump 38

Clinton 49
Cruz 39

Clinton 48
Ryan 38

Kasich 46
Clinton 41

Sanders 55
Trump 36

Sanders 56
Cruz 35

Sanders 47
Kasich 42


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan, Survey USA. See above.


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan, SurveyUSA. Kasich makes Michigan interesting, but only so long as he is a viable candidate in theory or fact.
   
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=47c9cb86-78f1-4886-a8b3-df6ef090b5b8

Clinton 48
Romney 35

Clinton 49
Trump 38

Clinton 49
Cruz 39

Clinton 48
Ryan 38

Kasich 46
Clinton 41

Sanders 55
Trump 36

Sanders 56
Cruz 35

Sanders 47
Kasich 42

California, USC, LA Times, Greenberg

Clinton (D): 59%
Trump (R): 28%

Clinton (D): 54%
Kasich (R): 35%


https://gqrr.app.box.com/s/k000yvcmq0flmf56jw26vkm4mm52az3g

...as if anyone had cause to believe otherwise. President Obama has 64% approval in California.


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Remember -- this thread is not intended to predict elections based upon anything other than current polls. It can't predict consequences of events. Thus, "Hillary Clinton Implodes in Scandal" would be shown in polling results and could not be predicted in polling results from four months earlier. On the other side, "Trump Linked to Foreign Gangsters" would have distinct consequences not found polls from before the disclosure.

So far, John Kasich does far better than any Republican as a potential nominee. Is that of relevance? Yes -- should the Republicans have a brokered convention that nominates a moderate. Can the Republicans do that? Trump still most likely gets the nomination. Are there any real Republican moderates? Good question.  

Are Republicans in better shape against Clinton than against Sanders? Not if Hillary Clinton changes her emphasis to address issues that Bernie Sanders has brought to the fore, which she could do without contradicting her prior campaign promises. But that would make her polls look more like the current polls involving Sanders, much to the detriment of the Republican nominee.

So what do the polls so far show? Hillary Clinton keeps enough of the Obama coalition intact that she will win solidly in November. Bernie Sanders expands the Obama coalition enough to flip some states. So far John Kasich looks as if he could swing some states on the margin in 2008 or 2012... but that depends upon him not being seen as 'just another Republican pol' in November, whether Hard Right or Establishment.  

Donald Trump is an unmitigated disaster.

[pbrower2a]

I'd expect a poll from Marquette University Law School about Wisconsin at any time.

Here it is:

Clinton 47.1, Trump 36.6
Clinton 44.2, Cruz 44.2
Kasich 48.1, Clinton 39.2

Sanders 54.1, Trump 35.0
Sanders 51.6, Cruz 39.4
Sanders 45.9, Kasich 43.7

https://t.co/eifW2aSx7L

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin: Marquette University Law School

Clinton 47.1, Trump 36.6
Clinton 44.2, Cruz 44.2
Kasich 48.1, Clinton 39.2

https://t.co/eifW2aSx7L

Hillary Clinton has her work cut out in Wisconsin. Credibility?


-----------------


Quinnipiac, New York State:

New York remains solidly blue as either Clinton or Sanders top any Republican in the head-to-head general election matchups, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds, with some margins approaching 2-1. November matchups show:

    Clinton beating Trump 53 - 33 percent;
    Clinton over Cruz 53 - 32 percent;
    Clinton edging Kasich 46 - 41 percent[/quote]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2337

...The Democrat really needs to win New York State by a margin of about 60-40 to have a real chance of winning nationwide, at least as shown in elections since 2000. That is a huge number of undecided voters. The difference between winning and losing New York State is that of getting about 95-100 and 125-130 electoral votes. California goes D before New York does.

MISSOURI (Trump vs. Clinton, only)

Clinton and Trump win this state in the primary, likely sealing out Sanders, Cruz, and Kasich for the nomination.

Hillary Clinton (D): 42%
Donald Trump (R): 40%

Clinton favorability: 38/57 (-19)
Trump favorability: 28/63 (-35)

The same poll finds Senator Roy Blunt leading his Democratic challenger by 14 points, so I wouldn't write it off as "junk".


http://www.utu.org/worksite/PDFs/DFMresearch/MO_Statewide_March_2016_FINAL.pdf

42-40 is not a decisive lead. If the Democrat gets only 42% of the vote in November, then Trump is doing better than Romney did. But 8 away from 50% is decidedly better than 10% away.






Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin, Marquette Law School poll. Kasich is close, but Sanders destroys Trump and Cruz. Is Wisconsin a far better match for Sanders than for Clinton? The state looks extremely polarized.

Sanders 54.1, Trump 35.0
Sanders 51.6, Cruz 39.4
Sanders 45.9, Kasich 43.7

https://t.co/eifW2aSx7L

------------------

Quinnipiac, New York

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It could easily go moot here, as the primaries in New York State likely seal nominations for Clinton and Trump.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2337

Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

it's beautiful

You just threw away a huge amount of data.

I do not make my maps for esthetic appeal.

[pbrower2a]

When do we get to see polls of:

Iowa (nothing since the caucuses)
Louisiana (a Democrat won the Governorship!)
Minnesota (nothing yet -- really!)
Nebraska (check those Congressional districts!)
Nevada (old poll)

[pbrower2a]

http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2016/03/31/fox-business-network-poll-sanders-tops-clinton-by-five-in-wisconsin.html

Much information on Wisconsin from a poll obtained by FoX News. Say what you want about bias in FoX News on issues of the day, but it does get objective polls.

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 49-35 among voters in Wisconsin primaries.

Of course that is primary voters who are far from the electorate that one sees in November. Primary voters are generally much more partisan by nature than the public at large. I could never use this poll, but it is consistent with other polls of Wisconsin.

That said, Wisconsin is extremely polarized in partisanship.   

[pbrower2a]

Isn't it amazing! The list of the most recent polls has Hillary Clinton winning all states for which an extant poll is listed. It's not that all the states are all "blue" (Atlas red) states; those now include Missouri, where Obama got clobbered in 2012 and North Carolina, which has gone only once for the Democratic nominee since 1976. Of course that comes to an end if someone polls Alabama. If either Missouri or North Carolina goes for the Democrat in November, then the Republican nominee is staring at a 2008-style defeat. Both? Then it might be the biggest Democratic landslide since 1964.

States that just dropped off the list are very "red" (Atlas blue)... but those were Arizona (where Clinton and Trump were tied), and Utah, where Clinton had a small but insignificant lead over Trump. But if either state is close in November, then the Republicans have big trouble seeking to replace Barack Obama with one of their own. 

If this is how things are on November 8, then many Republicans will be turning away from election coverage to sporting events, old movies, or 'classic' TV reruns.

[pbrower2a]

It's California (KABC-TV, ABC-7, Los Angeles) in a poll by SurveyUSA. The surprise is that Kasich is now indistinguishable from Cruz in electability, suggesting that the political appeal of remaining largely silent while the others make fools of themselves might not be a good long-term strategy.

Kasich has consistently looked better than Cruz in polling everywhere else against Clinton; this may suggest a change in the pattern.

Ted Cruz is the wrong sort of Hispanic to appeal in California.


Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump by 34 points, 60 percent to 26 percent.
Hillary Clinton defeats Ted Cruz by 25 points, 57 percent to 32 percent.
Hillary Clinton defeats John Kasich by 23 points, 56 percent to 33 percent.

Bernie Sanders defeats Donald Trump by 39 points, 63 percent to 24 percent.
Bernie Sanders defeats Ted Cruz by 35 points, 61 percent to 26 percent.
Bernie Sanders defeats John Kasich by 29 points, 57 percent to 28 percent.

http://abc7.com/politics/trump-still-leads-in-ca-despite-negative-views-poll-shows/1275688/

Mississippi, Mason-Dixon.

Mississippi
Trump 46%
Clinton 43%

Trump 39%
Clinton 43%
Third Party 13%

Cruz 51%
Clinton 40%

Kasich 52%
Clinton 37%

https://www.scribd.com/doc/307072107/MS-Pres-Mason-Dixon-March-2016

Nothing involving Sanders. Note that the results for Kasich are beginning to converge upon those for Cruz as I note also in California, a very different state. Two states do not make a trend, no matter how different their politics. But I am not so sure now that Kasich has a real chance of winning the Presidency if nominated.

Note that in a three-way race between Clinton, Trump, and a third-party or independent conservative, Hillary Clinton wins Mississippi. Add the Carter states to Obama 2008 and perhaps exchange Utah and Arizona... perhaps some Upper Plains states which are extremely conservative in personal lifestyles... for Texas and you get an image of America with something that hasn't happened since 1964, a Democrat getting all but one hundred or so electoral votes.



Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Pennsylvania. Registered voters.


In head-to-head general election matchups:

    Kasich buries Clinton 51 - 35 percent;
    Kasich tops Sanders 46 - 40 percent;
    Clinton gets 45 percent to Trump's 42 percent;
    Clinton ties Cruz 43 - 43 percent;
    Sanders tops Trump 48 - 40 percent;
    Sanders beats Cruz 46 - 38 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2341

Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Pennsylvania

In head-to-head general election matchups:

    Kasich buries Clinton 51 - 35 percent;
    Kasich tops Sanders 46 - 40 percent;
    Clinton gets 45 percent to Trump's 42 percent;
    Clinton ties Cruz 43 - 43 percent;
    Sanders tops Trump 48 - 40 percent;
    Sanders beats Cruz 46 - 38 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2341

------

Registered voters. Pennsylvania always looks close in Presidential and Senatorial elections as a possible pick-up for Republicans. GOTV campaigns in urban areas usually pull the Keystone State away from the Republicans, making the state a money pit for the GOP. Republicans establish the vote early in the more rural parts of the state, but GOTV campaigns have little potential for turning out enough GOP-leaning voters in the general election. They are extremely useful (and for Pennsylvania, necessary) for getting out the Democratic vote heavily concentrated in medium-to giant cities and their aging suburbs in Pennsylvania

 

Unlike polls in California and Mississippi, this one has yet to show John Kasich going toward the level of support that one associates with Ted Cruz.  

Virginia, Christopher Newport University:

Clinton 44 - Trump 35

Only matchup shown.

It's obviously far easier to get 50 from 44 than from 35.

90% of Democrats will support  Hillary Clinton in the general election; only 68% of Republicans will support Donald Trump in the general election.

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/april%207%202016%20report-final.pdf

In a state split nearly evenly D-R, the gap of intra-party support bodes ill for Donald Trump.

Wisconsin
Clinton (D) 53%
Trump (R) 47%

Clinton (D) 49%
Trump (R) 41%
Johnson (L) 10%

http://www.oann.com/pollwisconsin/ 




Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Pennsylvania

In head-to-head general election matchups:

    Kasich buries Clinton 51 - 35 percent;
    Kasich tops Sanders 46 - 40 percent;
    Clinton gets 45 percent to Trump's 42 percent;
    Clinton ties Cruz 43 - 43 percent;
    Sanders tops Trump 48 - 40 percent;
    Sanders beats Cruz 46 - 38 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2341

------

Registered voters. Pennsylvania always looks close in Presidential and Senatorial elections as a possible pick-up for Republicans. GOTV campaigns in urban areas usually pull the Keystone State away from the Republicans, making the state a money pit for the GOP. Republicans establish the vote early in the more rural parts of the state, but GOTV campaigns have little potential for turning out enough GOP-leaning voters in the general election. They are extremely useful (and for Pennsylvania, necessary) for getting out the Democratic vote heavily concentrated in medium-to giant cities and their aging suburbs in Pennsylvania

 

Unlike polls in California and Mississippi, this one has yet to show John Kasich going toward the level of support that one associates with Ted Cruz.  

Virginia: Christopher Newport University:

Clinton 44 - Trump 35

Only matchup shown.

It's obviously far easier to get 50 from 44 than from 35.

90% of Democrats will support  Hillary Clinton in the general election; only 68% of Republicans will support Donald Trump in the general election.

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/april%207%202016%20report-final.pdf

In a state split nearly evenly D-R, the gap of intra-party support bodes ill for Donald Trump.  

Maryland, Washington Post:

Clinton 63, Trump 28

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-university-of-maryland-poll-march-30-april-3-2016/2008/


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Potential three-way match-ups involving third-Party conservatives or libertarians (but not Greens!), named or unnamed, against the Democratic nominee and Donald Trump can go here.

I begin with blank maps. 

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
unnamed or identified libertarian or conservative alternative (I)

Sanders (D)
Trump (R)
unnamed or identified libertarian or conservative alternative (I)

Democrat 50% or more (saturation 70%)
Democrat 45% up to 50%, up 5% or more  (saturation 60%)
Democrat 45% up to 50%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 50%)
Democrat 38% up to 45%, up 5% or more  (saturation 40%)
Democrat 38% up to 45%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 30%)


Trump 50% or more (saturation 70%)
Trump 45% up to 50%, up 5% or more  (saturation 60%)
Trump 45% up to 50%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 50%)
Trump 38% up to 45%, up 5% or more  (saturation 40%)
Trump 38% up to 45%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 30%)

Independent or third-Party nominee, any level (saturation 30%)

All else white

This line becomes irrelevant if Cruz or Kasich wins the Republican nomination.

 

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin

Clinton (D) 49%
Trump (R) 41%
Johnson (L) 10%

http://www.oann.com/pollwisconsin/

Mississippi, Mason-Dixon.


Trump 39%
Clinton 43%
Third Party 13%

https://www.scribd.com/doc/307072107/MS-Pres-Mason-Dixon-March-2016


Arizona:

Trump (R): 38%
Clinton (D): 38%
Other/Undecided: 24%


Sanders (D): 39%
Trump (R): 36%
Other/Undecided: 25%

The poll was conducted March 7 to 11 and surveyed 701 likely Arizona voters.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2016/03/17/arizona-poll-trump-clinton-tied-in-november.html

Florida -- Not usable because Bloomberg has stated that he will not run:

Hillary Clinton (D): 41%
Donald Trump (R): 42%
Michael Bloomberg (I): 10%

Bernie Sanders (D): 34%
Donald Trump (R): 45%
Michael Bloomberg (I): 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_22516.pdf

Before this, Donald Trump is frequently the "independent" alternative. No further backtracking unless you can show that I( missed something relevant.

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
unnamed or identified libertarian or conservative alternative (I)

Sanders (D)
Trump (R)
unnamed or identified libertarian or conservative alternative (I)

Democrat 50% or more (saturation 70%)
Democrat 45% up to 50%, up 5% or more  (saturation 60%)
Democrat 45% up to 50%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 50%)
Democrat 38% up to 45%, up 5% or more  (saturation 40%)
Democrat 38% up to 45%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 30%)


Trump 50% or more (saturation 70%)
Trump 45% up to 50%, up 5% or more  (saturation 60%)
Trump 45% up to 50%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 50%)
Trump 38% up to 45%, up 5% or more  (saturation 40%)
Trump 38% up to 45%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 30%)

Independent or third-Party nominee, any level (saturation 30%)

All else white

This line becomes irrelevant if Cruz or Kasich wins the Republican nomination.

 

[pbrower2a]

Connecticut:

John Kasich (R): 49%
Hillary Clinton (D): 38%

Hillary Clinton (D): 48%
Donald Trump (R): 40%

Hillary Clinton (D): 52%
Ted Cruz (R): 31%


http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_a087ef7328134746b90ffd87f80c439e.pdf

Maryland -- Marist, WRC-TV (Washington DC, NBC-4

Clinton (D) 63%
Trump (R) 27%

Clinton (D) 55%
Kasich (R) 38%

Clinton (D) 60%
Cruz (R) 31%


http://media.nbcwashington.com/documents/NBC4_Marist+Poll_Maryland_+Presidential_Annotated+Questionnaire_April+2016.pdf

Massachusetts:

Clinton-Trump: 62-26%  (D+36)
Clinton-Cruz: 63-30% (D+33)


http://patch.com/massachusetts/boston/new-mass-poll-shows-sanders-clinton-cream-trump-hypothetical-head-head-0

New York (State), PPP:

Hillary Clinton (D): 55%
Donald Trump (R): 35%

Hillary Clinton (D): 56%
Ted Cruz (R): 30%

Hillary Clinton (D): 50%
John Kasich (R): 36%



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/new-york-hates-ted-cruz-trump-clinton-lead-big.html

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Connecticut:

Sanders (D) 65%
Trump (R) 26%

Sanders (D) 55%
Kasich (R) 36%

Sanders (D) 63%
Cruz (R) 28%

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_a087ef7328134746b90ffd87f80c439e.pdf

Maryland -- Marist, WRC-TV (Washington DC, NBC-4

Sanders (D) 65%
Trump (R) 26%

Sanders (D) 55%
Kasich (R) 36%

Sanders (D) 63%
Cruz (R) 28%


http://media.nbcwashington.com/documents/NBC4_Marist+Poll_Maryland_+Presidential_Annotated+Questionnaire_April+2016.pdf




Massachusetts:

Sanders-Trump: 70-23% (D+47)
Sanders-Cruz: 71-24% (D+47)

http://patch.com/massachusetts/boston/new-mass-poll-shows-sanders-clinton-cream-trump-hypothetical-head-head-0

Would Massachusetts try to secede if Trump or Cruz got elected over Sanders?


New York (state), PPP:

 
Bernie Sanders (D): 58%
Donald Trump (R): 33%

Bernie Sanders (D): 59%
Ted Cruz (R): 27%

Bernie Sanders (D): 54%
John Kasich (R): 35%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/new-york-hates-ted-cruz-trump-clinton-lead-big.html

Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.