Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.

[pbrower2a]

I just got polled for the 2016 primary (but not the general election) in Michigan.

By what polling firm?  And was it by phone or internet?  And if by phone, was it a live interviewer or a robo-call?

Phone with a live interviewer. The pollster never identified himself.

[pbrower2a]

Utah, Dan Jones. I have no idea of how valid this pollster is, but I have no cause to disbelieve that Hillary Clinton would be clobbered by any Republican -- except Donald Trump -- in Utah.  Trump would fare unusually badly (if not badly enough to lose) by GOP standards in Utah because of his involvement in businesses that do not uphold Mormon values.

56-24 Carson/Clinton
48-21 Rubio/Clinton
48-23 Bush/Clinton
37-26 Trump/Clinton

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/7798-poll-shows-clinton-would-lose-handily-to-gop-candidates-in-utah


It fills some gaps as I would expect it to fill those gaps. No Cruz or Fiorina, though! 
...I need a category for someone ahead in Utah (or any state) with less than 40% of the likely vote, as Trump appears here. I will put it in the "tie" category.  


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac national poll, conducted Nov. 23-30:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2307

Clinton 46%
Carson 43%

Clinton 47%
Trump 41%

Clinton 45%
Rubio 44%

Clinton 47%
Cruz 42%

Sanders 47%
Carson 41%

Sanders 49%
Trump 41%

Sanders 44%
Rubio 43%

Sanders 49%
Cruz 39%

...This nationwide poll is inconsistent with recent Q polls of swing states. But just about every pollster showed Republican candidates  for President surging just after the terrorist attacks in Paris. Statistical blips related to events are as real and genuine as the events themselves.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_120815.pdf

Clinton 43, Bush 43
Clinton 43, Cruz 47
Clinton 43, Trump 47
Clinton 42, Fiorina 44
Clinton 42, Rubio 46
Clinton 41, Carson 47

Sanders 44, Trump 46
Sanders 42, Cruz 44
Sanders 40, Fiorina 40
Sanders 39, Bush 42
Sanders 39, Rubio 44
Sanders 37, Carson 46  

........

Down from a much-more favorable environment for Hillary Clinton, likely from before the investigation of Benghazi and the server 'scandal'. Still, Democrats don't need North Carolina to win nationwide,  and it hasn't been even close to being a tipping-point state since 1976.

If North Carolina is at all close for Hillary Clinton on Election Night, then Republicans are going to have a very bad time.  

PPP gives its story on Iowa next week after polling in the upcoming weekend.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

That's sad, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than Utah.

There will be more Pennsylvania polls; I just can't say when and by whom. Current polls of Pennsylvania come from when Hillary Clinton was ensnared in the doubt about the private server and the 'scandal' of Benghazi.

I'm just making a prediction. Pennsylvania will again look very Atlas Red on this map.

[pbrower2a]

 St. Leo University, Florida.

    Clinton, 48.9 percent, vs. Trump, 41.2 percent.
    Clinton, 48.9 percent, vs. Rubio, 41.2 percent.
    Clinton, 51.2 percent, vs. Carson, 39.1 percent.
    Clinton, 47.3 percent, vs. Bush, 37.9 percent.
    Clinton, 53 percent, vs. Cruz, 34.7 percent
    Clinton, 55.2 percent, vs. former Hewlett-Packard executive Carly Fiorina, 29.7 percent.

    Clinton, 47.5 percent; Fiorina, 12.9 percent; Trump, 30.7 percent.
    Clinton, 46 percent; Cruz, 21.3 percent; Trump, 26 percent.
    Clinton, 45.5 percent; Carson, 20.3 percent; Trump, 27.7 percent,
    Clinton, 44.8 percent; Rubio, 21.8 percent; Trump, 28.2 percent.
    Clinton, 41.8 percent; Bush, 19.1 percent; Trump, 33.4 percent.

http://polls.saintleo.edu/florida-mirrors-nation-in-persistent-affinity-for-trump-or-clinton-plus-growing-concern-for-security/

No way does any Democratic nominee get 55% against any Republican nominee in Florida.Valid only if there is corroboration with other polls (for which see how I see Minnesota).

[pbrower2a]

Montana, Montana State University, Billings:

Trump (R): 51%
Clinton (D): 30%

Carson (R): 60%
Clinton (D): 29%

Rubio (R): 57%
Clinton (D): 29%

Cruz (R): 56%
Clinton (D): 31%

Trump (R): 46%
Sanders (D): 40%

Carson (R): 54%
Sanders (D): 31%

Rubio (R): 48%
Sanders (D): 33%

Cruz (R): 46%
Sanders (D): 36%

http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/2015/POLL_2015.pdf


........

That Bill Clinton won Montana in 1992 and that Barack Obama came close to winning Montana in 2008 is now amazing.

   
New Strategies 360 Arizona: Clinton just behind Trump, trailing Rubio/Cruz

https://twitter.com/ConsultReid/status/677196690085031936
http://www.strategies360.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15-340-AZ-Public-Poll-Toplines.pdf
http://www.strategies360.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15-340-AZ-Public-Poll-CrosstabsR.pdf

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I doubt that as their political views get better known that they will do well with the Latino (in Arizona that is largely Mexican-American). Right-wing Cuban-Americans won't likely do any better among Mexican-Americans than will right-wing Anglos in getting Mexican-American votes. Arizona will probably be closer than that with Cruz or Rubio... and the poor showing of Donald Trump suggests that if he is nominated, anything goes in a state that has gone for a Democratic nominee only once since 1948.  

The tie between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush is very, very old and likely obsolete.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Cant wait til PPP start polling again, NV, CO & Iowa, take the QU bias out, and we know NH & Pa are 51/49 Dem states.

Time is running out this year: I doubt that there will be many polls until early January.

The Q polls are now obsolete, and I predict that new Q polls will reflect a movement toward Hillary Clinton.  PPP has a national poll this week.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, PPP. Very mixed results.

Clinton (D): 41%
Rubio (R): 48%

Clinton (D): 44%
Cruz (R): 47%

Clinton (D): 46%
Bush (R): 41%

Clinton (D): 45%
Fiorina (R): 42%

Clinton (D): 45%
Trump (R): 43%

Clinton (D): 45%
Carson (R): 45%

Clinton (D): 39%
Rubio (R): 33%
Trump (I): 23%

Clinton (D): 41%
Cruz (R): 33%
Trump (I): 20%

Sanders (D): 45%
Fiorina (R): 39%

Sanders (D): 44%
Bush (R): 40%

Sanders (D): 46%
Trump (R): 43%

Sanders (D): 44%
Cruz (R): 43%

Sanders (D): 43%
Carson (R): 42%

Sanders (D): 42%
Rubio (R): 44%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/12/trump-third-party-bid-could-doom-gop-in-swing-state.html

Probably the last statewide matchups of 2015, unless Q has something for us next week. PPP will poll nationally this weekend. Would someone please poll Pennsylvania soon?

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Cant wait til PPP start polling again, NV, CO & Iowa, take the QU bias out, and we know NH & Pa are 51/49 Dem states.

Q shows some movement. It's a national poll, so it portends changes in its next set of statewide polls  of anything. But such will likely be unavailable until January.

With this  national poll I can't imagine Hillary Clinton being behind anyone in Pennsylvania or being anything other than close in Florida or Ohio. No way could she be losing to Donald Trump in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or Wisconsin. She would be close to Trump in Arizona and North Carolina, at the least.

Up by 7 for Hillary Clinton? That suggests a map with a magnitude of wins at least as strong for Hillary Clinton as for Barack Obama in 2008.     

Quinnipiac national poll, conducted Dec. 16-20:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2311

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My maps of binary match-ups are often terribly obsolete.

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of Clinton winning by 7% against Donald Trump based upon
(1) current polls
(2) polls from before the attention to Benghazi and the private server
(3) recent electoral behavior of the states

Note: (2) is now more realistic than (1)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

80% blue -- Trump by 10% or more
50% blue -- Trump by 4-9.9%
20% blue -- Trump by 1-3.9%
white -- virtual tie
20% red -- Clinton by 1-3.9%
50% red -- Clinton by 4-9.9%
80% red -- Clinton by 10% or more

If you are wondering about Kansas, Louisiana, and Utah -- Kansas seems to be getting increasingly unsatisfied with Republicans. Louisiana elected a Democrat as Governor last month. Utah? Trump is doing very badly for a Republican; I think that Mormons are dissatisfied with his business dealings and personal lifestyle.    

[pbrower2a]

Pataki has dropped out -- as if anyone really cared.

[pbrower2a]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_10816.pdf

First statewide poll of 2016. It's only four electoral votes, but New Hampshire is a legitimate swing state.

(The Field Poll has some interesting polls for California, but those do not yet include binary match-ups).

vs Clinton

Clinton 45
Rubio 42

Clinton 46
Bush 40

Clinton 48
Cruz 40

Clinton 50
Carson 39

Clinton 50
Trump 36

vs Sanders

Sanders 50
Bush 38

Sanders 51
Rubio 37

Sanders 53
Carson 34

Sanders 54
Cruz 34

Sanders 54
Cruz 34

3 WAY!

Clinton 43
Rubio 29
Trump 20

Clinton 47
Cruz 28
Trump 18

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

So Trump wins PA, NV, and FL, but loses VA?

Almost all statewide polls are now at least three weeks old. There is a college poll in Florida that shows Hillary Clinton winning Florida by astonishing margins, but I don't believe it. Florida is not D+5.

We are going to see more polling. This coming week we will get a poll from Iowa, a state that Democrats really need (like New Hampshire) to win to win the Presidency.  I expect to see more polls of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia... and even more of Iowa and New Hampshire -- because pollsters do those states often.

The most recent polls have been national polls, and they are consistent with Hillary Clinton having at the least a bare win of the Presidency. The only way in which she is losing so many swing states yet tied nationally is that the partisan identities in American life are beginning to resemble those of the 1970s, which I just don't see happening.   

[pbrower2a]

California -- Field Poll. Not that anyone expects the Golden State to be gold for Democratic nominees for President and 55 electoral votes out of reach for any Republican. These are not binary match-ups, but it is safe to say that neither Rubio, Cruz, nor Trump has a chance in California.   


Image ratings of the leading candidates (among the overall California registered voter population):

52-31 Sanders (+21)
50-44 Hillary (+6)
30-46 Rubio (-16)
29-51 Cruz (-22)
22-73 Trump (-51)

The findings come from a Field Poll completed December 16, 2015-January 3, 2016 among 1,003 registered voters in California.

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers


Nothing on Kasich, Jeb Bush, Carson, or Fiorina.

...nothing to add to the map. Basically consistent with the Cook D+9 rating for California in  national elections.

[pbrower2a]

It's only four electoral votes, but New Hampshire is a legitimate swing state.

lol

New Hampshire is a legitimate swing-state in a 50-50 Presidential election. It was D+1 in 2012,  D+1 in 2008,  D+2 in 2004, and R+1 in 2000. Do you want to believe that New Hampshire has gone D+5 or something like that?

[pbrower2a]

I have two polls to average. This post will not be complete until I have so done this.

I will also average the Marist poll of New Hampshire with the PPP poll from New Hampshire. '

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 47% (+5)
Donald Trump ................................................. 42%

Donald Trump ................................................. 42%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42% (- -)

...

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 45% (+3)
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 42%

Ted Cruz ......................................................... 45%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42% (-3)

...

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 43% (+1)
Marco Rubio ................................................... 42%

Marco Rubio ................................................... 46%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 41% (-5)

...

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 44% (+4)
Ben Carson..................................................... 40%

Ben Carson..................................................... 46%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42% (-4)

...

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 47% (+8)
Jeb Bush......................................................... 39%

Jeb Bush......................................................... 43%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 40% (-3)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf


The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls also show that Sanders outperforms Clinton in hypothetical general-election matchups in these two presidential battleground states - something other surveys have found, too.

In Iowa:

Clinton leads Trump by eight points among registered voters (48 percent to 40 percent), but Sanders is ahead of him by 13 (51 percent to 38 percent);

Cruz tops Clinton by four points (47 percent to 43 percent), but Sanders beats him by five (47 percent to 42 percent);

And up Rubio is up by five points over Clinton (47 percent to 42 percent), while he's tied with Sanders (44 percent to 44 percent).

In New Hampshire:

Clinton is ahead of Trump by just one point (45 percent to 44 percent), but Sanders tops him by 19 points (56 percent to 37 percent);

Cruz beats Clinton by four points (48 percent to 44 percent), but Sanders leads him by another 19 points (55 percent to 36 percent);

And Rubio bests Clinton by 12 points (52 percent to 40 percent), while Sanders leads him by nine points (50 percent to 41 percent).

The primary reason why Sanders tests better in these general-election matchups is due to his stronger performance with independent voters.

...

Quote
The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted Jan. 2-7. In Iowa, the poll measured 2,821 registered voters [+/- 1.8], 1,094 potential GOP caucus-goers (+/- 3.0%), 456 likely GOP caucus-goers (+/- 4.6%), 977 potential Democratic caucus-goers (+/- 3.1%) and 422 likely Dem caucus-goers (+/- 4.8%)

In New Hampshire, the poll measured 1,888 registered voters (+/- 2.3%), 887 potential GOP primary voters (+/- 3.3%), 569 likely GOP primary voters (+/- 4.1%), 690 potential Dem primary voters (+/- 3.7%) and 425 likely Dem primary voters (+/- 4.8%).

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/poll-neck-neck-2016-races-iowa-new-hampshire-n493361

PPP, New Hampshire:

s Clinton

Clinton 45
Rubio 42

Clinton 46
Bush 40

Clinton 48
Cruz 40

Clinton 50
Carson 39

Clinton 50
Trump 36

[pbrower2a]

Marist and PPP cannot both be right, but here is what I have. If you don't like it, then wait for the next poll.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.




[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

I'm going to add polls involving Bernie Sanders and leading Republicans, beginning with the first two polls by PPP and Marist in Iowa and New Hampshire. 

[pbrower2a]

vs Sanders (PPP,NH)

Sanders 50
Bush 38

Sanders 51
Rubio 37

Sanders 53
Carson 34

Sanders 54
Cruz 34

Sanders 54
Trump 34

PPP, IA


Bernie Sanders ............................................... 47% (+5)
Donald Trump ................................................. 42%



Bernie Sanders ............................................... 45% (+3)
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 42%



Bernie Sanders ............................................... 43% (+1)
Marco Rubio ................................................... 42%



...

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 44% (+4)
Ben Carson..................................................... 40%



Bernie Sanders ............................................... 47% (+8)
Jeb Bush......................................................... 39%

In Iowa:

Sanders is ahead of Trump  by 13 (51 percent to 38 percent);

Sanders beats Cruz by five (47 percent to 42 percent);

Sanders is  tied with Rubio (44 percent to 44 percent).

In New Hampshire:

Sanders tops Trump by 19 points (56 percent to 37 percent);

 Sanders leads Cruz by 19 points (55 percent to 36 percent);

Sanders leads Rubio by nine points (50 percent to 41 percent).

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

Bernie Sanders vs. Ben Carson

Bernie Sanders(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(I no longer take Carly Fiorina seriously).


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

LOL Virginia

What's so funny about Virginia?

Many of the polls are terribly obsolete. We are going to see more polls, and if you really believe that the GOP steamroller is just gearing up to crush liberalism once and for all in America we just might see that.

Of course, maybe the most recent poll of Virginia  says more than you might want to believe.

[pbrower2a]

Backtracking because I expect to see few polls from Montana:

 
Trump (R): 46%
Sanders (D): 40%

Carson (R): 54%
Sanders (D): 31%

Rubio (R): 48%
Sanders (D): 33%

Cruz (R): 46%
Sanders (D): 36%

http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/2015/POLL_2015.pdf

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

Bernie Sanders vs. Ben Carson

Bernie Sanders(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(I no longer take Carly Fiorina seriously).


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.




[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

With Va, Trump is a terrible fit, and Dems will win it, along with NH & Pa

What we often forget: the polls involving Pennsylvania are from when the Hillary Clinton campaign was reeling under accusations that she had bungled the Benghazi horror. 

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_12016.pdf

Clinton 42, Rubio 47
Clinton 43, Bush 45
Clinton 43, Trump 45
Clinton 43, Cruz 46
Clinton 44, Carson 47

All within the margin of error, even if all such polls give an edge to the Republican. Any Republican needs an edge of 6% in North Carolina to win the national popular vote. These polls in North Carolina suggest that nothing has really changed since 2012.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_12016.pdf

Sanders 38, Cruz 43
Sanders 39, Rubio 43
Sanders 40, Carson 44
Sanders 41, Bush 42
Sanders 43, Trump 44

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

Bernie Sanders vs. Ben Carson

Bernie Sanders(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(I no longer take Carly Fiorina seriously).


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.