Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.

[pbrower2a]

I want to dump someone for Kasich in binary polls. Whom?

Fiorina and Carson

Done!

Will someone please poll Colorado, Ohio, and Pennsylvania!



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Next PPP polls will be from North Carolina and South Carolina.

Other predictable polls (Super Tuesday):

The participating states include: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado caucuses, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota caucuses, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming Republican caucuses.

-- Wikipedia.

Quinnipiac frequently polls Colorado, Virginia, and Wisconsin together in one week -- and Florida. Ohio, and Pennsylvania in another.

 

[pbrower2a]

Adding the Roanoke University and Siena University polls for Bernie Sanders.

Sanders 55 -- Trump 32

Sanders 48 -- Rubio 38

Sanders 49 -- Cruz 39

http://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/RCPoll.Jan2016.Topline_Exit%20poll.pdf

Siena University, New York:

Sanders 56, Rubio 34
Sanders 60, Cruz 30
Sanders 63, TRUMP 30
Sanders 61, Bush 30
Sanders 59, Kasich 29
Sanders 58, Christie 35

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_February_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(I no longer take Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina seriously).

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

In view of New York State, Cruz and Rubio likely have no special appeal to non-Cuban Hispanics including Puerto Ricans. They are the 'wrong' sorts of Hispanics to appeal to Puerto Ricans in the US mainland.  

But did one really expect Joe Lieberman to have much success appealing to German-Americans in 2000 even if German-Americans have some cultural similarities to Ashkenazi Jews?

[pbrower2a]

Survey USA, North Carolina.

If there should be a poll by PPP, then that one supplants this one.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6581a9ab-f961-4f38-8e5f-c23fc53d1736&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

* Rubio 49%, Clinton 42%
* Cruz 48%, Clinton 43%
* Trump 45%, Clinton 43%



They have Cruz getting 16% of the black vote vs Hillary. Remember SurveyUSA tends to exaggerate black GOP support.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/09/about-that-poll-showing-donald-trump-doing-well-with-black-voters/

I can't imagine Ted Cruz getting 16% of any sample of black voters.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, SurveyUSA. It looks good for Sanders, but there might be a poll by PPP, practically the favored pollster for North Carolina. A PPP poll supplants this one.  I'm averaging.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6581a9ab-f961-4f38-8e5f-c23fc53d1736&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

* Sanders 46%, Cruz 42%
* Sanders 45%, Rubio 44%
* Sanders 44%, Trump 44%

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/09/about-that-poll-showing-donald-trump-doing-well-with-black-voters/

Marco Rubio (R): 45%
Bernie Sanders (D): 41%

Ted Cruz (R): 43%
Bernie Sanders (D): 43%

Bernie Sanders (D): 44%
Donald Trump (R): 43%

Bernie Sanders (D): 43%
Jeb! Bush (D): 42%



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/02/trump-clinton-lead-by-smaller-margins-in-nc.html

Could the rules of 2000-2012 be changing this year? Any Democrat who is even close in North Carolina is almost certainly winning nationwide.

Averaging here.

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(I no longer take Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina seriously).

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Recognizing the new reality in the 2016 election. A hint: much old data becomes meaningless.



Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Same new reality with Sanders and viable R candidates.



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(I no longer take Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina seriously).

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.










[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Ohio is now slightly R in contrast to the rest of the US unless Governor Kasich is the nominee (slight but not yet insignificant chance), in which a Favorite Son wins by an overwhelming majority.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2325

Cruz 46%
Clinton 43%

Kasich 54%
Clinton 37%

Rubio 47%
Clinton 42%

Trump 44%
Clinton 42%

Very little data here -- and it may be an exaggeration. West Virginia will not vote for Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump.

TRUMP (R): 61%
Clinton (D): 24%

Generic R: 63%
Clinton (D): 21%

http://www.wvgazettemail.com/news/20160225/poll-wv-prefers-gop-for-president-democrat-for-governor




Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Ohio, Quinnipiac. Much data added for Sanders. The Favorite Son effect is strong with Kasich in Ohio. Again, Ohio looks slightly R this time in contrast to the US as a whole.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2325


Sanders 44%
Cruz 42%

Kasich 54%
Sanders 35%

Rubio 44%
Sanders 42%

Sanders 44%
Trump 44%

Cruz 37%
Sanders 37%
Bloomberg 11%

Trump 38%
Sanders 35%
Bloomberg 13%



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

PPP will poll Florida this weekend.

States I most want to see polled now, in order:

Pennsylvania
Iowa
Nevada
Colorado
Georgia
Michigan
Arizona
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Missouri  

Indiana? Lots of luck!

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin -- Marquette University General Election Poll

Clinton 47%
Trump 37%

Clinton 43%
Cruz 43%

Clinton 44%
Rubio 43%

PPP, Florida

Donald Trump (R): 46%
Hillary Clinton (D): 44%



Hillary Clinton (D): 45%
Marco Rubio (R): 43%


Hillary Clinton (D): 47%
Ted Cruz (R): 39%



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_22516.pdf

Kasich would have been interesting.




Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

PPP will poll Florida this weekend.

States I most want to see polled now, in order:

Pennsylvania
Iowa
Nevada
Colorado
Georgia
Michigan
Arizona
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Missouri  

Indiana? Lots of luck!

Wisconsin, Marquette University General Election Poll. Welcome additions to this map in a potentially-important state. Wisconsin voters seem to like their Democratic nominees for President to be on the progressive side.



Sanders 54%
Trump 34%

Sanders 53%
Cruz 35%

Sanders 53%
Rubio 35%


... Kasich might do better here; he would be interesting.

Florida, PPP:


Bernie Sanders (D): 44%
Marco Rubio (R): 42%

Hillary Clinton (D): 47%
Ted Cruz (R): 39%

Bernie Sanders (D): 46%
Ted Cruz (R): 39%

Hillary Clinton (D): 41%
Donald Trump (R): 42%
Michael Bloomberg (I): 10%

Bernie Sanders (D): 34%
Donald Trump (R): 45%
Michael Bloomberg (I): 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_22516.pdf



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Georgia, Survey USA

50-41 Trump/Clinton
49-41 Trump/Sanders

49-42 Cruz/Clinton
48-42 Cruz/Sanders

50-43 Rubio/Clinton
49-41 Rubio/Sanders

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4bbed8ac-c9f0-4ef1-a64e-584123cee583

Texas, Survey USA


47% Trump
44% Clinton

47% Trump
44% Sanders

...

50% Cruz
42% Clinton

50% Cruz
41% Sanders

...

51% Rubio
41% Clinton

50% Rubio
40% Sanders

...



http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5d56f70b-d2d2-4f08-935b-d812fdc2b5d7

Not that I particularly like Survey USA, and I don't trust any poll of Texas... but we get few polls of Georgia or Texas. Beggars can't be choosers.


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Two states that combine for 54 electoral votes, just over 10% of all electoral votes. Same pollster, and some counter-intuitive results.

Georgia, Survey USA


49-41 Trump/Sanders


48-42 Cruz/Sanders


49-41 Rubio/Sanders

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4bbed8ac-c9f0-4ef1-a64e-584123cee583

Texas, Survey USA




47% Trump -- 44% Sanders

50% Cruz --   41% Sanders

50% Rubio  -- 40% Sanders

...



http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5d56f70b-d2d2-4f08-935b-d812fdc2b5d7

Not that I particularly like Survey USA, and I don't trust any poll of Texas... but we get few polls of Georgia or Texas. Beggars can't be choosers.



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

A few comments about Georgia and the Survey USA poll:

This pollster gets no significant difference between the results for anyone against anyone. We see few polls of Georgia, a state large enough in electoral votes to have made a difference in some Presidential elections. Georgia is unlikely to make a difference this time. This poll suggests that Georgia will go to the Democratic nominee only in a landslide that results from a political collapse of the Republican nominee, something that I am unready to predict.

The maps show a slight difference between Clinton and Sanders, but that is because the Republicans so far get a solid '50' or slightly higher against Clinton and  slightly less '48' or '49', nearly clinching, against Sanders. My mapping system is rigidly quantitative, and for whatever its flaws I am unlikely to change it.

A few comments about Texas and the Survey USA poll:

As in Georgia, this poll sees no real difference between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders as prospects in the general election.  But it shows differences between Cruz and Rubio on the one side and Trump on the other.

Texas is a difficult state to poll. The state straddles regions, being partially Southwestern, Southeastern, and even Midwestern. Parts of Texas are politically like Nebraska (the Panhandle), New Mexico (the Rio Grande Valley), and Alabama (rural East Texas). Is the Dallas-San Antonio-Galveston triangle like anything else in America, politically? The state is rarely in play, so it typically gets little attention in Presidential politics except  in the primary and if someone running is from Texas.


How rarely is the state in play? Obama, one of the slickest Presidential campaigners ever, lost it 57-41 in 2012 and 55-44 in 2008 (the latter one of the worst political climates for Republicans in recent decades). Kerry lost it 61-38 and Gore lost it 59-38, which may reflect some Favorite Son effect. Bill Clinton lost Texas 49-44-7 (the "7" is Ross Perot) in 1996 to Bob Dole. Bill Clinton was about as good a match for Texas political culture as any Democratic nominee for President since LBJ, but he still lost Texas in a near-landslide election. He lost Texas  41-37-22 (again, the "22" is for Perot) facing two Favorite Son nominees in 1992. 1992 was close for Clinton, but put the combined votes for Bush and Perot of 1992 together and you have roughly the margins by which Dubya won Texas in 2000 and 2004.

At this stage I look for margins. Ted Cruz would qualify as a Favorite Son by the same standards that apply to Dubya, but he does not project to win Texas by anywhere near the margins that I associate with Dubya, neither a great politician nor even a good President. A Republican Presidential nominee winning the state by roughly 10 points will make his concession speech while most adults are still awake on the East Coast. Marco Rubio projects about as well as Ted Cruz in Texas.

SUSA shows absolutely execrable results for Donald Trump in Texas. He projects to win Texas, but not by much. As Trump begins to appear as the near-certain nominee for President, he shows his weakness as a nominee. This is more blatant than in Georgia. Texas has a huge Mexican-American minority, and it is usually much less solid in its Democratic voting than is the huge Mexican-American minority in California. Donald Trump can change that so that Mexican-Americans in Texas will vote like Mexican-Americans in California.

The difference between Mexican-Americans in Texas and Mexican-Americans in California is that Texas did not endure the financial collapse of 2008 as did California. Texas had a crash similar to that of the US in 2008 in the 1980s, also involving real estate speculation, and it led to major reforms of the banking and real estate industries that shielded Texas from the calamities that befell Arizona, California, Colorado, and Nevada (which have large Mexican-American populations) in 2008. Mexican-Americans are the people most likely to buy into real estate at any level of income, and are often the poorest people to buy it in any community. Mexican-Americans in Arizona, California, Colorado, and Nevada were more likely to buy into the real-estate bubble and get ruined when the bubble collapsed. Mexican-Americans found qualifying for real-estate loans in Texas much more difficult; furthermore they were unable to borrow against equity in housing with inflated valuation (a Texas reform) that would get them in even worse trouble. So Mexican-Americans in Texas did not get as badly burned in Texas as elsewhere in America.

This time it could be Donald Trump threatening mass deportation of 'illegal aliens' even if such implies the breakup of intact families. Mexican-Americans are more likely to know and have relationships of at least friendship with illegal aliens. Ask yourself whether the first thing that you ask on a date is about 'citizenship status'.       

[pbrower2a]

Another university poll of Virginia. Kasich has a slight edge, but other Republicans lose there.

Clinton 48, Trump 39
Clinton 48, Cruz 43
Clinton 48, Rubio 45
Clinton 49, Carson 44
Kasich 45, Clinton 44



http://docs.hamptonu.edu/student/Virginia_Statewide_Survey_-_Presidential_Poll_2016_-_February_18-22_2016_20160225173541.pdf


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Same pollster, this time with Sanders.

Sanders 48, Trump 39
Sanders 46, Cruz 43
Sanders 46, Rubio 44
Sanders 47, Carson 43
Kasich 44, Sanders 43

http://docs.hamptonu.edu/student/Virginia_Statewide_Survey_-_Presidential_Poll_2016_-_February_18-22_2016_20160225173541.pdf



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Another university poll of Virginia. Kasich has a slight edge, but other Republicans lose there.

Clinton 48, Trump 39
Clinton 48, Cruz 43
Clinton 48, Rubio 45
Clinton 49, Carson 44
Kasich 45, Clinton 44



http://docs.hamptonu.edu/student/Virginia_Statewide_Survey_-_Presidential_Poll_2016_-_February_18-22_2016_20160225173541.pdf

MRG, Michigan. No Sanders and no Kasich. One of the many pollsters that do Michigan only, and not very reliably.  

Clinton 44%
Trump 39%

Clinton 44%
Cruz 39%

Rubio 43%
Clinton 41%i

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/MRG_MI_Poll_Spring_16_Pres_Prim-FINAL.pdf


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire, WMUR-TV (ABC 9, southern New Hampshire)

Clinton 47, Trump 39

Clinton 45, Rubio 43

Clinton 46, Cruz 35

Kasich 47, Clinton 37

http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmur-poll-in-general-election-matchups-new-hampshire-still-feels-the-bern/38257714

Colorado, On-Sight Public Affairs (D)

49% Clinton
39% Trump

http://onsightpublicaffairs.com/admin/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/KR-ONSIGHT-3-2-2016-XTABS.pdf

Limited data, but a 10% lead for Clinton against Trump suggests that Colorado will not be an easy pickup from 2012 for Republicans. I have cause to discount the blue shades for Cruz and Rubio against Clinton with this poll, so I am graying them out. 


I would love to have seen how Sanders does and how both do against Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio... but even if there is a D bias in the pollster, a 10% advantage is good enough to suggest that Colorado will be troublesome for Republicans.

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire, WMUR-TV. ABC 9 in southern New Hampshire.

Sanders 55, Trump 34

Sanders 54, Rubio 35


Sanders 60, Cruz 28 (LOL)


Sanders 48, Kasich 40


http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmur-poll-in-general-election-matchups-new-hampshire-still-feels-the-bern/38257714



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Bernie Sanders isnt gonna win nomination. He overperformed in GE and underperformed in primaries. I wished we had a reasonable alternative and Biden won

Well, Ben Carson dropped out.

...I am slow to deem a campaign over. Basically when the money runs out so does the campaign.

Donald Trump obviously has a much-higher-than-50% chance of winning the nomination. He has done well in Republican primaries and caucuses in all parts of the country. He seals the election if he gets 37-35-30 wins in some winner-take-all states. There is some effort at a Stop Trump campaign; I doubt that it can succeed.

Cruz and Rubio have to do extremely well to have any chance. Kasich must do freakishly well to win. Basically Cruz and Rubio would both have to unite behind Kasich, who seems neither a fanatic nor a hack.

Cruz seems like a new Barry Goldwater, only nastier. Rubio claims to be a veritable reincarnation of Ronald Reagan -- but Reagan was a far shrewder politician. A hint about Ronald Reagan: Barack Obama has much the same skills. Kasich is closer to being an orthodox Reaganite than Trump, Cruz, or Rubio.

It is easier to come from behind if one has a four-way race for the nomination than if one has a two-way contest. In a strict two-way contest it is nearly impossible to win without getting an absolute majority. I have noted that the Democratic Party relies heavily upon the votes of ethnic minorities, and those ethnic minorities have concerns other than economic equity -- like police brutality and the quality of education. 

Being down 37-5 in the delegate count early in a 4-way contest may be less of a doom  than being down 52-47 in a binary contest at the same time. Neither Sanders nor Clinton can seek support from the supporters of those whose campaigns have failed.     

[pbrower2a]

Michigan, Marist: Big leads for either Clinton or Sanders against Cruz or Trump.

Clinton 52 - Trump 36
Clinton 48 - Cruz 41

Correction of the polling map in Florida.

New York, Siena:


Clinton 56 - Rubio 35
Clinton 58 - Cruz 33
Clinton 57 - Trump 34
Clinton 49 - Kasich 42

Sanders 58 - Rubio 32
Sanders 63 - Cruz 29
Sanders 57 - Trump 33
Sanders 54 - Kasich 35

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0316N_Crosstabs.pdf

Note that Kasich is far more credible than other Republicans in New York, and probably also in the northeastern quadrant of the US and on the West Coast.

New Jersey, Fairleigh-Dickinson University (Trump match-ups only)

52-36 Clinton/Trump
51-36 Sanders/Trump

http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160307

 

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Marist, Michigan.

Sanders 56 - Trump 34
Sanders 54 - Cruz 36

Really quick call in November. Sanders suggests at the least a 2008-style win.With Michigan going by this margin, the Republican nominee will have a tough time winning INDIANA.


Correction of a poll in Florida.

New York, Siena:


Clinton 56 - Rubio 35
Clinton 58 - Cruz 33
Clinton 57 - Trump 34
Clinton 49 - Kasich 42

Sanders 58 - Rubio 32
Sanders 63 - Cruz 29
Sanders 57 - Trump 33
Sanders 54 - Kasich 35

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0316N_Crosstabs.pdf

52-36 Clinton/Trump
51-36 Sanders/Trump

http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160307




Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

CNN by ORC International. Florida and Ohio.

OHIO:

48-46 Clinton/Rubio
50-43 Clinton/Trump
51-42 Clinton/Cruz

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/03/09/reloh1ohio.pdf

FLORIDA:

50-43 Clinton/Trump
46-47 Clinton/Cruz
44-48 Clinton/Rubio

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/03/09/relfl1florida.pdf

 

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.