PA-2016/Quinnipiac: Sen. Toomey (R) up 10 vs. Sestak

[pbrower2a]

LOL @ Pbrower.

Not ignoring it.

The 28% approval rating for Pat Toomey from PPP could be an outlier. We are going to see lots of polls.

That said -- Pennsylvania is tilt-D, and Toomey barely won in one of the most Republican-tilting elections in Congressional history. If 2016 is the same sort of political climate, Toomey wins, and Republicans get more seats in the Senate on the way to getting the ability to change the Constitution practically at will in January 2019 as they gain even more Senate seats in  the wake of the 2018 election.

This said, nobody can predict what the political climate of 2016 will be. The Koch family has committed nearly $900 million to the Congressional campaign of 2016. Money shouts in our political order, and it may now rule.

Pat Toomey will not lose in a landslide -- that is certain. Unlike Rick Santorum he has not abused power as a toady of the current President; unlike Pat Corbett he has not soiled himself protecting a corrupt institution. But in a high-turnout election as is the norm for a Presidential year, he will have trouble convincing Democratic-leaning voters to vote for him or (more likely) stay home.   

We can predict some of the features of the 2016 election about as reliably as we can predict the Olympic medal count for China, any winner of the Nobel Prize for medicine, the TV program line-ups of 2016, or the World Series.   

[pbrower2a]

We also need to consider the State in question.

Approval is relevant because that says much about the incumbent politician and his effectiveness. That includes creating a positive image of himself and not losing it --and constituent service (as in bringing home the goodies from pork-barrel politics).

 But so of course are

(1) the quality of the opponent
(2) the campaign itself
(3) the state in question
(4) the political climate at the time of the election, and
(5) fund raising and expenditures on front groups. 

(1) about all that we know is that Pat Toomey will run for re-election.
(2) we have yet to see that
(3) it is Pennsylvania, and a conservative Republican is in a tough state to get re-elected in
(4) midterms and Presidential electorates are very different, and how well Americans perceive the two Parties will shape how the Senate elections go
(5) if the Republican hold on the Senate depends upon Pat Toomey while four other Republican incumbents are crashing and burning and the race for US Senator from Pennsylvania, then count on the Koch fronts to flood Pennsylvania airways with ads demonizing his opponent as those fronts did to every vulnerable incumbent Democratic Senator in 2014. Those ads worked extremely well. Democrats do not do that well unless the Republican practically says something stupid about rape -- Pat Toomey isn't that stupid.

If the political climate of America is again as in 2010 and 2014, then we can reasonably count on the Republicans holding onto the Senate, with Toomey safely re-elected.

In another thread I noticed that the approval rating for Senator Boozman (R-AR) has only a 40% approval rating. But that's Arkansas, a state that has swung quickly and probably forever, to the Right. The 40% approval for Boozman gives me less cause to believe that a Democrat could unseat him than does the 43% approval rating for Toomey.

I see Boozman far from his ceiling and Toomey close to his.

   

[pbrower2a]

As much as pbrower may be guilty of only believing in the poll numbers he likes, so is everyone here who is acting like this poll completely negates the PPP one. It's a good poll for Toomey, but let's see if other polls show similar results before concluding that Toomey is in good shape.

I agree with what others have said: it's good for Toomey, and he should be considered a favorite.  However, it certainly doesn't spell absolute doom for Democrats.

PPP and Quinnipiac will get plenty of polling results for the Keystone State.  It's still a long time until November 2016. The public mood can turn on a dime. Heck, nobody knows who the challenger will be.

One thing is certain -- Senator Toomey will be one of the most obvious targets of the Democratic Senatorial campaign until he shows himself out of reach.

(Heck, I see a way in which the Republicans can win the Senate seat from California!)   

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac rightly overshadowed it but it should still be noted that PPP released a poll yesterday, too, showing Toomey up 6% from his most recent approval rating in a PPP poll.

So pbrower really has to give it up with the "BUT 28%!!!" routine.

I DID!

I said that it could be an outlier. But Senator Toomey could be very close to his ceiling. Pennsylvania is a tough state for right-wing Republicans. 

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac rightly overshadowed it but it should still be noted that PPP released a poll yesterday, too, showing Toomey up 6% from his most recent approval rating in a PPP poll.

So pbrower really has to give it up with the "BUT 28%!!!" routine.

I DID!

I said that it could be an outlier. But Senator Toomey could be very close to his ceiling. Pennsylvania is a tough state for right-wing Republicans. 

But are you now admitting that Toomey might survive? Or are you still sticking to your ridiculous "Toomey has a 0% chance of winning, NO MATTER WHAT!!!" assertion that you made when the 28% poll came out?

0%? Did I ever say 0%? I would not give "0%" for the chance of Mali winning a medal at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games... yet. 0% involves reversal of time, alteration of history, people dead for a year rising from the dead...    The prediction was not so ridiculous when Toomey had a 28% approval rating.

[pbrower2a]

Corey Gardner had 7-10 pt leads as well,  Quinnepiac sampled, and the Dems were well within margin of error as election came around, as we are full aware of.

It makes me cry that this is an "edited post"


RE: Sestak running on the good economy.

Toomey is the incumbent. The economy has turned around since he was elected. All the more to build the bipartisan image around. Hysterical how Dems think it is going to be easy to paint him as an extremist without a fight. Toomey is in the driver's seat, and that's undeniable. Time for him to push the gears of how this campaign will go.

Prior affiliations (Club for Growth) that might not have been so troublesome in 2010 that could be more troublesome in 2016. Toomey has a voting record, and it is mostly Hard Right.

Joe Sestak might be have been the best candidate to run against Pat Toomey in 2010 and not the best in 2016.

Democrats can run against Hard Right ideology more successfully in 2016 than in 2010 or 2014 -- and a politician who holds that no hardships are excessive if they turn out a profit that only a few can derive a benefit from would be vulnerable in a state that just does not re-elect Hard Right pols in statewide elections.

Of course if the majority of Americans have become economic masochists they will get what they want -- plenty of hardship. Corporate America has always been generous with mass hardship when it had the opportunity to deliver such.