What's the Matter with Kansas?

[pbrower2a]

Post #10K!

States can shift from D to R or vice-versa as the great political concerns of the majority change. Consider both Virginia and West Virginia in recent years. It used to be that Virginia went for a Republican nominee for President in all but blowout wins for a Democrat, at least since 1948.  Virginia went for Nixon in 1960; it was the only non-former Confederate state to reject Jimmy Carter in 1976; it never voted for Bill Clinton despite Clinton winning 370-some electoral votes twice. But it went for Barack Obama in  2008 and 2012. Its politics became increasingly non-Southern as it became more industrial and commercial. It became more like Ohio and less like Alabama. In contrast, West Virginia used to be one of the states least likely to go for a Republican nominee, perhaps because of strong and politically-active unions in the mining and heavy industry that dominated the economy. As miners and workers in heavy industry lost their jobs, the cultural conservatism of West Virginia came to dominate politics. West Virginia could vote for Bill Clinton, who was a good match for West Virginia.

Kansas is traditionally one of the most R states in the Union. It has voted for a Democratic nominee for President only three times in the last century -- FDR in 1932 and 1936, and LBJ in his 1964 blowout. Kansas politics typically had their contests between 'moderate' and 'reactionary' Republicans.  Whoever won the Republican primary was going to win a statewide race.  What has changed is that the Republican Party has all but purged the moderate wing of the GOP out of the Republican Party. For those the tiny Democratic Party is available.

'The matter with Kansas' is that it long did not need a Democratic Party. Now it does. Kansas is not a Southern state. Its demographics are closer to those of Iowa, a state in which Democrats usually win the state's electoral votes, than to Missouri. Ranch and oil interests are probably stronger in Kansas than in Iowa (think of how right-wing eastern Colorado and eastern new Mexico are) but not as dominant as in Oklahoma or Texas. Kansas does much better than Southern states in formal education, and it is not as blatant a hotbed for fundamentalist Christianity as is its neighbor Missouri. 

The Hard Right took over the GOP in Kansas and has governed as it promised. It has shown itself insensitive and incompetent. For those who dislike that, Kansas voters can now vote like Iowa voters. 

   

[pbrower2a]

What kind of independent campaign is Greg Orman running?

Is he trying to be a "Pat Roberts isn't conservative enough" kind of independent, or a Moderate Hero/"Let's stop the polarization and find innovative solutions"/Eliot Cutler/Angus King kind of independent?

Definitely the latter.

This. Plus Hillary's only polling in the high 30s to low 40's. Her ceiling isn't much higher than Obama's in the last two elections.

The unpopularity of Brownback and Roberts do not show Republicans vulnerable in the 2016 Presidential election -- yet.