Found the last time FiveThirtyEight ran a simulation with Clinton as Dem nomine

[pbrower2a]

That map was a bunch of crap!

What was the Obama map on June 5?

This:

McCain wins, 286-252.

It was crap only to the extent that it underestimated Barack Obama as a campaigner and failed to predict the economic meltdown in the autumn of 2008 that started to look like a replay of 1929. It was based on some early polls in Michigan that showed McCain winning. Michigan usually looks like an R-leaning swing state until Labor Day, when unions start their GOTV campaigns in earnest. Few people took seriously that Virginia was a possible Obama win. New Hampshire broke late.

This June map, in contrast to the electoral reality of November 2008, showed where Obama was in June. He then campaigned brilliantly. After about July 1 he was behind McCain only just after the Republican convention.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan typically breaks late for Democrats.  It swung, all right, in 2008 -- from close to the national average to a Democratic blowout.

Michigan is home to some of the cr@ppiest one-state pollsters, and those showed McCain decidedly ahead in Michigan. If one trusted PPP, the state was close until early September and went quickly out of contention.

There were signs that McCain was in trouble. Virginia, a state that had not gone for a Democratic nominee in a Republican win since 1924, gave plenty of leads to Obama. Several polls showed Indiana really close. Iowa, which Gore barely won and Kerry barely lost, vanished from contention.