AR-PPP: All Pubs lead Clinton

[pbrower2a]

Confirms my belief that Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina are well above Arkansas as Democratic 2016 targets.

I don't think anybody would dispute that, even before this poll.

I'd absolutely dispute Arizona.

Arizona? Large Hispanic population to which  the GOP has nothing to offer. I have seen mixed results in the same poll. The Anglo population will eventually need to vote about 70% R for Republicans to win statewide.

Arizona is about eight years behind Colorado and Nevada, about ten years behind New Mexico, and about twenty years behind California in having a D edge instead of an R edge.   

[pbrower2a]

Arizona margin relative to national margin

1960: R+11.32
1964: R+23.57
1968: R+19.06
1972: R+8.11
1976: R+18.63
1980: R+22.62
1984: R+15.66
1988: R+13.48
1992: R+7.51
1996: R+6.30
2000: R+6.80
2004: R+7.99
2008: R+15.74
2012: R+12.90

Arizona population, % non-hispanic white:
1960 - 1.3m, (no data but probably within 74-77%)
1970 - 1.8m, 74%
1980 - 2.7m, 75%
1990 - 3.7m, 72%
2000 - 5.1m, 64%
2010 - 6.4m, 58%
2020? - 7.2m, 52%

I don't see how Arizona stays so Republican in the future. It's very likely going to have a relative shift like we've seen in other southwest states (CA, NV, CO, NM).

What happened in the other states is that Republican pols got increasingly strident as their margins of victory shrank. Hispanics abandon the GOP, and the GOP victories of recent years become losses. Arizona is next. Texas is at least a couple of decades away.   

The white non-Hispanic voters have never been as hostile to Hispanics as they have been to blacks at the same time and place. 

Obama would've come very close to carrying Arizona in 2008 if McCain wasn't the nominee.

On the average the Favorite Son effect for a Presidential election is about 10% for someone seen well in his own state. Just look at the difference between the Dole win of Texas in 1996 and the Bush win of Texas in 2000 -- and the difference between the Bush win of Texas in 2004 and the McCain win of Texas in 2008. Look also at how comparatively well McGovern did in South Dakota in 1972. The home-state advantage is all that kept Walter Mondale from losing fifty states in 1984.

The 7.75% gain against PVI in Arizona for McCain was unusually low, but not out of range.

...I can see Arizona shifting D. Just look at how "R" Vermont used to be and how "D" West Virginia used to be. Arizona has obvious similarities in demography to California, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. "More Mormons" will not be enough to stop the trend. 

[pbrower2a]

With the Republican party abandoning immigration reform and any pretext of outreach to Hispanics, it seems that they are going for the whole 'missing white voter strategy'. Republicans are going to double down on the xenophobia to win over a greater share of whites.

Sadly, whites in Arizona and other states may get even more Republican due to the growing number of brown immigrants and a kind of tribalist 'stick together' mentality.

In no part of the United States have white people ever had the antipathy toward Hispanics that they have shown to blacks. That includes hostility in employment and toward potential in-laws.