Rick Snyder 2016

[pbrower2a]

This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.

Yes, he will.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/07/snyder-schauer-tied-peters-leads-by-5.html

Not with approval numbers this low in Michigan. An elected  incumbent needs 44% approval early in the campaign to have a 50% chance of winning re-election.  (This does not apply to an appointed incumbent who needs nearly 50% to get re-elected).

If the election looks close going into Labor Day in Michigan, union and minority GOTV drives usually seal a Democratic win. Unions want Rick Snyder gone for the "Right to Work" law. 

[pbrower2a]

This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.

Yes, he will.

Uh did you see today's PPP poll? It looks REALLY good for Schauer. His name recognition is atrocious yet he ties Snyder, and Snyder's approval rating is absolute garbage. And Snyder's "right to work" law is unpopular. It's Michigan, so undecideds will break Democrat, and like pbrower said, GOTV from big labor as well as a general increase in Schauer's name recognition (and as a result, popularity) will get Schauer over the line.

Have you seen the other recent polls?  Snyder is comfortably ahead in those.  I'd rather take my numbers from a nonpartisan pollster than the polling arm of the Democratic party.

PPP is one of the best. Michigan has lots of right-leaning pollsters who get proved wrong in the general election.

Mark Schauer can win. He was one of the barer losers in the 2010 Tea Party election, and at the request of the Koch brothers, the State legislature gerrymandered Schauer out of most of what had been his district, roughly an R+3 district. 

His district, largely in rural southern Michigan, is not near the great population centers of southeastern Michigan. He has not been known well there. As he gets better known in southeastern Michigan he can and will gain.

Rick Snyder has $crewed working people by supporting Right-to-Work legislation in a heavily-unionized state. He was doing fine until then, and I saw him as one of the most likely VP nominees of the Republican Party.