Sometimes it feels like this forum is writing an obituary for the GOP, which is ironic considering that the party is poised to do quite well in the elections this year. Even Upshot gives them a 56 percent chance of retaking the Senate, and that outfit leans a bit Dem compared to 538.
I am not so convinced that the GOP is going to do well enough to take the Senate in 2014; it will almost certainly gain open D seats in MT, SD, and WV. Senate incumbents Pryor in Arkansas, Landrieu in Louisiana, and Hagan are all more likely than not (they are ahead in polling) to win than lose re-election. Add to that, the Republican Senator from Kentucky is in deep trouble, and the open Senate seat is very much up for grabs. In view of how unpopular "your Congressman" is according to a Gallup poll, more Republicans than Democrats are vulnerable in the House. It is now below 50%, and the last times the approval for "your Congressman" has been close to that low (2006, 2010), the House switched majorities.
44% approval is good enough early in a campaign season for an incumbent Governor or Senator, but it has to be near 50% for an incumbent Representative because the talent for defeating a sitting Representative is easier to find.
If the GOP could survive the Great Depression it is not on its way to political oblivion.
That's asking for a lot. With ideas like those of Calvin Coolidge in the 1930s one could never go far in either Vermont or Massachusetts politics. Right-wing Republicans no longer get elected to statewide office in either Massachusetts or Vermont. Vermont used to be one of the most conservative states in the Union, actually voting for Alf Landon in 1936.
Right-wing populism well exploits xenophobia and anti-intellectualism. That works in some parts of the country, but it offends multitudes elsewhere.
Right-wing populism is inherently authoritarian. People don't fall for right-wing authoritarianism if they see themselves as possible scapegoats of right-wingers. Just look at the Asian vote.
