31% is still not a great number to be at, nor leading at 43%. Still, ALG needs to start making more ground at this point in order for this to be a race.
This study goes only to 2008.
31% approval is absolutely dreadful. It implies that that even partisan support for one
from the base is weak. Tom Corbett has about that level of support in Pennsylvania.
Incumbent Governors and Senators can recover from about 44% approval and win about 50% of the time. The average incumbent running against the average challenger in an average election typically gains about 6% by campaigning. Such is true whether the incumbent has about 40% approval or 60% approval, according to Silver. Besides, people are generally averse to admitting that the person for whom they voted for in the previous election was a mistake. But it is clear that any politician whose support is in the 40% range is ordinarily a mistake to be defeated the next time.
There's nothing from 2010 -- but Senators Feingold (D-WI) and Lincoln (D-AR) were in deep trouble. Both lost badly. But as you can see, few examples of politicians with approvals below 40% at the start of the campaign season appear on the list (five), and one of them (Menendez in new Jersey) won. Everything went right for Menendez -- weak opponent, and a midterm election in which the incumbent President of the opposing Party was extremely unpopular for causes that got worse, and worse, and worse.
Maybe Mitch McConnell can get his approval numbers up to around 40% in the early spring, maybe President Obama will be seen as a catastrophic failure, his opponent will stumble her way through an inept campaign, and maybe the Republicans will benefit from a major shift in cultural patterns (like a right-wing religious revival). But that is asking for much. His 31% approval suggests that he is vulnerable to a primary challenge that, even if he survives it, can hurt him badly in the general election.
Senator McConnell has approval levels appropriate for someone under investigation for official misconduct, someone who abuses power, someone who has stepped on too many toes, or someone just not up to the job. Or he could be out of touch with changing realities of politics. Remember -- he barely got re-elected in 2008 in a great year for Republican politicians in the southeastern quadrant of the United States (other than VA, NC, and FL). 2014 may not be so great a year for Southern Republicans. They can get the blame for bad economic conditions in their states.
Politicians who have approval ratings in the low 30s do not appear on this list. Most seem to either decide to retire, get defeated in primary elections, or get impeached and removed for official misconduct. I find it hard to believe that Senator McConnell could do better than his predecessors whose approval ratings were in the high 30s.
He has basically been running against Barack Obama, which might not be so relevant in 2014. "But Kentucky is such a conservative state!", you might say. Few outside of Wisconsin saw Senator Russ Feingold going down to defeat in such a liberal state as Wisconsin to a boilerplate right-winger.
