Overall gay marriage support in the Senate: with map!

[pbrower2a]

I figured this effortpost deserved its own thread

Oh cool, according to that wiki link and the corresponding page of gay marriage opponents, a plurality of Senators now support SSM (43 in favor, 41 opposed).

UPDATE

I sperg'd out and actually researched it. Actual breakdown is as follows:

Democrats:
45 Supporters
6 Opponents (Donnelly, Manchin, Heitkamp, Johnson, Nelson, Pryor)
4 Ambiguous (Casey, Hagan, Landrieu, Tester)

Republicans:
1 Supporter (Portman)
42 Opponents
2 Ambiguous (Collins, Kirk)

Notes:

• I counted Carper, Kaine, and Rockefeller as supporters; they haven't explicitly endorsed gay marriage, but have made statements that make their beliefs somewhat obvious (and all three signed onto an amicus brief arguing that DADT be overturned in full)
• Hagan and Tester both sound like they'd be obvious supporters of gay marriage if they didn't have reelection concerns
• Landrieu avoids making any statements on the issue at all costs
• Casey looks to be in the middle of an "evolution" on the issue and is clearly hoping the Supreme Court solves everything so he won't have to make any difficult votes
• Donnelly sounds like he's beginning an "evolution" of his own
• Heitkamp would probably support gay marriage if she was from a liberal state; the other five Democratic opponents appear to genuinely oppose it on principle

Also here's a map!

30% shade means one Senator from the state has an ambiguous position. Gray states have one Senator in support and one opposed. (errors possible, I made the map pretty quickly)

[pbrower2a]

I want to go on record saying that I think the term "evolve" is inane. Even if we pretend the Congressman (or prez; he coined the term) aren't just being cynical, at least have the sincerity to say they've changed their minds. Flip flopping is not evolution.

The 'evolution' comes from the defeat of politicians out of touch with political reality more often than it comes from politicians deciding that what they have long stood for is indefensible.

[pbrower2a]

I figured this effortpost deserved its own thread


Democrats:
46 Supporters
6 Opponents (Donnelly, Manchin, Heitkamp, Johnson, Nelson, Pryor)
3 Ambiguous (Casey, Hagan, Landrieu)

Republicans:
1 2 Supporters (Portman, Kirk)
42 Opponents
2 1 Ambiguous (Collins, Kirk)

Notes:

• I counted Carper, Kaine, and Rockefeller as supporters; they haven't explicitly endorsed gay marriage, but have made statements that make their beliefs somewhat obvious (and all three signed onto an amicus brief arguing that DADT be overturned in full)
• Hagan and Tester both sound like they'd be obvious supporters of gay marriage if they didn't have reelection concerns
  
• Landrieu avoids making any statements on the issue at all costs is evolving!
  
• Casey looks to be in the middle of an "evolution" on the issue and is clearly hoping the Supreme Court solves everything so he won't have to make any difficult votes
• Donnelly sounds like he's beginning an "evolution" of his own
• Heitkamp would probably support gay marriage if she was from a liberal state; the other five Democratic opponents appear to genuinely oppose it on principle

Also here's a map!

30% shade means one Senator from the state has an ambiguous position. Gray states have one Senator in support and one opposed.

UPDATE: Included Tester.

[pbrower2a]

I figured this effortpost deserved its own thread

You missed Casey and Hagan, who are now unambiguously in favor.

Democrats:
48 Supporters
6 Opponents (Donnelly, Manchin, Heitkamp, Johnson, Nelson, Pryor)
3 Ambiguous (Casey, Hagan, Landrieu)

Republicans:
2 Supporters (Portman, Kirk)
42 Opponents
1 Ambiguous (Collins, )

Notes:

• I counted Carper, Kaine, and Rockefeller as supporters; they haven't explicitly endorsed gay marriage, but have made statements that make their beliefs somewhat obvious (and all three signed onto an amicus brief arguing that DADT be overturned in full)
• Hagan and Tester both sound like they'd be obvious supporters of gay marriage if they didn't have reelection concerns
  
• Landrieu  is evolving!
• Casey looks to be in the middle of an "evolution" on the issue and is clearly hoping the Supreme Court solves everything so he won't have to make any difficult votes
• Donnelly sounds like he's beginning an "evolution" of his own
• Heitkamp would probably support gay marriage if she was from a liberal state; the other five Democratic opponents appear to genuinely oppose it on principle

Also here's a map!

30% shade means one Senator from the state has an ambiguous position. Gray states have one Senator in support and one opposed.

UPDATE: Included Tester.

[pbrower2a]

I figured this effortpost deserved its own thread

You missed Casey and Hagan, who are now unambiguously in favor.

Democrats:
49 Supporters
6 Opponents (Donnelly, Manchin, Heitkamp, Johnson, Nelson, Pryor)
3 Ambiguous (Casey, Hagan, Landrieu)

Republicans:
2 Supporters (Portman, Kirk)
42 Opponents
1 Ambiguous (Collins, )

Notes:

• I counted Carper, Kaine, and Rockefeller as supporters; they haven't explicitly endorsed gay marriage, but have made statements that make their beliefs somewhat obvious (and all three signed onto an amicus brief arguing that DADT be overturned in full)
• Hagan and Tester both sound like they'd be obvious supporters of gay marriage if they didn't have reelection concerns
  
• Landrieu  is evolving!
• Casey looks to be in the middle of an "evolution" on the issue and is clearly hoping the Supreme Court solves everything so he won't have to make any difficult votes
• Donnelly sounds like he's beginning an "evolution" of his own
• Heitkamp would probably support gay marriage if she was from a liberal state; the other five Democratic opponents appear to genuinely oppose it on principle

Also here's a map!

30% shade means one Senator from the state has an ambiguous position. Gray states have one Senator in support and one opposed.

[pbrower2a]

I figured this effortpost deserved its own thread


Democrats:
51 48 Supporters
2 2 Opponents (Donnelly, Manchin, Heitkamp, Johnson, Pryor)
3 1 Ambiguous (Landrieu)

Republicans:
1 2 Supporters (Portman, Kirk)
42 Opponents
2 1 Ambiguous (Collins, Kirk)

Notes:

• I counted Carper, Kaine, and Rockefeller as supporters; they haven't explicitly endorsed gay marriage, but have made statements that make their beliefs somewhat obvious (and all three signed onto an amicus brief arguing that DADT be overturned in full)
• Hagan sounds like shey'd be obvious supporters of gay marriage if they didn't have reelection concerns
• Landrieu avoids making any statements on the issue at all costs is evolving!
  
  
  Also here's a map!
  
  
  
  
  
  30% shade means one Senator from the state has an ambiguous position. Gray states have one Senator in support and one opposed.
  
  UPDATE: Included Tester, Donnelly, Johnson, and Heitkamp.
  

Who is the next Republican? Ayotte? Grassley? Heller?

[pbrower2a]

Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) now endorses civil unions. Pryor shows signs of evolving.

I figured this effortpost deserved its own thread


Democrats:
52 48 Supporters
2 1 Opponents ([Manchin, Pryor)
2 Ambiguous (Landrieu, Pryor)

Republicans:
1 2 Supporters (Portman, Kirk)
41 Opponents
2 Ambiguous (Collins, Hatch*)

Notes:

• I counted Carper, Kaine, and Rockefeller as supporters; they haven't explicitly endorsed gay marriage, but have made statements that make their beliefs somewhat obvious (and all three signed onto an amicus brief arguing that DADT be overturned in full)
• Hagan sounds like she'd be obvious supporters of gay marriage if they didn't have reelection concerns
• Landrieu avoids making any statements on the issue at all costs is evolving!
  
• A public statement of support for civil unions as a formal solution is an unambiguous move toward -- ambiguity. Note that the LDS Church has been making moves toward tolerating homosexuality.

Also here's a map!

30% shade means one Senator from the state has an ambiguous position. Gray states have one Senator in support and one opposed.

UPDATE: Included Tester, Donnelly, Johnson, and Heitkamp.

Who is the next Republican? Ayotte? Grassley? Heller?

[pbrower2a]

A large fraction of the SSM opponents in Congress support civil unions, and have done so for years.  You're welcome to start a brand new map about that, but integrating it into the existing map doesn't make much sense.

Civil unions are a compromise.

[pbrower2a]

Who cares about people who say they support civil unions? Bush said he supported it in 2004. The current pope said he supported it. Last refuge of the bigots.

The fact is civil unions are a worthwhile compromise in states where gay marriage itself won't fly anytime soon. Suppot for civil unions is uniformly stronger, and markedly so. Allowing CUs will also accelerate acceptance of gay marriage in many places where the great fear of the unknown and unintended consequences. It's pretty toug to argue that wen a state's recognized CUs for several years.

I'm not saying they should be pushed in states like RI & NJ where SSM seems on the neArhorizon, but in the majority of red and purple atates however.

It is much a step toward allowing same-sex marriage if enacted. People who see civil unions in action are much likely to take the next step. Utah is not going to go liberal for a long time, but if the LDS Church decides that gays and lesbians can live wholesome lives...

It's no longer an issue of convincing liberals. It's on to the conservatives. That is going to be on a personal basis.   

[pbrower2a]

A large fraction of the SSM opponents in Congress support civil unions, and have done so for years.  You're welcome to start a brand new map about that, but integrating it into the existing map doesn't make much sense.

Civil unions are a compromise.

Yes, a 3/5ths compromise.

...but the masters were voting, so to speak, on behalf of the slaves without asking the slaves wanted (which of course would have been freedom).

[pbrower2a]

Updated:

(Lautenberg deceased, Murkowski has switched)

Democrats:
49 48 Supporters
6 Opponents (Donnelly, Manchin, Heitkamp, Johnson, Nelson, Pryor)
3 Ambiguous (Casey, Hagan, Landrieu)

Republicans:
2 3 Supporters (Portman, Kirk, Murkowski)
41 40 Opponents
2 Ambiguous (Collins, the new R Senator in New Jersey -- but the Governor is not a homophobe and the appointee will be up for re-election in November 2013)

Notes:

• I counted Carper, Kaine, and Rockefeller as supporters; they haven't explicitly endorsed gay marriage, but have made statements that make their beliefs somewhat obvious (and all three signed onto an amicus brief arguing that DADT be overturned in full)
• Hagan and Tester both sound like they'd be obvious supporters of gay marriage if they didn't have reelection concerns
  
• Landrieu  is evolving!
• Casey looks to be in the middle of an "evolution" on the issue and is clearly hoping the Supreme Court solves everything so he won't have to make any difficult votes
• Donnelly sounds like he's beginning an "evolution" of his own
• Heitkamp would probably support gay marriage if she was from a liberal state; the other five Democratic opponents appear to genuinely oppose it on principle

Also here's a map!

30% shade means one Senator from the state has an ambiguous position. Gray states have one Senator in support and one opposed.