It's far too early to tell either way, but conservative enthusiasm doesn't have anywhere to go but down.
I tend to disagree -- attempts at gun control legislation especially will motivate them more. You don't think Romney was very good at turning them out? The Sandy Hook massacre came after the election. Maybe you think that President Obama went demagogue... but Republicans have a lost cause to defend.
But ultimately, if Obama's unpopular people will still blame him and vote Republican. And in 2012 Republicans didn't even attempt to get the votes of large segments of the country (Hispanics) and they've made it clear they won't be making that mistake again. And keep in mind that people tend to have a brighter opinion of their own individual Congressperson than Congress or whichever party they belong to as a whole, which is part of the GOP's inherent House advantage. [/quote]
Wishful thinking. You are stuck with him as President, and he has been adept at pushing public opinion when it seems to work.
That said, whites always turn out stronger for midterms so the GOP has a structural advantage.
True. Really, the way both Houses are set up right now helps the GOP; it's the EC that has the decisive Democratic advantage. And I'm pretty sure everyone turns out weaker in midterms; whites just don't turnout
as weaker as blacks and Latinos. I do think the midterm/Presidential electorate gap has been exaggerated recently because of the stark differences between 2008/2010 -- but 2006 was a midterm not long ago and Democrats did just fine, and the same except reversed goes for 2004.
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If Republicans are saddled with unpopular positions, they lose.
