how come presidents can't amass the popularity of governors (user search)
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  how come presidents can't amass the popularity of governors (search mode)
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Author Topic: how come presidents can't amass the popularity of governors  (Read 2513 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: February 20, 2013, 08:00:47 AM »

it seems that for gubernatorial offices, a governor, even if of another party that the state normally votes, can achieve immense popularity and wins by margins upward of 65-70 percent. Same thing goes for senator (although to less of an extent).

Could there ever be a presidential equivalent of Bill Haslam or Chris Christie - someone who can win with solid support, even from those who normally vote the other way?

States can be more monolithic in their population, and a Governor who could be extremely popular in his state might not be so popular nationwide. Jon Huntsman was extremely popular in Utah, but that could not make him a successful candidate nationwide. James DeMint is very popular among white people in South Carolina (which is enough to win big) but he would not be so popular in any part of the US except the South.

America has huge cultural divides, and political techniques that work in West Virginia do not work in very-different Virginia.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2013, 05:36:10 PM »

America has huge cultural divides, and political techniques that work in West Virginia do not work in very-different Virginia.

This. America is not monolith, while many states are.

Exactly - the cultural diversity across the country is far greater than the cultural diversity within any single state.

Is this really true, or are we just biased to think that bigger = more diverse? New York, for instance, is probably more diverse than the US if you're looking at divisions of proportionate size.

Cities are generally more diverse than rural areas. Thus a city like Providence RI or Concord NH can have considerable diversity.

Do you remember Sarah Palin's "Real America" speech in Chillicothe, Ohio? Delivered with apparent impunity about 50 miles from the "Sodom and Gomorrah" that rustics think Columbus is, it praised the traditional values of rural America while castigating urban differences from a 'wholesome' America. Urban and suburban Americans don't want to be reminded that they are a bunch of perverts and freaks, especially if they aren't perverts and freaks.

Chillicothe is (1) within the Columbus, Ohio TV market; considering what she was running for, (2) it is also within the zone of coverage of the TV and radio news coverage of Columbus, Ohio.  Her spiel went nationwide. Maybe if she had seen the stylized numbers "4", "6", and "10" on the microphones and asked what city those microphones lead to she would have never made such a speech, or at least toned it down. It didn't play well in Columbus or in any other large American city.   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2013, 04:51:37 PM »

Don't you mean, "how come President Obama can't amass the unpopularity of governors"?

Getting elected Governor of some states is fairly easy if one is the pick of some powerful machine. One says the right things to urban crowds or to special interests, and one gets elected. Governors so elected may well fit the political culture of a State, get along well, not stir up problems, and get their political careers set in stone. They might be hacks, but they are the right hacks.

Governors who enter office with a desire to make sweeping reforms (not all reforms are good -- just ask about Rick Scott and Rick Snyder) step on well-entrenched special interests and those special interests bite back. Those with a missionary desire to reshape the political climate of their states discover to their surprise that the people don't want their values changed.  

Some are just simply incompetent (Brownback, R-KS). Some get caught in an economic downturn that makes governing a difficult process of imposing budgetary cutbacks even upon supporters. Some who stick around long enough (Perry, R-TX) find that voters increasingly notice their deficiencies. Some (Corzine, D-NJ) fall far short of their promises. Some (Blagojevich, Crook-IL; Sanford, AWOL-SC) do something so egregious that they become laughing stocks or jailbirds.  

Were I to give advice to a Governor, I would say

1.  Act in accordance with the Cook PVI of the State.  
2.  Don't sell out to out-of-state interests.
3.  Ignore ideological think tanks.
4.  Act with integrity.
5.  Don't use inflammatory rhetoric about opposing interests.
6.  Quit while you are ahead.
7.  Don't try to change the political climate of the state.

No particular order here.

 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2013, 06:38:39 PM »


1.  Act in accordance with the Cook PVI of the State.  
2.  Don't sell out to out-of-state interests.
3.  Ignore ideological think tanks.
4.  Act with integrity.
5.  Don't use inflammatory rhetoric about opposing interests.
6.  Quit while you are ahead.
7.  Don't try to change the political climate of the state.


Rick Perry has violated most of these and still managed to run Texas for longer than Khrushchev ran the Kremlin. He tried to railroad a major infrastructure project through the Legislature in the early 2000s that would have awarded contracts to a Spanish construction firm; that and his insistence on everyone's daughters getting vaccinated for HPV after Merck persuaded him suggest Perry will sell out to anyone's interest, in or out of state. Ignore ideological think tanks? There is Michael Quinn Sullivan, Texas's version of Grover Norquist; and the Texas Public Policy Foundation, sometimes derisively called the Texas Perry Policy Foundation.

Khrushchev was not freely elected, and he did not lose power as the result of any free election.

Perry has gotten away with such stuff because the Democratic Party is a wreck in Texas. Texas is a plutocracy, and Perry obeys what counts.   

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Perry has a machine behind him, and machine hacks don't have to be astute pols. They just have to be puppets. Of course if Democrats can put up a strong challenge, Perry is done.
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