The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

November 15-17, 2013
Survey of 952 Montana voters

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MT_111913.pdf


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

President Obama has been in worse political shape. From a now-retired thread:

Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« Reply #5754 on: August 17, 2010, 11:28:51 am »


badtimeforobamaapprovalaug2010

Key:
<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

The color scheme is different, but you get the idea.

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=1978


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Florida voters disapprove 57 - 40 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, matching his all-time worst score, a 57 - 39 percent disapproval, in a September 22, 2011, Quinnipiac University poll.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1980


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/


Really awful when one considers that this is his home state. This is consistent with a 40% approval rate nationwide.


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

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If this were a year before the election then one could expect the Republican nominee to win about a 40-state landslide. 



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

If this were a year before the election then one could expect the Republican nominee to win about a 40-state landslide.

Well, no, because the Republicans would actually have to campaign.

Pennsylvania was close to being the tipping-point state. Incumbent Governors and Senators on the average gain 6%  from approval rating to the vote share in a binary election. President Obama would lose roughly 51-49 as an average campaigner against an average challenger in Pennsylvania... and he would have to win the state by about 2% to have a reasonable chance of winning reelection.

That said,

He's back up to 46% again on Rasmussen. For a Democrat, that's not exactly a losing formula.

   

That translates to a 52% vote share nationwide based on the "6% gain rule". 
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

[pbrower2a]

That translates to a 52% vote share nationwide based on the "6% gain rule". 
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

So he'd win with a greater percentage than he did in 2012?

I'd need some corroboration on that poll, as it is an outlier. President Obama got about 52% of the share of votes cast for him or Romney, which is good enough for me.

... Many people were convinced that when the President's approval rating was 47% or so last winter that he was going to lose. What those people ignored was that

(1) President Obama was going to campaign
(2) opponents could make catcalls about him with impunity and drag his approval ratings down -- but once the campaign began in earnest those people were obliged to come up with alternatives... or lose.
(3) President Obama is an effective campaigner.

No pol looks effective when he is on the defensive even for something trivial. Given a scale of 1 (a fashion failure like mismatched shoes) and 10 (being caught on tape committing a crime) this website glitch is something like a "2". Get him off the defensive and his approval ratings will show it.   

 

[pbrower2a]

OH:

President Barack Obama's job approval rating among Ohio voters is a negative 34 - 61 percent, his lowest score in any Quinnipiac University poll nationally or in any state, according to a poll released today.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1985

President Obama's Approval

President Barack Obama gets a split 47 - 49 percent job approval rating, near his all-time New York State low of 45 - 49 percent in an August 12, 2011, Quinnipiac University poll. The president is down 13 - 87 percent among Republicans and 35 - 61 percent among independent voters, while Democrats approve 81 - 15 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=1983

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/27/us-usa-iran-poll-idUSBRE9AQ01420131127

In case the poll numbers improve -- you will know why.

[pbrower2a]

Well yeah, I don't think anyone is meaning to compare the scale or impact of the events. It's just that the slip is similar. Some folks think the numbers will stay where they're at because I think what we're seeing now with Obama is very much in line with the seeds of doubt Romney planted last year. It wasn't enough to lose Obama the election because people trusted him and wanted to give him a chance, but the warnings ("weak manager," "poor business sense," "in over his head," etc.) are looking a lot more credible. That's all. People have erred on the side of giving Obama the benefit of the doubt, but somewhere along the line over the last two months, there's been a straw that broke that camel's back. At least that's how I see it. Maybe I am being too optimistic; who knows?

After the catastrophe that was Dubya -- and face it, by any objective other than perhaps sharing an ideology he was grossly inadequate to meet the challenges of the Presidency -- Americans have become fussier about anything that the government does. People now realize that policies can foster bad business practices that bring ruin, that patriotic fervor can be manipulated to bring about military debacles, and that it is possible to mismanage the response to natural disasters. People now realize that dishonesty, inattention, and cronyism don't sort themselves out in American politics on their own.

Mitt Romney was not alone in sowing seeds of doubt about President Obama. The entire Republican Party did that effectively and with relish. So did the shadowy groups that want American government to facilitate the economic  interests of the richest and most powerful people in America instead of the 'losers' that the rest of us are -- Americans for Prosperity, Crossroads America, Club for Growth, Citizens United, the National Chamber of Commerce, etc. Such groups believe that wealth and power for elites is the only measure of political success.  These entities seek an American political order that puts profits first -- forever. They want George W. Bush without the laziness and intellectual mediocrity.

It is a great fallacy that government must be 'run like a business' and that the only people who can run government effectively are businessmen. Business as a rule has a narrow, but vital role in creating wealth and generating income for owners, and to those ends it must ordinarily optimize revenues and costs while maintaining some public good will. (If a business is extremely profitable but unable to keep public trust, then it is a criminal enterprise). Government cannot so operate. Nobody wants the government to maximize tax revenues while minimizing public services, and nobody wants it to decide to release dangerous criminals because of the cost of keeping them in prison -- or lose wars because military success is more costly than defeat.

We have generally not elected businesspeople as President. The most common occupation leading to the Presidency is "attorney". Those former businessmen who have been even partly-effective Presidents have been demonstrably successful at something else. If profit-and-loss responsibilities were the sole measure of political acumen, then maybe we would elect captains of cruise ships as President.

Successful politics implies the building of trust with people who don't give it easily. People who dislike the food at a restaurant need never go to that restaurant again; after all, there are other restaurants. When government fails few of us can simply find another country.
 

[pbrower2a]

CA (Field Poll)

51-43

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2451.pdf

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_CO_120613.pdf


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

The Colorado poll isn't too bad, considering PPP overpolled Romney supporters - again.

Easy to do -- by not polling Spanish speakers who have strongly rejected the GOP.

[pbrower2a]

NJ going neutral (Monmouth poll):

47-47

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http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/48ff6339-16b2-426b-a1fc-809970b0c940.pdf



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

NC (PPP) of course negative:

44-55

http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/12/10/3449106/gop-senate-race-jumbled-tillis.html

No change.

MI negative:

47-51

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MI_121013.pdf

CA now neutral:

All adults

51% Approve
45% Disapprove
  4% Don’t know

Registered voters

48% Approve
48% Disapprove
  4% Don’t know

Likely voters

48% Approve
50% Disapprove
  2% Don’t know

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama1213.pdf

Going with registered voters for CA.

Liberals and secular humanists might want to get their passports ready and learn some foreign language at a level stronger than that of a  phrasebook if they want to live in a free country after January 2017.


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

NC (PPP) of course negative:

44-55

http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/12/10/3449106/gop-senate-race-jumbled-tillis.html

No change.

MI negative:

47-51

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MI_121013.pdf

CA now neutral:

All adults

51% Approve
45% Disapprove
  4% Don’t know

Registered voters

48% Approve
48% Disapprove
  4% Don’t know

Likely voters

48% Approve
50% Disapprove
  2% Don’t know

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama1213.pdf

Going with registered voters for CA.

Liberals and secular humanists might want to get their passports ready and learn some foreign language at a level stronger than that of a  phrasebook if they want to live in a free country after January 2017.


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Pew Poll: Obama's approval rebounds, up to 45-49

http://www.people-press.org/2013/12/10/obama-job-rating-regains-some-ground-but-2013-has-taken-a-toll/

When the opposition Party has no program other than to resist the President on everything and render him politically impotent in the expectation that the public will eventually give in and accept its extreme agenda, nobody achieves anything.

The President shows that he practically needs an active campaign to keep his approval numbers up. If you don't believe me, then watch this:

http://www.barackobama.com/president-obama-mandela-speech/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=obama&utm_content=1+-+This+ones+worth+watching+and+passing+alo&utm_campaign=em13_x_OFA_20131210_x_x_jc_12act&source=em13_x_OFA_20131210_x_x_jc_12act

He must appeal to conscience, and he has always done far better in winning support from mass audiences. Winning over elected Republicans who get their instructions from the Koch syndicate is as impossible as speaking to statues.

[pbrower2a]

TN (Vanderbilt Poll):

28% approve

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60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

St. Leo University, Florida:

approve 44%, disapprove 53%


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

This montage

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could hurt the approval ratings of President Obama while doing nothing to any Democrat. We all understand the dynamic.

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_KY_1217.pdf

The latter will be far more important in November.





60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

We probably won' t see any effects of the change in approval ratings upon statewide polls for at least a week.

For now, call this my last guess of 2013 with President Obama at his worst, possibly ever --


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Obama's national numbers on both Gallup and Rasmussen have rebounded, even looking at the weekly Gallup numbers.

The map should redden significantly in January.

[pbrower2a]

PPP resumes polling this weekend. States for polling may include Florida, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Utah and Virginia. - See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/01/exciting-changes-for-2014.html#sthash.5edpdtuP.dpuf

At this moment Oregon leads.

No idea on Quinnipiac -- just expect its usual states getting polled. 

Presidential approval seems to have gone nearly even in some nationwide polls, and much of the map is consistent with the President having approval ratings near 40%. California even? That could persist because California rarely gets polled.