Excerpts:
1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin.
[P]olling indicates a widespread lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s core demographic support due to high unemployment, disappointment with his policies and performance, and the lack of novelty in voting for a black candidate now that he has already served as president.
Manifestly obsolete. Lack of novelty? The President is running on his record, and incumbent pols who can run on their records almost invariably win. Dubya, a really-awful President, won on his and won.
Well, at least you aren't using 2010 numbers.
...but almost always until recently ahead of Romney and that is what counts. The preponderance of polls suggest that President Obama is significantly ahead. For the election to go to Romney, about everything must go his way until Election Day -- one of those a calamity involving the President.
The 'undecided' vote either fails to vote or drifts ineffectively toward the eventual loser -- except during a collapse by the eventual loser.
A 100% break of the undecided toward the challenger? No.
