If the first states KY and IN are not called right away, Romney is toast.
They will be, so don't worry. It's not a conspiracy theory, it's true.
Election 2000
Ariz, Bush by 7 CNN took 2 hrs, 51 mins
Mich, Gore by 4, CNN took just 1 hr, 24
Arkansas, Bush by 6, CNN took 3 hrs, 42 mins
Penn, Gore by 4, CNN too 1 hr, 24 mins
Tennessee, Bush by 3, CNN took 3 hrs, 3 mins
Minnesota, Gore by 2, CNN too 1 hr, 25 mins
West Virginia, Bush by 6, CNN took 3 hours, 15 mins
Washington, Gore by 5, CNN took 1 hr, 8 mins..
Shall I go on?
Have you ever considered that some states count slower or faster than others? Or some states report more uniformly than others? Or the fact that Bush won many traditionally solid dem states in 2000 (Arkansas, West Virginia) made existing turnout models (which these calls are based on) not as easily applicable as in places that were traditionally swing states (Pennsylvania, Michigan)?
Nah, some giant mainstream media conspiracy to depress Republican turnout in Alaska and Hawaii is obviously a more sensible explanation.
Ohio is one of the fastest of electorally-large states to count its vote. In 2008 the networks called it around 9:15 PM despite it being decided by a razor-thin margin. In 2000 and 2004 much the same happened. Roughly one hour and forty-five minutes the state was called. That is swift, considering that Ohio either has been or could have been the deciding state. Contrast Indiana, which counts its vote very slowly.
I suspect that the media are slow to call any state expected to be close or that is acting in a way uncharacteristic of the political history of the state. Note how slowly the media called Florida (2000 was a warning) and especially Virginia. Media were not going to call any state that hadn't gone for a Democratic nominee for President for the Democrat until the state was an absolute clinch.
2000? The media found it hard to believe that Al Gore couldn't win Tennessee (his home state!) in a close election, or Arkansas, where one reasonably expected a residual influence of Bill Clinton. Before 2000 it was generally known that a Democratic nominee could not win without those two states.
So I expect that states that were close in 2008 will not be called early unless they are blowouts. If President Obama should be winning Ohio by 8% or so, then you can expect Ohio to be an unusually-quick call. If he is ahead in Michigan by only 4% according to the vote and the exit polls, then expect Michigan to be a slow call.
The media might wish that the electoral results keep people in suspense so that people not seek out sports, sitcoms, or old movies... but there is a point at which the suspense is unjustifiable. Up 4% with 98% of all precincts in creates only one question -- why isn't the state called?
