um... that just isn't true. Any of Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, or Nevada will do. And if Romney can break into Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, that won't even matter.
Nothing indicates that Mitt Romney is a more astute politician than Dubya was. Cultural patterns in the Northern states have not suddenly become more amenable to Republican pols. The Tea Party is a political flash-in-the-pan, its electoral success leading to further erosion of respect for Congress.
To win back the North the Republicans must win back the sorts of voters best described as 'Rockefeller Republicans' whose politicians included the likes of Norm Coleman, Gordon Smith, Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, Arlen Specter, Jim Jeffords, and Lincoln Chaffee who were nearly libertarian on economic issues and libertarian on personal rights. The Hard Right offers nothing to them that Barack Obama doesn't offer but would impose specific superstitions and harsh repression as well as (at the least) cultural bigotry.
Mitt Romney must move to the center -- but the Hard Right won't let him. I see him vulnerable to the sort of assault on his business ethics (John Corzine would have the same trouble if he were the Democratic nominee) that Republicans used against John Kerry -- if the "flip-flop". "Multiple Choice", or "Etch-a-Sketch" argument either isn't used first or fails.
