Current polling, Obama vs. Romney

[pbrower2a]

You forgot to count Rasmussen in Wisconsin.

It is inconsistent with other polls, including Rasmussen polls, within a week.

[pbrower2a]

Nobody reasonably believes that President Obama is going to be close to losing New Jersey.

[pbrower2a]

Nobody reasonably believes that President Obama is going to be close to losing New Jersey.

Nobody reasonably believes that he will win the state by 27%....except maybe you.

My model does not distinguish between a 12% lead and a 40% lead which does not matter in a winner-take-all system. Note that it is possible for the President to win Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes and lose Arkansas and its 6 electoral votes by a larger margin and end up with 20 electoral votes. 

[pbrower2a]

We ask America (R) --

Obama up 1 in Iowa, down 2 in Michigan. Averaged with Rasmussen in Michigan, replaces old poll in Iowa.

 

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

Montana, Rasmussen... Romney up 9. Washington, PPP... Obama up 13 (and even if averaged with the Elway poll it would still be Obama +10.5.

No new map needed.

[pbrower2a]

Marquette Law School, WI -- Obama up 6. The Rasmussen poll must have been an outlier.

 

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

BIG ONE -- FLORIDA (Quinnipiac). Obama up 4. At the margin of error, but up 7 from the last Q poll, which is a huge shift. That could be the news cycle.  

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

NE -- Obama down 12, which is less than the 15% he lost the state by in 2008. If he were down by 16% I would have to assign all districts to Romney... but a 12% margin suggests that one of the districts is a pure toss-up.  That may be charitable to Romney.

NH -- Obama up only 5%, according to Rasmussen. This is consistent with Obama up 8% in Michigan.  

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

NE -- Obama down 12, which is less than the 15% he lost the state by in 2008. If he were down by 16% I would have to assign all districts to Romney... but a 12% margin suggests that one of the districts is a pure toss-up.  That may be charitable to Romney.

NH -- Obama up only 5%, according to Rasmussen. This is consistent with Obama up 8% in Michigan.  

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

OH, PPP -- Obama up 3
VA, Old Dominion -- Obama up 7
VA, We Ask America -- Obama down 5
UT, Dan Jones, Romney up about 40 (no surprise there)

"We Ask America" shows no crosstabs -- beware. 

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

OR, PPP - Obama up 8. Not a blowout.
NC, Rasmussen -- Romney up 3, which is far too close for GOP comfort.

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

Light blue is not a favourable colour for pbrower. You should know that.

I recently had it on Florida, Iowa, and Ohio and have it on Arizona and North Carolina. Of course, I would really love it on Texas!

...I told you that I didn't like the dark orange (60% saturation) and replaced it with gray.

[pbrower2a]

Three Q polls:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1767

Recent poor polls for the President offered by organizations that seem to be consistent R hacks in IA and MI and occasional R hacks in WI now seem out of line. It could have been a bad news cycle. Disclosures on Bain Capital refute the contention that Mitt Romney has the sort of expertise in private industry that would make him a good leader for America as a whole. It may be possible that some private-sector experience might make someone a good President, but I have yet to see what sort of experience would be relevant. Maybe "self-employed long-haul trucker" would allow one to know how the economy really works to a better extent than "corporate raider".  

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything. This category is now dormant.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen, AZ -- Romney up over 10%, in case you believe it.

PPP, MA -- Obama up at least 20% in MA  

Isn't Ohio tied at 49-49% a piece per Nate Silver? What is Ohio still doing in the Ohio column? Its a pure toss-up right now.

The most recent credible poll has President Obama up 7%... a bit high unless you believe that Romney has no chance to win a state that relies heavily on the auto industry.

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- Last poll discredited (like anything from We Ask America)

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

Marist surveys: MI, NH, NC.

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- Last poll discredited (like anything from We Ask America)

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

Fresh game tomorrow. No, I don't mean something recently hunted down.

[pbrower2a]

Alabama, Capital Surveys: Romney up 15. About as I would expect. Reversion to the mean?

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- Last poll discredited (like anything from We Ask America)

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

This source

http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2012/06/poll_mitt_romney_leads_preside.html

suggests that

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A pollster for a teachers' union lobby would likely understate GOP support in a state. It still corroborates that Mitt Romney would clearly win the state, and my model does not distinguish between an 11% lead and a 70% lead. My map shows the same color saturation for Arizona and Utah -- and Arizona is going to have a result closer to that of Colorado than that of Utah.

[pbrower2a]

Civitas, NC. I don't fully trust this pollster, but PPP will be polling NC this weekend, so this won't last.
 

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- Last poll discredited (like anything from We Ask America)

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

Field, California. Obama up 18. Nothing new or surprising.

[pbrower2a]

There was a FL poll that had Obama up 1.

We Ask America. Methodological problems have been identified. That's why I have Iowa in yellow -- it had President Obama up 1 in Iowa and that was an improvement (for Obama) over an earlier Rasmussen poll.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Virginia -- Obama up 8 in a binary matchup with Mitt Romney, a disaster in itself for a Republican in a State that has gone for the Democratic nominee only three times since World War II (1948, 1964, and 2008). With Virgil Goode on the ballot (I understand that he will be) President Obama beats Romney by 14%, so what I show is charitable to Mitt Romney. At this point I am doing only binary matchups.

PPP, North Carolina -- Obama up 1%. Mitt Romney must win this state firmly to have a reasonable chance. The above two states suggest that in a little less than four months from the election, President Obama is about where he was in November 2008.

...Goode would be interesting in states other than Virginia. He suggests cultural ties to the conservative-leaning parts of the Mountain South that neither Obama nor Romney has. I'm not saying that he would win any electoral votes, but I can imagine him swinging a state like Kentucky... or Georgia, Missouri, or North Carolina.
 

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- Last poll discredited (like anything from We Ask America)

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

There was a FL poll that had Obama up 1.

Rasmussen has a virtual tie, but it is a 1% Romney lead. I trust that far more than I trust We Ask America, so it appears here. I suspect that Florida will not likely be called before states on the West Coast. 
 

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- Last poll discredited (like anything from We Ask America)

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

[pbrower2a]

Copious polls out today.

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/07/11/pa-nm/

Pennsylvania

Obama 47
Romney 40

New Mexico

Obama 51
Romney 40

They look about right, except that others have shredded this pollster. As it turns out that is what I already have for Pennsylvania and New Mexico so at most they would be corroboration.

(Partisan poll for Obama Super Pac)

http://www.prioritiesusaaction.org/blog/2012-07-mitt-romneys-central-qualification-becomes-a-signifi

Colorado: Obama 49 - Romney 42
Florida: Obama 48 - Romney 44
Ohio: Obama 48 - Romney 41
Pennsylvania: Obama 49 - Romney 40
Virginia: Obama 46 - Romney 43

Blatantly partisan pollster even if it basically confirms what I suspect.  If I accept this I would also have to accept polls from entities related to groups associated with the GOP, Karl Rove, or Grover Norquist.

I am not using them.

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin, PPP:

President Obama is up 6% against Mitt Romney with a generic VP choice. He's up 1% if Romney selects Rep. Paul Ryan for VP. Until we see Mitt Romney's VP nominee I am going with the 1% margin; I think that Mitt Romney is desperate enough to try to win Wisconsin with such a choice if it is available. For that reason I am going with the Romney-Ryan margin until I see otherwise. But I am using an dagger(†) for that.

Note well that Congressional Representatives have poor records as VP nominees. Walter Mondale lost New York State with Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 (although there were only five states of 49 that Mondale lost by a larger percentage), and Jack Kemp failed to deliver New York State in 1996.  Kemp was a fine politician, really.

Whether Paul Ryan would be a good choice for swinging even Indiana, let alone Ohio, is a different question altogether.
 

under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll*.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- Last poll discredited (like anything from We Ask America)

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

*All states (and DC) in this category were overwhelming Obama wins in 2008 -- Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, and Rhode Island -- and they are likely to act similarly in 2012.   Gray looks infinitely better than dark shades of orange or yellow.

† Wisconsin -- about a 6% margin (40% saturation) if Mitt Romney chooses anyone other than Paul Ryan. The dagger does not show up as such on the map... but something does.