This state is going to give Republicans probleMs come next year.
Only if Cain is the nominee.
Agree. In the end, if Romney wins New Hampshire, he's probably also won Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina. Add Indiana's strange 2008 fluke and it's victory.
Mitt Romney has decided that New Hampshire is effectively his home state. The Favorite Son advantage is about 10%. If he loses every state that Al Gore won in 2000 (almost certain as things look now) but wins every state that Obama lost by at least 8% except Arizona then President Obama has 253 electoral votes.
President Obama wins with
Florida outright
Ohio outright
Georgia and anything else (even a district in Nebraska) -- Georgia alone would bring a tie
North Carolina and any other state
Arizona, Indiana, or Virginia and any state other than Montana (including each other)
Missouri and any state other than Montana or Nevada (MO + NV is a tie, so MO + NV and a district of Nebraska would be an Obama win)
Colorado and Nevada and any other state
Herman Cain does not win New Hampshire. That means that Barack Obama would win every state that either Gore or Kerry ever won and starts with 257 electoral votes and wins outright with
Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, or Virginia -- each wins outright
Arizona, Indiana, or Missouri and any other state
Colorado and Nevada together (probably the easiest for President Obama)
Mitt Romney chose his home state well. That may not be enough.
