It is somewhat funny but I'm almost under the impression democrats think "Oh well, Obama is a good campaigner and will win because of it" under any circumstance. It's ridiculous.
Such is my belief, contrary to yours. President Obama is more like Ronald Reagan than like Jimmy Carter in methods and effectiveness. He cannot win a 400+ landslide except in the wake of an utter collapse of the Republican nominee, but he would rather win 280 electoral votes and keep Democratic control of the Senate and win back the House than win 380 electoral votes with the Republicans in command of one (let alone both) Houses of Congress.
I also look at the weaknesses of the GOP field and see vulnerabilities in even the strongest Republican candidate. It is not enough to say "I want more prosperity"; even Commies say that. Does anyone here trust the Commies?
The President must still avoid scandal, diplomatic and military debacles, and another economic meltdown. The window of opportunity for such to the benefit of a Republican nominee is closing a little every day. Republicans need to offer a coherent plan for economic growth that does not offend too many sensibilities, and the window of opportunity for such closes a little every day.
The only sure things are that the President is a fine campaigner, that many people will never vote for any black man, and that he isn't going to become white. He has a good campaign apparatus to take out of mothballs, and he coordinates it well with the most reliable source of support for Democratic pols at every level -- the labor unions that have everything to lose in the event of the big gains that Republicans seek. Those of you who have seen and heard Ronald Reagan surely need recognize a glaring similarity -- that both politicians are experts at keeping on message and keeping the message simple.
Of course Obama's mythical skills will save him. They're legendary.
It is the not-so-mythical abilities of the President that will cause him to win. One -- his ability to coordinate with labor leaders who perceive that they have everything to lose, suggest this as the minimum for the President:
For speaking out of both sides of his mouth on public-sector unions, Mitt Romney loses Ohio. President Obama has been consistent; everyone knows where he stands.
