Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[pbrower2a]

PPP. Alaska:

-Public opinion in Alaska just continues to move further and further in support of gay marriage. 52% of voters favor it now to 43% who are opposed. Those numbers have basically flipped from last February when the numbers were 43% in support and 51% opposed. Voters under 65 support it 55/41, with only seniors remaining opposed at 39/54. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/05/alaska-miscellany.html#more

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Light blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

A federal judge just gave the boot to Oregon's SSM ban. I'm not predicting whether there will be an appeal...

Knowing that there is widespread support for SSM in Oregon, I am going to color Oregon dark blue with the expectation that it neither the Governor nor the State legislature will even try to  appeal. Have a little patience. Pale blue is for states in which a state has majority opposition to SSM (AR) or in which such is assumed (ID); dark blue is for states in which an unpopular SSM has been struck down by the courts.   

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.


Light blue )20% saturation) -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal
dark blue -- same-sex marriage law struck down, but documented plurality support for SSM.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

If the Detroit Tigers are up 3-0 in the World Series with two outs in the NL Champion's ninth inning with the Tigers up 12-0 in the game, I wait for the last out to declare the Tigers the World Champions. 

Orange instead of blue? OK. I endorse and accept that.

[pbrower2a]

Oregon ban has been overturned and does not look to be stayed or appealed, so I don't see any reason to not make it be simply white. Also I'm changing light blue to orange because it just blends in too well with the greens to stand out.

I'm going to put Oregon back in pale blue until the State says that it will drop appeals. Such will likely not take long. I look forward to putting Oregon (and other states!) in white. I insist upon the last out or for the clock to run out even in a blowout victory

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal
Light blue (20% saturation) -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal unlikely to happen. Polling shows support for SSM.


Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Oregon ban has been overturned and does not look to be stayed or appealed, so I don't see any reason to not make it be simply white. Also I'm changing light blue to orange because it just blends in too well with the greens to stand out.

I'm going to put Oregon back in pale blue until the State says that it will drop appeals. Such will likely not take long. I look forward to putting Oregon (and other states!) in white. I insist upon the last out or for the clock to run out even in a blowout victory

They said back in February they weren't going to defend the case, which they didn't.  I see absolutely no reason to think they would at thirteenth hour decide to appeal a case they didn't bother to defend.

OK. That clears things.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Orange, since it looks like there will be an appeal from the Governor instead of the AG.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

SSM may have public support in Pennsylvania -- but the embattled Governor looks like a dead-end defender of any right-wing agenda.

I'd like to say "going down faster than a man being wrestled by a Great Dane".

More and more States will have their SSM bans struck down. It could as easily be Alabama as Colorado on Wednesday. It will all likely be decided in the Supreme Court.

[pbrower2a]

Shouldn't Utah and Oklahoma be orange since they're also in limbo?

Under appeal, with SSM applications are neither offered nor accepted. So it is in Michigan.

Polls for SSM are relevant because an initiative to allow SSM might pass in Michigan, making appeals and stays moot... but such would be highly unlikely in Utah, Idaho, Arizona, or Oklahoma.

Great news on Pennsylvania! 

[pbrower2a]

It depends upon how far in the State appellate system the appeals go. States largely define what marriages are lawful, with the obvious limitation of Loving vs. Virginia. Of course if an appeal goes to the US Supreme Court and the Supreme Court decides that SSM is legal in one State that resists it, then SSM is probably legal in all states irrespective of statutory law in the state.

If you want to figure why Corbett decided not to appeal -- maybe he did not want an appeal to go to the US Supreme Court. Corbett may be an awful Governor, but even he knows that pushing for some lost cause in his state might 'wreck' things for the rest of the country. 

[pbrower2a]

The Michigan State legislature is debating an anti-discrimination law with respect to homosexuality. Big Business wants it to pass, so don't be surprised to find a Democratic-libertarian coalition pass it. I don't know whether SSM is in the package.

[pbrower2a]

WISCONSIN!

http://m.channel3000.com/court-overturns-samesex-marriage-ban/26370048

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

There were some who got married before a stay was issued in some of those states, but if you try to get a new SSM in them today, you can't.

That still doesn't explain the map. Same-sex marriages were granted during brief periods in Utah, Arkansas, and Michigan (and currently Wisconsin). Idaho has never issued a marriage license to a same-sex couple, which makes it no legally different from states like Texas or Oklahoma, where bans have also been struck down in federal court. Other than Wisconsin, which has yet to reach the appellate level, none of those states are currently issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. I don't see what makes Idaho and Arkansas unique.

Brief windows of opportunity for SSM  that have not been reopened do not count. Neither does the simple acceptance of SSM contracted in another state or on places of federal authority (military bases and Indian reservations).

Permission to do SSM can be established by

(1) legislation authorizing it, including initiative or referendum
(2) an interpretation that the state law on marriage does not prohibit SSM)
(3) a state ban being voided by a judicial decision that the State does not appeal
(4) a state ban being voided but appealed, but the appeal being denied
(5) state bans being voided by a decision of the Supreme Court analogous to Loving vs. Virginia  that applies to all states.

All imply that the state permits SSM. States in white so far have legalized SSM through (1), (2), or (3). No state has yet gone through (4), and I cannot predict when any state will do so.

Orange implies that an appeal is in process and that the state is understood to be unfavorable to SSM. Blue implies that an appeal is in process and that the state is understood to be amenable to SSM through polling. Both colors implies that marriage licenses for same-sex couples are not underway.

Others are either gray (no polling) red (polling shows greater opposition than support), yellow (equal support and disapproval), or green (SSM higher approval than disapproval.

States in reddish shades are going to approve SSM only through a judicial decision that nobody can now predict. They will not enact SSM with the legislatures that they now have or are likely to ever have, and any initiative or referendum allowing SSM is sure to fail.  States in green could approve SSM either through specific legislation or an initiative/referendum. At that there is a huge difference between Indiana and North Carolina.

Indiana? Sure. Big Business wants it to pass even in that very conservative state -- because it is good for business.           

[pbrower2a]

Republicans would lose the issue if they were to put it on the ballot as initiative or referendum  in Michigan or Wisconsin. In recent years they would put it on the ballot to bring out the Fundamentalist vote

[pbrower2a]

Except for New Mexico, every state with SSM voted for Kerry in 2004. Wisconsin and Michigan seem to be the only Kerry states without it.

Iowa voted for Dubya in 2004.

Gore won Iowa and New Mexico but lost New Hampshire. Kerry won New Hampshire but lost Iowa and New Mexico.

[pbrower2a]

Ok then:

No state that voted for Bush twice has SSM. Is that better?

Yes. But Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia are good candidates to legalize SSM.

[pbrower2a]

You can change Indiana to white now

What happened?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/25/indiana-gay-marriage_n_5529774.html

[pbrower2a]

Indiana -- subject to appeal, and the Attorney General says that he will appeal the ruling. Utah -- appeal failed, so it goes white.

The legal process works. I expect to see some more appeals implode. Utah was the first. 

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Proposed new category -- for states in which, as in Utah, the state's appeal is vacated.

Rationale: A Supreme Court ruling is final and absolute.  If the Supreme Court refuses to hear the appeal, then the state goes white. 

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Tan -- a state's appeal vacated at the Federal District Court, next step the US Supreme Court

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM


65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

 Indiana reverts to light green due to the stay. I will show my rationale for keeping Utah in the tan category.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Tan -- a state's appeal vacated at the Federal District Court, next step the US Supreme Court

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM


65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

I really don't see the need for yet another category as we mark time, but if you must, then Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma should also be covered as they too are part of the 10th Circuit. (As is New Mexico, but SSM is already recognized there.)

]

That still doesn't explain the map. Same-sex marriages were granted during brief periods in Utah, Arkansas, and Michigan (and currently Wisconsin). Idaho has never issued a marriage license to a same-sex couple, which makes it no legally different from states like Texas or Oklahoma, where bans have also been struck down in federal court. Other than Wisconsin, which has yet to reach the appellate level, none of those states are currently issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. I don't see what makes Idaho and Arkansas unique.

Brief windows of opportunity for SSM  that have not been reopened do not count. Neither does the simple acceptance of SSM contracted in another state or on places of federal authority (military bases and Indian reservations).

Permission to do SSM can be established by

(1) legislation authorizing it, including initiative or referendum
(2) an interpretation that the state law on marriage does not prohibit SSM)
(3) a state ban being voided by a judicial decision that the State does not appeal
(4) a state ban being voided but appealed, but the appeal being denied
(5) state bans being voided by a decision of the Supreme Court analogous to Loving vs. Virginia  that applies to all states.

All imply that the state permits SSM. States in white so far have legalized SSM through (1), (2), or (3). No state has yet gone through (4), and I cannot predict when any state will do so.


     

Utah is now in Stage 4, if not through it. The Tenth District Court has yet to set aside any appeal from other states within the district. They are different, as I can imagine SSM passing through legislation or initiative/referendum in Colorado before any final decision is made.

The courts have been deciding on specific statutes; unless someone can prove that two statutes are identical in wording, I cannot assume that appeals involving Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, or Wyoming -- yet.

It is still possible that the Tenth District Court will uphold the Utah ban, which would render the new category (in which I have only Utah) irrelevant.

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The 10th Circuit holding was not predicated upon any particular clause of the Utah law, but was a generic holding that applies to any state.  I'll repeat, if you must create another distinction on the map to cover Utah, it applies to all 10th Circuit states that do not already recognize SSM.

Now it is possible that in those states where different qualifications exist for males and females in who may marry, that there will arise a lawsuit if a marriage could go ahead if one was male and one was female, but is blocked because both partners don't meet the requirements for their particular gender but would if one of them were held to the requirements of the other gender, but that is such a narrow restriction, I wouldn't even consider it germane to the broader question of whether a state must generally recognize same-sex marriages.

Colorado is so different from the other states in the Tenth districts that it could either legislate an SSM ban out of existence or abolish it as the result of a referendum or initiative. I doubt that Governor Hickenlooper would ever seek a stay of any appeal.

But that is moot if the Tenth District Court vacates all SSM bans. I would not be surprised to see Colorado to abandon the SSM ban before almost any other state.

[pbrower2a]

Two in three Oklahomans oppose gay marriage with areas of greater support for the issue found among Democrats, younger voters and urban area dwellers, according to an Oklahoma Poll. The poll, among 393 likely voters statewide, found that 66 percent answered that they either strongly oppose or somewhat oppose allowing same-sex couples to marry.

The poll found that 58.1 percent of those asked said they strongly opposed gay marriage, while 8.1 percent were somewhat opposed to the issue. Opposition to gay marriage was stronger among those identifying themselves as Republicans, with 77.9 percent of respondents saying they opposed the issue either strongly or somewhat.

Among Democrats, nearly 58 percent said they opposed gay marriage with 1 in 3 saying they supported the issue and about 12 percent having no opinion.

The ruling by the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals in Denver pertains to a ban in the Utah state constitution against same-sex marriages, which is similar to a ban in Oklahoma’s constitution.

Wednesday’s ruling foreshadows a pending ruling by the appeals court on same-sex marriages in Oklahoma because of the similarity of the two cases and because the same judges who made the ruling will make the ruling in the Oklahoma case.

http://www.tulsaworld.com/homepage2/opposition-strong-to-gay-marriage-according-to-poll/article_386eb2aa-46f9-501b-808e-1c8be0c5bc24.html

[pbrower2a]

Oklahoma weighs in. There will be a court ruling from the Tenth District Court, and I predict that it will put Oklahoma at Stage 4, but until then it is in the deepest shade of red. We get to see what Oklahoma thinks of SSM for now.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Tan -- a state's appeal vacated at the Federal District Court, next step the US Supreme Court

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM


65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

Red -- opposition to SSM stronger than support.

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/01/kentucky-gay-marriage_n_5548179.html

The Governor intends to appeal the ruling. Kentucky is not friendly to SSM, according to its most recent poll, so it goes orange.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Tan -- a state's appeal vacated at the Federal District Court, next step the US Supreme Court

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM


65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

Red -- opposition to SSM stronger than support.

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Did Scott Walker appeal the decision on SSM in Wisconsin?

[pbrower2a]

Did Scott Walker appeal the decision on SSM in Wisconsin?

No, but J.B. Van Hollen did.

Question answered satisfactorily. Wisconsin reverts to green.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Tan -- a state's appeal vacated at the Federal District Court, next step the US Supreme Court

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM


65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

Red -- opposition to SSM stronger than support.

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)