Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[pbrower2a]

Nebraska and the Dakotas should be interesting.

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky.

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http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20140207/NEWS01/302070077/-1/7daysarchives/Same-sex-marriage-Bluegrass-poll-show-Kentuckians-views

The trend is clear.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

As I pointed out in that thread, its a horrible decision solely because it ignores all precedent concerning the scope of the full faith and credit clause.  There's no constitutional justification for forcing Kentucky to recognize SSMs done in other states without simultaneously forcing Kentucky to recognize SSMs done in Kentucky.

Judicial decisions are usually made on the narrowest of issues. Broad issues are matters for legislation. A state could prohibit same-sex marriage within its boundaries but recognizing lawful marriages from other states. Where states get fussy is on taxes.

[pbrower2a]

I'm still going on this.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

...

White may indicate that even temporarily that SSM is being permitted in the state, let alone that it is permitted as the result of legislation or some court dicision that existing laws do not prohibit SSM.

I will put Virginia in white when (1) same-sex marriage is permitted by legislation or initiative/referendum,  (2)  the state government loses its appeal of a court decision, (3) state government affirms the ruling without appeal, or (4) the state allows the 'opportunity' for an appeal to expire.

I doubt that much time will be necessary for Virginia to endorse SSM. Virginia is now more liberal than the US as a whole.   

[pbrower2a]

Kansas is evolving toward acceptance of same-sex marriage... and anti-gay discrimination is unpopular. The State legislature apparently went way too far.

February 18-20, 2014
Survey of 693 Kansas voters



3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

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For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

...

White may indicate that even temporarily that SSM is being permitted in the state, let alone that it is permitted as the result of legislation or some court dicision that existing laws do not prohibit SSM.

[pbrower2a]

The Dakotas and Nebraska should be very interesting. So should Missouri.

Except for North Carolina, every state that has ever voted for Barack Obama seems to be for the legalization of SSM.

SSM will be good for business, won't change fiscal or monetary policies, and won't give any aid to labor unions. It's going to succeed nationwide. Rationality will win.

[pbrower2a]

Rationality will win.

Quite the optimist, aren't you?  Or were you referring to just this issue?  On this issue you are likely right, but often it is the case that it is irrational to bet on rationality winning.

Only on this issue.

Very rarely do we see Big Business taking the liberal side, but this time it does.

[pbrower2a]

Homophobia -- a lost cause.

[pbrower2a]

I have a poll for Arkansas.  You may not take it since it is over a year old and it comes from the Human Rights Campaign, but it shows support for Gay Marriage at 38% to 55% who oppose it.

http://s1.daumcdn.net/editor/fp/service_nc/pencil/Pencil_chromestore.html

With the caveat that it is a very old poll for Arkansas, it could be relevant to a subsequent change. I expect more polls of Arkansas in view of hot 2014 races.  

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

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http://news.yahoo.com/judge-strikes-down-michigans-ban-gay-marriage-210904633.html

This one will likely stick.

[pbrower2a]

The only basic colors that we lack are black and violet/purple/lavender.

Accepting that 10% saturation for anything but "0" gets white, the five current colors get 40 different shades altogether. Purple would add eight more. Black would add seven more (because we already have a medium gray for selecting "0".

   

[pbrower2a]

To be honest, I don't even know why states that have gay marriage already aren't shaded. Are we not curious about public opinion in those states as well?

I'm pretty sure that all the states that have SSM have majority support, save for possibly Iowa and New Mexico.

Yeah, but the margin is the interesting part. If we're going to remove the shade from any state that already has gay marriage, won't it just become a carbon copy of Wikipedia's map eventually?

It's margins where same-sex marriage is not legal, with the qualification that once same-sex marriage is legal as the result of legislation or a legal ruling that sticks (appeals failed or denied) is treated as permanent.

We could have a color for legal limbo, but there are always questions of whether (1) appeals will be denied or upheld, and (2) the interpretation of a legal finding. Legalization of SSM under limited conditions (valid for marriages contracted out of state only, military only, Indian reservations only, permitted in a limited number of counties) probably does not qualify as full legalization.

In view of the nature of rulings, the narrowest interpretation is almost always the right one.

[pbrower2a]

To be honest, I don't even know why states that have gay marriage already aren't shaded. Are we not curious about public opinion in those states as well?

We may yet have the issue resolved in a USSC ruling analogous to Loving v. Virginia.

There is still much disapproval of interracial marriage, but there is some finality to court rulings.

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin, Marquette Law School.

If Wis voted today on continuing its constitutional ban on same sex marriage, 36% would keep ban, 59% would repeal.

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll

"How would people vote?" looks like a good proxy for approval. Should there be an initiative/referendum on the issue in Wisconsin in November, SSM wins -- big. 

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

The case seems settled in New Mexico:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/new-mexico-miscellany.html

A referendum against SSM would probably fail in New Mexico.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Feds OK Gay Marriages in Mich.

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March 28, 2014 11:34 AM

Governor Rick Snyder says that it's a marriage but it isn't really a marriage. There has never been a precedent for 'first-class marriages' and 'second-class marriages'. The Justice Department says that he is wrong.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2014/03/28/feds-ok-gay-marriages-in-mich.html#comments

I interpret this to mean that same-sex marriages made in the shortly-open window of opportunity are valid and equal even if subsequent SSM in Michigan is not authorized by legislation or a ruling of a court. I take the narrowest possible interpretation in case law. 

[pbrower2a]

-In 2012 North Carolinians voted by a 22 point margin to ban gay marriage in the state. Now less than 2 years later voters say they oppose gay marriage by only 13 points, mirroring the kind of movement we've seen on the issue across the country. 40% say they think it should be legal to 53% who continue to think it should be illegal. Showing the direction things are headed in on the issue, 62% of young voters support it to only 33% who believe it should be illegal.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more

Category change.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Louisiana: 42-53 opposed.  (The link has conflicting numbers on the opposition, I had to dig into the poll pdf itself to find the actual opposition number).

nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/04/gay_civil_unions_medical_marij.html

Category change.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

NYT/Kaiser polls:

Do you think it should be legal or not legal for same sex couples to marry?

AR: 35-57
KY: 38-54
LA: 36-56
NC: 44-49

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf

I don't know if this poll would fit the criteria for being included here, as it was conducted by the Political Science Dept of Texas Tech and not a major polling firm, but anyways...

Texas:  48-47 SUPPORT gay marriage

lubbockonline.com/filed-online/2014-04-17/tech-student-survey-shows-texans-torn-gay-marriage-not-governor

A junky poll, but I think it really shows the tides are turning when more support gay marriage in a poll that also has Abbott leading Davis 54-25(!?!).

I agree... the poll is crap all over.

Texas is extremely difficult to poll effectively. Because no state is a good analogue for this giant any poll involving Texas is suspect. Arizona is probably the most relevant analogue although more liberal or less fascistic, take your choice)... and Arizona seems amenable enough to gay rights.  Texas Tech is new at it, and it is in a very conservative part of Texas (take the Panhandle and the Permian Basin out of Texas and the state is basically another Florida).

With the caveat about any polling in Texas... I am accepting this one.  Opposition to gay marriage is not good for business, and business elites in Texas are more likely to concede on gay rights than on anti-union and anti-environmental policies.   

Texas is more urban than any other strong-R states except Utah and perhaps Arizona.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

I suspect that support for SSM correlates heavily to urbanization. The only highly-urban state in which SSM is unpopular is Utah. When the LDS hierarchy turns pro-SSM, Utah goes pro-SSM... fast!   

[pbrower2a]

When the LDS hierarchy turns pro-SSM, Utah goes pro-SSM... fast!   

*if

When the LDS hierarchy realizes that gay rights are much less of a concession than an asset, then the LDS hierarchy will move in favor of gay and lesbian rights (including SSM) -- much as it did on race.

The Mormons had a series of ads showing attractive people from unlikely origins and remarkable careers called "And I am a Mormon!"

It would be easier for the LDS Church to accept homosexuality than  something like drug abuse or alcoholism. 

[pbrower2a]

Same-Sex Marriage  (Quinnipiac, Florida)

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2036

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

The state closest to Florida in its politics is Ohio. Florida is very dissimilar to neighboring states in politics. Florida is a Southern state only in its latitude. Politically it is north of Missouri.

We are seeing the end of an era in most States in which Republicans can get political capital from bating homosexuals. 

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

- See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/#sthash.vjHmoY1e.dpuf

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

An Arkansas judge has struck down the state's gay marriage ban and has not issued a stay, meaning that the state will begin issuing licenses as early as Monday.  The AG has requested a stay, but based on the rhetoric of the ruling judge, I'd say that it's highly unlikely to be granted.  I'll color the state appropriately, but of course it will revert to its original shade if the present ruling is stayed or nullified.

I am going to suggest a category for states in which same-sex marriage has been authorized by a ruling of a court yet subject to an appeal. The color is pale blue, and I will apply it to both Arkansas (where such has happened) and now Idaho. Such can be a transition to white, signifying a more permanent legalization of SSM when the State either drops appeals or authorizes SSM through legislation or a successful referendum or initiative to the effect. Such may be a transition to one of the other colors (the most recent poll?) should the appeal be upheld. This is for the legalization of SSM in a state and not merely recognition of SSM performed elsewhere. 

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Light blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)