Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[pbrower2a]

Religion? No -- it is a primal concern about passing down genes, something deep in the irrational subconscious.

The only gays I know or have heard about whose parents have cut off contact with them, have all had deeply religious parents.

The point is than even pro-gay parents are usually upset a bit. Thye know life will be harder, than they won't pass down genes. I doubt any parent ever launched a party while learning their kid was gay.

I wouldn't throw a "My daughter is a prostitute" or "My son is a car thief" party, either.

[pbrower2a]

I doubt any parent ever launched a party while learning their kid was gay.

I wouldn't throw a "My daughter is a prostitute" or "My son is a car thief" party, either.

Those examples aren't on the same level as homosexuality at all.  Seems like a strange comment to make.

That is the point. At the least one can have a happy and wholesome life as a homosexual. One can't live a happy and wholesome life as a criminal or as a prostitute. Because homosexuals can do about anything that straight people can do other than maintain a heterosexual relationship, people can do some soul-searching and find that what seems distressing at first is not so horrible. Nothing good can be said of a life of criminality or of loveless sexuality for which nobody can find a rational defense.

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/20/virginia-gay-marriage_n_5694479.html?utm_hp_ref=gay-voices&ir=Gay%20Voices

[pbrower2a]

Maps suggesting that Virginia would recognize SSM deleted.

[pbrower2a]

So post your latest map then.

Just the most recent one. In most non-SSM states some political figure has effective veto power until the Supreme Court decides or that a State adopts SSM through initiative or referendum, the politician exercising the effective veto is defeated in an election.

Barring a decision of the US Supreme Court, I expect few changes before at least November.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district:

Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit
7th circuit
8th circuit
9th circuit
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd circuit courts have legalized SSM.

[pbrower2a]

Indiana and Wisconsin could be next. Opponents of SSM have been taking a rhetorical beating in the 7th Circuit Court.

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(This is much citation, but much is of citations or near-citations of persons arguing a case at law).

[pbrower2a]

Indiana and Wisconsin could be are next. Opponents of SSM have been taking a rhetorical beating in the 7th Circuit Court.

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/04/wisconsin-indiana-gay-marriage_n_5767710.html

[pbrower2a]

Subtle change. An asterisk, assuming that some Indiana pol will veto the legalization of SSM by appealing, as did the Attorney General of Wisconsin. About half of all Americans politicians are unreconstructed primitives. In view of such appeals I am not going to say that SSM is going on in Indiana or Wisconsin until same-sex couples start getting marriage licenses.

Judge Posner may have done more to kill prohibitions on SSM than anyone else.   


Barring a decision of the US Supreme Court, I still expect few changes before at least November. In any event I expect at most narrow rulings by the USSC.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district:

Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit
7th circuit*
8th circuit
9th circuit
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd circuit courts have legalized SSM. Those states in the 7th circuit have the strongest cases against an SSM ban.

[pbrower2a]

The Ninth Circuit will be hearing its case on September 8. The judges there will be Reinhardt (Carter-appointee and author of the Prop 8 case), Berzon (Clinton-appointee), and Gould (Clinton-appointee). This one could be a slam dunk for supporters of marriage equality. As with the Seventh Circuit, this could be another 3-0 unanimous ruling.

...Nevada could easily be next, assuming that someone in Indiana appeals for a stay. Of course if there is no stay in Indiana, then Indiana is next.

[pbrower2a]

So what happened?

So far every state (since Pennsylvania)  in which one of the appellate courts has deemed SSM bans void has some elected official who has effective veto power over the ruling -- and has used it, at the least to delay SSM in the state.

Some appeals will go to the US Supreme Court, which has usually taken a harsh view of nullification and delay in accommodating rulings by appellate courts.   

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/16/ruth-bader-ginsburg-gay-marriage_n_5833090.html

[pbrower2a]

The 7 missing pieces thus would become:

Alabama: Deep red
Idaho: Red
Oklahoma: Red
Missouri: Light red
Nebraska: Light red
South Dakota: Toss up
North Dakota: Green

Better than I had expected.

I am dropping this map because of the more complete map and adopting this one with modifications to be explained:

YouGov did all 50 states:

Gay Marriage?

[pbrower2a]

Recent YouGov map with appropriate modifications as of 6AM EST, 6 October 2014:

White -- SSM equality by law.
Yellow -- toss-up

I hereby abandon my earlier approval/disapproval/legality map and will make no further changes upon it.

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district in those in which SSM was not permanently legalized as of 6AM EST on 6 October 2014:

Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit*
7th circuit*
8th circuit
9th circuit*
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd circuit courts have legalized SSM.
Yellow -- toss-up.

Any district in which SSM is legalized by a decision of the US Supreme Court will go white.

[pbrower2a]

Assuming no shenanigans, next week 11 more states will be white. (How do you get a white color?)

Here is an example:

CA=4;55;1

"4" is yellow, and "1" gives a white color. I use "4" so that electoral votes can show up (for some other maps) because numbers show up as black on a state coded in yellow.   

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/07/us/denying-review-justices-clear-way-for-gay-marriage-in-5-states.html?_r=0

THERE IS NO APPEAL BEYOND THE US SUPREME COURT. Not the President. Not Congress. Not the UN. Not the Pope. Not even God Almighty.


History moved at glacial speed for a couple months, and one-tenth of all states are compelled to accept SSM with one decision.

Recent YouGov map with appropriate modifications as of 4PM EST, 6 October 2014:

White -- SSM equality by law.
Yellow -- toss-up

I hereby abandon my earlier approval/disapproval/legality map and will make no further changes upon it.

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district in those in which SSM was not permanently legalized as of 4PM EST on 6 October 2014:

Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit*
8th circuit
9th circuit*
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd circuit courts have legalized SSM.
Yellow -- toss-up.

Any district in which SSM is legalized by a decision of the US Supreme Court will go white.

[pbrower2a]

Here are the numbers:

Compiled results are listed below. The headers for each column are: State/ Support Legalising Gay Marriage/ Oppose Legalising Gay Marriage/ Net Support.

MA    71    19    +52
VT    71    20    +51
RI    68    20    +48
NH    63    24    +39
CT    61    26    +35
NY    61    27    +34
HI    59    26    +33
CA    58    31    +27
ME    63    37    +26
NM    57    32    +25
WA    57    32    +25
NV    55    31    +24
DE    54    31    +23
NJ    54    32    +22
OR    56    35    +21
IA    53    33    +20
IL    53    33    +20
CO    54    35    +19
MN    52    34    +18
AK    50    36    +14
WI    51    37    +14
MD    48    36    +12
PA    49    38    +11
ND    48    39    +9
MI    47    39    +8
AZ    47    40    +7
VA    47    40    +7
FL    46    40    +6
OH    45    40    +5
MT    45    41    +4
KS    44    41    +3
SD    43    43    0
IN    43    45    -2
NC    42    46    -4
MO    41    47    -6
NE    40    46    -6
LA    39    46    -7
WV    39    48    -9
GA    37    47    -10
SC    37    47    -10
KY    38    50    -12
TX    37    50    -13
OK    37    51    -14
WY    33    50    -17
ID    33    51    -18
AR    32    54    -22
UT    34    56    -22
MS    29    56    -27
TN    29    58    -29
AL    28    60    -32

US    48    39    +9


state in which SSM is lawful

[pbrower2a]

As I recall, the states of Indiana and Wisconsin had their anti-SSM laws ripped to pieces with the Seventh federal circuit court treating the arguments for SSM bans as practically void, comparing them to anti-miscegenation acts invalid since Loving v. Virginia. All that was left was an appeal used entirely as a delaying tactic.      

[pbrower2a]

We should focus on targeting the states at the bottom of the list, just to twist the knife a little

Idaho is sixth from the bottom.

Dislike same-sex marriage? Then don't have one!

Wait, what?

I'm saying we should focus on making gay marriage legal in states that hate it the most first, just to ruin SoCons' lives and bask in the irony (like when it was legalized in Utah in January).

Did you think I was against gay marriage? Because I'm gay, and support it.

That's OK.  I have no way of determining whether someone is straight or gay in print unless someone self-identifies  or says something blatant -- either exposing details of personal life or some pathetic denial, as if I care, anyway . Can you easily identify who is... black... from what he posts?

I think that we can all recognize the callousness, exploitation, cruelty, and danger that go with homophobia. It's not only gay-bashing of the thug (which I have encountered, and I responded with the only reasonable defense at the time -- running or driving away); it is also the intra-family abuse that arises when parents cast off a gay son or lesbian daughter. A few years ago I found that of males under the age of eighteen who commit suicide, a third are gay. Family rejection stings hard.

We are beginning to recognize the vapidness of arguments are against same-sex marriage.

... As for Utah -- the Mormons are a conservative lot, but they can bend to social change. If you remember the ad campaign of the LDS Church (basically, "I live an interesting life, and I come from an unlikely background -- and I am a Mormon")...   some campaign could soon follow:

I live an interesting life, I am gay/lesbian, and I am a Mormon.  
 

    

[pbrower2a]

Idaho and Nevada reverts for now.

Recent YouGov map with appropriate modifications as of 5PM EST, 8 October 2014:

White -- SSM equality by law.
Yellow -- toss-up

I hereby abandon my earlier approval/disapproval/legality map and will make no further changes upon it.

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district in those in which SSM was not permanently legalized as of 4PM EST on 6 October 2014:

Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit*
8th circuit
9th circuit*
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd circuit courts have legalized SSM.
Yellow -- toss-up.

Any district in which SSM is legalized by a decision of the US Supreme Court will go white.

[pbrower2a]

Here are the numbers:

Compiled results are listed below. The headers for each column are: State/ Support Legalising Gay Marriage/ Oppose Legalising Gay Marriage/ Net Support.

MA    71    19    +52
VT    71    20    +51
RI    68    20    +48
NH    63    24    +39
CT    61    26    +35
NY    61    27    +34
HI    59    26    +33
CA    58    31    +27
ME    63    37    +26
NM    57    32    +25
WA    57    32    +25
NV    55    31    +24
DE    54    31    +23
NJ    54    32    +22
OR    56    35    +21
IA    53    33    +20
IL    53    33    +20
CO    54    35    +19
MN    52    34    +18
AK    50    36    +14
WI    51    37    +14
MD    48    36    +12
PA    49    38    +11
ND    48    39    +9
MI    47    39    +8
AZ    47    40    +7
VA    47    40    +7
FL    46    40    +6
OH    45    40    +5
MT    45    41    +4
KS    44    41    +3
SD    43    43    0
IN    43    45    -2
NC    42    46    -4
MO    41    47    -6
NE    40    46    -6
LA    39    46    -7
WV    39    48    -9
GA    37    47    -10
SC    37    47    -10
KY    38    50    -12
TX    37    50    -13
OK    37    51    -14
WY    33    50    -17
ID    33    51    -18
AR    32    54    -22
UT    34    56    -22
MS    29    56    -27
TN    29    58    -29
AL    28    60    -32

US    48    39    +9


state in which SSM is lawful

[pbrower2a]

Some county judges in Kansas, North Carolina, and South Carolina have allowed applications for SSM -- but such can still be stopped by higher authorities in the States. If it applies to one county but not to all by law, then the state in question is not considered 'permissive'.

[pbrower2a]

West Virginia: the state's attorney-general gives in.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/09/west-virginia-gay-marriage_n_5960096.html?utm_hp_ref=gay-marriage

Recent YouGov map with appropriate modifications as of 2PM EST, 9 October 2014:

White -- SSM equality by law.
Yellow -- toss-up

 

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district in those in which SSM was not permanently legalized as of 2 PM EST on 9 October 2014:

Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit*
8th circuit
9th circuit*
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 7th appellate districts have legalized SSM.


Here are the numbers:

Compiled results are listed below. The headers for each column are: State/ Support Legalising Gay Marriage/ Oppose Legalising Gay Marriage/ Net Support.

MA    71    19    +52
VT    71    20    +51
RI    68    20    +48
NH    63    24    +39
CT    61    26    +35
NY    61    27    +34
HI    59    26    +33
CA    58    31    +27
ME    63    37    +26
NM    57    32    +25
WA    57    32    +25
NV    55    31    +24
DE    54    31    +23
NJ    54    32    +22
OR    56    35    +21
IA    53    33    +20
IL    53    33    +20
CO    54    35    +19
MN    52    34    +18
AK    50    36    +14
WI    51    37    +14
MD    48    36    +12
PA    49    38    +11
ND    48    39    +9
MI    47    39    +8
AZ    47    40    +7
VA    47    40    +7
FL    46    40    +6
OH    45    40    +5
MT    45    41    +4
KS    44    41    +3
SD    43    43    0
IN    43    45    -2
NC    42    46    -4
MO    41    47    -6
NE    40    46    -6
LA    39    46    -7
WV    39    48    -9
GA    37    47    -10
SC    37    47    -10
KY    38    50    -12
TX    37    50    -13
OK    37    51    -14
WY    33    50    -17
ID    33    51    -18
AR    32    54    -22
UT    34    56    -22
MS    29    56    -27
TN    29    58    -29
AL    28    60    -32

US    48    39    +9


state in which SSM equality is in effect

[pbrower2a]

NC should also be in white because AG Copper and Gov. McCrory have said they will not fight against same-sex marriage.

Once definitive.  It is now:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/10/north-carolina-gay-marriage_n_5968130.html?utm_hp_ref=gay-marriage

Likewise, Idaho.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/10/gay-marriage-idaho_n_5968016.html?utm_hp_ref=gay-marriage


Recent YouGov map with appropriate modifications as of 6PM EST, 10 October 2014:

White -- SSM equality by law.
Yellow -- toss-up

 

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district in those in which SSM was not permanently legalized as of 2 PM EST on 9 October 2014:

Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit*
8th circuit
9th circuit*
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 7th appellate districts have legalized SSM.


Here are the numbers:

Compiled results are listed below. The headers for each column are: State/ Support Legalising Gay Marriage/ Oppose Legalising Gay Marriage/ Net Support.

MA    71    19    +52
VT    71    20    +51
RI    68    20    +48
NH    63    24    +39
CT    61    26    +35
NY    61    27    +34
HI    59    26    +33
CA    58    31    +27
ME    63    37    +26
NM    57    32    +25
WA    57    32    +25
NV    55    31    +24
DE    54    31    +23
NJ    54    32    +22
OR    56    35    +21
IA    53    33    +20
IL    53    33    +20
CO    54    35    +19
MN    52    34    +18
AK    50    36    +14
WI    51    37    +14
MD    48    36    +12
PA    49    38    +11
ND    48    39    +9
MI    47    39    +8
AZ    47    40    +7
VA    47    40    +7
FL    46    40    +6
OH    45    40    +5
MT    45    41    +4
KS    44    41    +3
SD    43    43    0
IN    43    45    -2
NC    42    46    -4
MO    41    47    -6
NE    40    46    -6
LA    39    46    -7
WV    39    48    -9
GA    37    47    -10
SC    37    47    -10
KY    38    50    -12
TX    37    50    -13
OK    37    51    -14
WY    33    50    -17
ID    33    51    -18
AR    32    54    -22
UT    34    56    -22
MS    29    56    -27
TN    29    58    -29
AL    28    60    -32

US    48    39    +9


state in which SSM equality is in effect

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[pbrower2a]

One week, and ten dominoes. We get to see the judicial process work. History is happening in America, and it could overshadow a hotly-contested election.

This is remarkable, indeed. 

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/13/catholic-church-gays-_n_5976134.html?utm_hp_ref=gay-voices&ir=Gay%20Voices

My comment on Huffington Post:

(Is the Papacy) less advanced than secular and humanist ethics on homosexuality? Of course. It's relevant because of all the Catholics who do not yet accept secular and humanist ethics unless the Pope says that such is acceptable.

Maybe there is an ulterior motive -- like ensuring that there be more married Catholic couples capable of adopting children and raising them as Catholics, which might lead to a reduction in abortion. As a secular humanist I would easily make that concession to the Catholic Church. Accept SSM, but recognize that such implies more Catholic households (because of acceptance of SSM) and perhaps a reduction in abortions? That is a win-win proposition for me.

Secular humanists have gone as far as they can in getting people to accept gay and lesbian rights because there aren't that many secular humanists who remain unconvinced on homosexual rights. If we get an ally in the Pope -- wonderful. Many pay attention to what the Pope says on ethical issues. If devout, non-secular Catholics can accept same-sex marriage, then one political excuse for opposing SSM dies. Some states with large Catholic populations (Arizona, Florida, Louisiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas) still have statutory bans on SSM.

PS: I am using my late mother's Facebook account due to the difficulty of changing identities on Facebook. She has yet to complain.