Is this a possible map for the general?
Obama vs. Romney
I know there are a few strange things. Noticeably Ohio going for Obama and Pennsylvania going for Romney. But I figure it's possible given the current polling. I would think Arizona would be the deciding state and though I think it's possible (and perhaps likely) that it would vote for Romney in the above scenario...it may just perhaps pick the winner...let me know your thoughts...
Recent partisan polls that showed the President losing Michigan and Florida are to be ignored. The most recent poll of Pennsylvania was taken at a recent nadir for support for the President, and that showed the President winning against everyone but Romney, but tying Romney. If he must campaign in Pennsylvania, then the President will, and his campaign will flood the state with campaign ads, and he will win the state.
Nevada looked close throughout 2008 and went decidedly for Obama. The Obama campaign, should it do what it did in 2008, will flood the state with volunteers from California; some of them will change their legal residence (which is legal) and sway the state.
Iowa and New Hampshire are now getting much attention from Republican pols who have disagreed on about everything except that President Obama is the reincarnation of Nero, Attila the Hun, Dracula, and Ivan the Terrible combined. Once the early caucuses and primaries are over and Republican candidates are no longer dominating the political spotlight, the states go back to normal with their recent leans D.
It's only one electoral vote, but the most recent configuration of NE-02 (Greater Omaha) went for President Obama and was last polled (this year) even more supportive of the President. To be sure, the district could be reconfigured to lose some Democratic voters and gain some Republican voters -- but enough to swing the district?
Nobody knows a d@mned thing about Indiana now except that it went for President Obama in 2008 and is probably less D than Ohio by about 3%. If the Republicans tea-bag Senator Lugar successfully, then this state will be seen as fair game for Democrats, and you can expect a few campaign appearances by the President for the Democratic nominee for the Senate and for Democrats running for Congress. But that is a big 'if'. Until I see something I am going to treat Indiana as a blank.
I don't see President Obama winning Arizona except if the retiree or near-retiree voters get scared about either Social Security or Medicare. But at that it is a shaky R, as must be Georgia and Missouri. Sure, they are only 'university' polls, and they came when nationwide support for the President was high for the time, but those suggest that Tennessee will be "shaky R" for Romney. Kentucky usually votes with Tennessee, so it goes to the "Shaky R" category.
Finally, North Carolina has largely been either 'shaky D' or a virtual tie in Romney-Obama matchups, so I call North Carolina "shaky D".